There are a lot of "meaningless" games this weekend. But there are 9 teams playing for the final 4 open playoff spots. And 2 games feature some of those teams going head-to-head. For those 9 teams, the playoffs start Sunday
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
This should be the game of the week. Both of these teams have been winning lately. That is an anomaly in the NFC. The Saints have won 3 straight and the Panthers have risen from the ashes of a 1-7 start. The winner is not guaranteed a playoff spot, but the loser is definitely out. The Panthers have won 4 of their 5 meetings, and get the Saints at home. The Panthers' defense and running game should stop the Saints and put Carolina in the Playoffs.
New York Jets at St Louis Rams
Please, God! Don't let the Rams in the playoffs! Anyone but the Rams!! The Rams have been schizophrenic all year, and now a player has threatened Martz. Martz re-discovered his running game last week, but that doesn't mean he'll use it this week. And you shouldn't put too much stock in the fact that the Rams beat the Eagles on MNF. The Eagles weren't just resting, they were sleep-walking. If St Louis loses, they are out of the playoff. If they win, they could win the division title.
Every Jets loss has come against a playoff caliber team. They just don't lose to inferior teams. Their defense needs to play well and Martin must get his carries for the Jets to win. This will be a very entertaining game, and the Jets should pull away at the end to sew up a playoff spot. Finally. The Jets are in with a win, but could be out of the playoffs with a loss.
This will be a good one to watch. The Jets should pull this out easily, but it will depend on which Rams team, and which Mike Martz, shows up.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
The Steelers will rest a lot of their players, so the Bills have a chance to pull off the victory. Most of the Bills' wins lately have been against losing teams, so this will be a good test for their offense. They have proved they can win, now they have to beat a playoff-caliber team to possibly earn a spot.
Even a depleted Steelers team can do some damage and Cowher will have the players fired up. I think the Steelers' defense will shut the Bills down and Pittsburgh will win a close one.
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins
For the second year in a row the Vikings are choking hard at the end of the season. A lack of defense will do that to you. The reward is that coach Tice gets a contract extension. Go figure. If the Vikings lose and miss the playoffs, Tice loses all credibility and the Vikings can look ahead to one more year of mediocrity.
The Redskins are out of the hunt, but every player knows that Gibbs will be watching them closely. They are also playing with a lot of injuries.
The Vikings should be able to control the clock, and their defense should be able to stop the Portis-less Redskins. The Vikes will win a close one.
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks
The Falcons will be resting several players and won't show the Seahawks too much since they might play again in a couple of weeks. But having a team lay down for them doesn't mean the Seahawks will win. The have shown that they can lose to any team, any time, anywhere.
In a battle of running games, take Seattle. Just don't bet any actual money on them.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Tony Dungy rested his Buccaneers team a few years ago in their final regular season game and they rewarded him by losing their first playoff game. Don't be surprised if the Colts come out with their starters in the first quarter and maybe even the second. Manning wants 50 and Edge would love another rushing TD. The Colts will be aggressive in the first half, but, if they're smart, they'll sit the studs for the last 2 or 3 quarters.
If the Broncos face the Colts' starters, it will be a good test for them. Either way, Denver should be able to overcome any deficit in the 2nd half and pull out the victory. The Broncos are in with a win, but would also still have a shot if they lost.
The best scenario for Denver would be to win this game and have the Jets lose. This would send Denver to San Diego instead of Indianapolis in playoff week 1. We all saw what happened when Denver played the Colts twice at the end of last season. Colts 41-10.
Friday, December 31, 2004
Thursday, December 30, 2004
Rest Your Starters?
This seems to be the question of the week. NFL.com has an interesting article on this, and it just shows that a lot of intelligent people can disagree on anything.
My take is that teams might be able to get away with resting their starters for a single week, but resting for longer than that will cause problems. You can look at almost any past year and find examples of teams taking it easy for 3 or 4 weeks and then gagging in their first playoff game. As a Bronco fan, the '96 loss to the Jags is a painful reminder of how difficult it can be to turn on the intensity once it has been turned down.
In the case of the Colts, Chargers, and Packers it makes sense to play your starters for a series or two, then sit them. It is only a single week. The Colts have been saying that records don't mean as much as playoff victories, we'll see if Manning plays past the 1st quarter. If so, he is playing for a record and nothing else.
For the Eagles, however, it is a very different scenario. They have lost TO, who just happens to have most of their receptions this year. McNabb should be working on his timing with other receivers and the coaches should be experimenting with options to help make up for the loss of Owens. If Andy Reid takes another game off this week, it will mean the Eagles will return to the field for their first playoff game after not playing hard for 4 weeks. That is an entire month!! And they'll be doing it without the league's (possible) MVP.
It will be interesting to see how the Steelers' and Patriots' performances compare to the Eagles' and Falcons', who are also resting players this week. Both Pittsburgh and New England were playing all-out until this weekend. They should both be pretty sharp when they take the field in the post-season.
Finally, it is tempting to say that the Eagles and Falcons will not have a good team to challenge them in their first playoff games. The NFC has been persistently pathetic all season! But take a look at how Carolina has played recently! Atlanta should know better then to take them for granted. Green Bay has not played their best ball recently, but they have the offense (and Favre) that can beat anyone in a close game.
Philly could pay for the long rest-period with another disappointing exit from the playoffs. On the other hand, the banged up defense could heal up and come out playing great football. Intelligent people can disagree, but it always gets settled on the field. Only time will tell who is right.
My take is that teams might be able to get away with resting their starters for a single week, but resting for longer than that will cause problems. You can look at almost any past year and find examples of teams taking it easy for 3 or 4 weeks and then gagging in their first playoff game. As a Bronco fan, the '96 loss to the Jags is a painful reminder of how difficult it can be to turn on the intensity once it has been turned down.
In the case of the Colts, Chargers, and Packers it makes sense to play your starters for a series or two, then sit them. It is only a single week. The Colts have been saying that records don't mean as much as playoff victories, we'll see if Manning plays past the 1st quarter. If so, he is playing for a record and nothing else.
For the Eagles, however, it is a very different scenario. They have lost TO, who just happens to have most of their receptions this year. McNabb should be working on his timing with other receivers and the coaches should be experimenting with options to help make up for the loss of Owens. If Andy Reid takes another game off this week, it will mean the Eagles will return to the field for their first playoff game after not playing hard for 4 weeks. That is an entire month!! And they'll be doing it without the league's (possible) MVP.
It will be interesting to see how the Steelers' and Patriots' performances compare to the Eagles' and Falcons', who are also resting players this week. Both Pittsburgh and New England were playing all-out until this weekend. They should both be pretty sharp when they take the field in the post-season.
Finally, it is tempting to say that the Eagles and Falcons will not have a good team to challenge them in their first playoff games. The NFC has been persistently pathetic all season! But take a look at how Carolina has played recently! Atlanta should know better then to take them for granted. Green Bay has not played their best ball recently, but they have the offense (and Favre) that can beat anyone in a close game.
Philly could pay for the long rest-period with another disappointing exit from the playoffs. On the other hand, the banged up defense could heal up and come out playing great football. Intelligent people can disagree, but it always gets settled on the field. Only time will tell who is right.
Wednesday, December 29, 2004
The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
The Good
The Denver Broncos are in playoff position and will be playing a Colts team with nothing to play for. And they may be getting Trevor Pryce back for the playoffs, which puts their defense back into the top 5 in the NFL. They have missed Pryce, and it shows in their recent slide. Getting him back could make them a force in the AFC playoffs.
The Bad
Bad decisions have been the rule in Minnesota since Red McCombs took over, and we can add another one to the list. Red has decided that the bottom line is more important than winning and has picked up the option for Mike Tice to remain as coach for one more year. ESPN reports that Tice is considered to be a player's coach. If that is so, it's time for the players to start performing. A team that disintegrates down the stretch in two consecutive seasons can't be considered a well-coached team.
The Ugly
Notre Dame football this year. Has their been an uglier season than this for Irish fans? Recently? Last night's loss in the Insight Bowl was as ugly as it gets. Coach Weiss can't get there soon enough!
The Denver Broncos are in playoff position and will be playing a Colts team with nothing to play for. And they may be getting Trevor Pryce back for the playoffs, which puts their defense back into the top 5 in the NFL. They have missed Pryce, and it shows in their recent slide. Getting him back could make them a force in the AFC playoffs.
The Bad
Bad decisions have been the rule in Minnesota since Red McCombs took over, and we can add another one to the list. Red has decided that the bottom line is more important than winning and has picked up the option for Mike Tice to remain as coach for one more year. ESPN reports that Tice is considered to be a player's coach. If that is so, it's time for the players to start performing. A team that disintegrates down the stretch in two consecutive seasons can't be considered a well-coached team.
The Ugly
Notre Dame football this year. Has their been an uglier season than this for Irish fans? Recently? Last night's loss in the Insight Bowl was as ugly as it gets. Coach Weiss can't get there soon enough!
Monday, December 27, 2004
Carolina Panthers One Win Away From History
The Carolina Panthers can clinch a wildcard berth in the NFC next week by beating the New Orleans Saints. No team has ever started 1-7 and made the playoffs. For the Panthers, the formula is simple; win and your in, lose and go home. I don't think the Saints can beat this team, but I didn't think they would win any of their last 3 games, either.
The Saints won their third straight, thanks to the Falcons sitting their QB for the game. But give New Orleans some credit. They scored on a pretty good defense, and they have won 3 straight crucial games. Nobody else in the NFC other than the Panthers can say that. Next week's showdown with Carolina will be a grewat game to watch!
Minnesota lost to the Packers, but if the Rams lose tonight they can accomplish what the Vikings are incapable of on their own. Putting the Vikes in the playoffs. Of cours the Vikings could just win their last game, but that just conjures up memories of last year's collapse in Phoenix.
If the Rams lose to the Eagles they will also put themselves out of our misery and will be eliminated from the playoffs. Go Eagles! Very few teams in the NFC are less deserving of a playoff berth than the Rams!
An Eagles victory would also hand the West to the Seahawks. Which would make Seattle the worst division winner since a certain 8-8 Browns team from many years ago.
The Saints won their third straight, thanks to the Falcons sitting their QB for the game. But give New Orleans some credit. They scored on a pretty good defense, and they have won 3 straight crucial games. Nobody else in the NFC other than the Panthers can say that. Next week's showdown with Carolina will be a grewat game to watch!
Minnesota lost to the Packers, but if the Rams lose tonight they can accomplish what the Vikings are incapable of on their own. Putting the Vikes in the playoffs. Of cours the Vikings could just win their last game, but that just conjures up memories of last year's collapse in Phoenix.
If the Rams lose to the Eagles they will also put themselves out of our misery and will be eliminated from the playoffs. Go Eagles! Very few teams in the NFC are less deserving of a playoff berth than the Rams!
An Eagles victory would also hand the West to the Seahawks. Which would make Seattle the worst division winner since a certain 8-8 Browns team from many years ago.
Reggie White Passes Away
Reggie White died over the weekend. All the sports shows are doing their memorials and there is little I can add. I will just say this; Reggie White was a feared opponent and a respected man. That is more rare in sports than it should be. We have lost a great man of faith who just happened to be a great football player!! He will be missed!
Life Without Football
How depressing! I am visiting family for the holidays (not the depressing part) and they don't have NFL Sunday Ticket (THE depressing part) and I had forgotten how terrible is was to be at the mercy of the local regional telecast gods. We did get to see the Steelers dominate the Ravens. But then it was Saints/VicklessFalcons and Cardinals/Seahawks. Blecchhh!!
Saturday, December 25, 2004
A Lump of Coal For The Vikings
It looked promising for a while. But the Vikings self-destructed at the end of the game and let the Pack open the division-title-gift, leaving the Vikes feeling like Ralphie after opening the gifts under the tree and not yet finding the Red Rider BB gun.
And now for my Christmas wish. I want a coach with the stones to go for it on 4th down inside the opponents 40 yard line! I want a team that doesn't come on the field with possession of the ball at midfield with 2:00 left and end up at 3rd and 26 after 2 bonehead penalties! I want a defense that could at least stop a girl scout troop from marching for the game-winning field goal!
Maybe the Broncos can do their Rudolph impression and save Christmas by beating the Titans...
And now for my Christmas wish. I want a coach with the stones to go for it on 4th down inside the opponents 40 yard line! I want a team that doesn't come on the field with possession of the ball at midfield with 2:00 left and end up at 3rd and 26 after 2 bonehead penalties! I want a defense that could at least stop a girl scout troop from marching for the game-winning field goal!
Maybe the Broncos can do their Rudolph impression and save Christmas by beating the Titans...
Friday, December 24, 2004
Happy Holidays!!!
The ArDubby family made the trek from Minneapolis to Denver on Wednesday and Thursday and will be thawing out in Denver for the Holidays. Blogging will be light, but I will try to post a little each day.
We wish everyone a very Happy and safe Holiday Season!!
Please keep our soldiers in your thoughts and prayers!! And may God bring them home before next Christmas!!
We wish everyone a very Happy and safe Holiday Season!!
Please keep our soldiers in your thoughts and prayers!! And may God bring them home before next Christmas!!
Week 16 Preview
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans
The Broncos travel to Tennessee looking for some sort of spark to get them out of their slump. They know if they lose here they are out of the playoff race. After the debacle at KC, look for the Broncos to come out fast. Tatum Bell will get most of the work at RB and could ignite this team with a few big runs. Denver must stop turning the ball over and the defense must show up this week if the Broncos are to have any chance. I see a Denver victory on Saturday.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
The Falcons are resting Vick, so the Saints have a good chance to win this one and keep their playoff hopes alive for another week. But Atlanta's running game should be enough to overcome the Saints.
Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers
This could be a trap game for the Bills. With their playoff hopes still alive, they must come out strong. Buffalo's defense should have a big day here and hand the offense several opportunities. As long as the Bill are looking past the 49ers to Pittsburgh next week, they should win this one easily.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
This game could decide a lot of things; the NFC West title, the Seahawks playoff future, and Mike Holmgren's future as coach of the team. Even in the victory over Minnesota, the Seahawks looked like a team that is lost. If Seattle wins, they should take the West and move on to first-round elimination. If the Cardinals win, they are in position to win the NFC West with a 7-9 record.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
This is the game of the week! The Ravens are the only team that has beaten the Steelers this year, so Pittsburgh will be fired up for revenge and to clinch home-field advantage. The Ravens are clinging to their own playoff hopes and desparately need to upset the Steelers. If the Steelers win, it could hand a playoff berth to Jacksonville and give more hope to Denver and Buffalo, if the Ravens win, it keeps the AFC playoff picture fuzzy for another week and makes it even more difficult for the Bills to beat Pittsburgh next week. I think the Steelers will win a close one, Baltimore just doesn't have the offense to pull off the sweep this year.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a big trap game for the Jags. After going to Green Bay and shocking the Pack last week, it would be real easy for the Jaguars to let down a bit. But Fred Taylor has really found his stride and Jacksonville will use him to control the clock. And the Jags defense should be able to shut down the Texans.
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
This will also be a very good game to watch. It should be a high-scoring game, but remember that Schottenheimer likes to use the run to control the clock. That could take the Colts out of their game by keeping them off the field. The real question is, can the Chargers defense stop the Colts offense. Probably not. I think the Colts will win a close one.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Two very good teams going at it. The Patriots' only hope of home-field advantage is to win their last two games. The should be angry about how they lost on Monday night and come out strong. The Jets want to lock up their position and show that they can play with these elite teams. It will be a close game, but I can't see the Pats losing two in a row.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay blew it against the Saints and their playoff hopes are hanging by the thinnest of threads. The Panthers should put them out of it for good. Carolina's running game will keep the Bucs off balance and their defense should be able to stop Tampa from scoring more than two TDs. Carolina knows they can lock up a spot with a win and some help, so they will be fired up.
Philadelphia Eagles at St Louis Rams
Can the Rams beat the Eagles without TO. I don't think so. The Eagles are hurt by Owens' injury, but they still have a stellar defense and a decent running game. The Eagles also now have something to play for, showing they can win without TO. The Rams are banged up and have been playing some bad ball lately. The Eagles win, and Martz finds himself on the hot-seat. And the Cardinals come one step closer to the NFC West division title.
The Broncos travel to Tennessee looking for some sort of spark to get them out of their slump. They know if they lose here they are out of the playoff race. After the debacle at KC, look for the Broncos to come out fast. Tatum Bell will get most of the work at RB and could ignite this team with a few big runs. Denver must stop turning the ball over and the defense must show up this week if the Broncos are to have any chance. I see a Denver victory on Saturday.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
The Falcons are resting Vick, so the Saints have a good chance to win this one and keep their playoff hopes alive for another week. But Atlanta's running game should be enough to overcome the Saints.
Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers
This could be a trap game for the Bills. With their playoff hopes still alive, they must come out strong. Buffalo's defense should have a big day here and hand the offense several opportunities. As long as the Bill are looking past the 49ers to Pittsburgh next week, they should win this one easily.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
This game could decide a lot of things; the NFC West title, the Seahawks playoff future, and Mike Holmgren's future as coach of the team. Even in the victory over Minnesota, the Seahawks looked like a team that is lost. If Seattle wins, they should take the West and move on to first-round elimination. If the Cardinals win, they are in position to win the NFC West with a 7-9 record.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
This is the game of the week! The Ravens are the only team that has beaten the Steelers this year, so Pittsburgh will be fired up for revenge and to clinch home-field advantage. The Ravens are clinging to their own playoff hopes and desparately need to upset the Steelers. If the Steelers win, it could hand a playoff berth to Jacksonville and give more hope to Denver and Buffalo, if the Ravens win, it keeps the AFC playoff picture fuzzy for another week and makes it even more difficult for the Bills to beat Pittsburgh next week. I think the Steelers will win a close one, Baltimore just doesn't have the offense to pull off the sweep this year.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a big trap game for the Jags. After going to Green Bay and shocking the Pack last week, it would be real easy for the Jaguars to let down a bit. But Fred Taylor has really found his stride and Jacksonville will use him to control the clock. And the Jags defense should be able to shut down the Texans.
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
This will also be a very good game to watch. It should be a high-scoring game, but remember that Schottenheimer likes to use the run to control the clock. That could take the Colts out of their game by keeping them off the field. The real question is, can the Chargers defense stop the Colts offense. Probably not. I think the Colts will win a close one.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Two very good teams going at it. The Patriots' only hope of home-field advantage is to win their last two games. The should be angry about how they lost on Monday night and come out strong. The Jets want to lock up their position and show that they can play with these elite teams. It will be a close game, but I can't see the Pats losing two in a row.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay blew it against the Saints and their playoff hopes are hanging by the thinnest of threads. The Panthers should put them out of it for good. Carolina's running game will keep the Bucs off balance and their defense should be able to stop Tampa from scoring more than two TDs. Carolina knows they can lock up a spot with a win and some help, so they will be fired up.
Philadelphia Eagles at St Louis Rams
Can the Rams beat the Eagles without TO. I don't think so. The Eagles are hurt by Owens' injury, but they still have a stellar defense and a decent running game. The Eagles also now have something to play for, showing they can win without TO. The Rams are banged up and have been playing some bad ball lately. The Eagles win, and Martz finds himself on the hot-seat. And the Cardinals come one step closer to the NFC West division title.
Wednesday, December 22, 2004
Week 16 Preview: Packers at Vikings
The winner of this game takes the NFC North division title, the #3 seed in the NFC playoffs, and gets a home game in the first round. The loser has to travel in the first week.
The Minnesota Vikings learned some lessons against Seattle two weeks ago. The biggest lesson of all was don't try to score too fast to take a lead at the end of a game. They also learned that they should use the clock better, and use their running game to better advantage at the end of a game.
Against the Lions, the Vikes put those lessons to good use and found that their running game is an effective weapon at the end of a game. But they also found that the running game can score too fast, too, and the Lions were left with enough time to get into the end zone. Only a botched extra point prevented OT.
The Packers struggled against Jacksonville and as a result they let the game slip away. And now they are in danger of losing the division title to Minnesota. Green Bay has shown a tendency to play poorly early, then coming storming back. It worked against Detroit, but failed against the Jags. If they start slow against the Vikings, they may find themselves too far behind to catch up.
Brett Favre and the Packers usually don't play well at the Metrodome, and both defenses struggle against the pass. This game will be a shootout, and it will probably come down to the final two minutes. If that is the case, neither team can afford to let the other team have the ball after the two-minute warning with a chance to drive for the winning score.
I think the Vikings will pull out a close one, but if the Pack starts strong, the Vikings could be in for a very Scrooged-like Christmas.
The Minnesota Vikings learned some lessons against Seattle two weeks ago. The biggest lesson of all was don't try to score too fast to take a lead at the end of a game. They also learned that they should use the clock better, and use their running game to better advantage at the end of a game.
Against the Lions, the Vikes put those lessons to good use and found that their running game is an effective weapon at the end of a game. But they also found that the running game can score too fast, too, and the Lions were left with enough time to get into the end zone. Only a botched extra point prevented OT.
The Packers struggled against Jacksonville and as a result they let the game slip away. And now they are in danger of losing the division title to Minnesota. Green Bay has shown a tendency to play poorly early, then coming storming back. It worked against Detroit, but failed against the Jags. If they start slow against the Vikings, they may find themselves too far behind to catch up.
Brett Favre and the Packers usually don't play well at the Metrodome, and both defenses struggle against the pass. This game will be a shootout, and it will probably come down to the final two minutes. If that is the case, neither team can afford to let the other team have the ball after the two-minute warning with a chance to drive for the winning score.
I think the Vikings will pull out a close one, but if the Pack starts strong, the Vikings could be in for a very Scrooged-like Christmas.
Tuesday, December 21, 2004
AP Pulls Out of BCS !!
ESPN is reporting that the AP Poll will withdraw from the BCS next year. The AP may be delivering a huge Christmas gift to college football fans!! We will have to wait and see the details, but you have hope that this is the first step toward a real college football playoff system.
AFC Playoff Picture
Division Winners
1. Pittsburgh -- The Steelers only need one win to clinch home field throughout the playoffs. They should get it this weekend.
2. New England -- They stumbled in Miami and it may cost them.
3. San Diego -- They won in the cold in Cleveland, if they beat Indy this week the Chargers will have shown they can go anywhere and win.
4. Indianapolis -- With a win against the Chargers, the Colts would move into the #3 spot. That may not mean much, except NOT catching the Jets in the first week of the playoffs.
Wildcards
5. New York Jets -- The Jets have had a tough schedule lately and it doesn't get any easier this week against the Pats. But they've shown they can play with anyone, and the Chargers and Colts loser will probably get stuck playing them in the first round. If there is a wildcard team capable of going all the way this year, it is the Jets.
6. Jacksonville -- Everything went their way last week and the Jags are now in the driver's seat. They play at home against the Texans this week, then finish at Oakland. The running game is working and the defense is a good one, so they are definitely the team to beat for that last spot. I don't see them giving it up.
Outside Looking In
7. Baltimore -- Their grueling schedule gets grueling-er this weeks as the Ravens go to Pittsburgh. If they pull off the upset and get some help, they could get right back into it. The defense is still good, but there are some chinks in the armor.
8. Denver -- The Broncos are going in the wrong direction, fast! The running game is letting them down, the receivers are young and dropping passes, Plummer is reverting to Arizona form, and the defense is faltering badly. This is a team in search of some answers. A win this week would help, but they would need a lot of other help to move up since they lose most tiebreakers. It doesn't look good for my Broncos!
9. Buffalo -- The Bills had many things go right for them last weekend. Now they travel to San Francisco for an apparently easy game. But they must be careful not to look past the 49ers at Pittsburgh. One loss will be fatal to the Bills.
All of the division winners have been decided and the Jets look to have a spot all but locked up. So it comes down to which of the four 8-6 teams finish strongest. Jacksonville and Buffalo are playing the best right now, but we've seen enough upsets lately that anything could happen. This is what a playoff race is supposed to look like!
1. Pittsburgh -- The Steelers only need one win to clinch home field throughout the playoffs. They should get it this weekend.
2. New England -- They stumbled in Miami and it may cost them.
3. San Diego -- They won in the cold in Cleveland, if they beat Indy this week the Chargers will have shown they can go anywhere and win.
4. Indianapolis -- With a win against the Chargers, the Colts would move into the #3 spot. That may not mean much, except NOT catching the Jets in the first week of the playoffs.
Wildcards
5. New York Jets -- The Jets have had a tough schedule lately and it doesn't get any easier this week against the Pats. But they've shown they can play with anyone, and the Chargers and Colts loser will probably get stuck playing them in the first round. If there is a wildcard team capable of going all the way this year, it is the Jets.
6. Jacksonville -- Everything went their way last week and the Jags are now in the driver's seat. They play at home against the Texans this week, then finish at Oakland. The running game is working and the defense is a good one, so they are definitely the team to beat for that last spot. I don't see them giving it up.
Outside Looking In
7. Baltimore -- Their grueling schedule gets grueling-er this weeks as the Ravens go to Pittsburgh. If they pull off the upset and get some help, they could get right back into it. The defense is still good, but there are some chinks in the armor.
8. Denver -- The Broncos are going in the wrong direction, fast! The running game is letting them down, the receivers are young and dropping passes, Plummer is reverting to Arizona form, and the defense is faltering badly. This is a team in search of some answers. A win this week would help, but they would need a lot of other help to move up since they lose most tiebreakers. It doesn't look good for my Broncos!
9. Buffalo -- The Bills had many things go right for them last weekend. Now they travel to San Francisco for an apparently easy game. But they must be careful not to look past the 49ers at Pittsburgh. One loss will be fatal to the Bills.
All of the division winners have been decided and the Jets look to have a spot all but locked up. So it comes down to which of the four 8-6 teams finish strongest. Jacksonville and Buffalo are playing the best right now, but we've seen enough upsets lately that anything could happen. This is what a playoff race is supposed to look like!
NFC Playoff Picture
Division Leaders
1. Philadelphia -- Home field clinched, can they adjust to no TO?
2. Atlanta -- Clinched 1st round bye.
3. Green Bay -- Playing for division title on Friday.
4. Seattle -- As they said on a pregame show, by rule someone from the NFC West goes to the playoffs.
Wildcards
5. Minnesota -- Detroit's bad snap helped, but they played a good game. Now they could steal the division title from the Packers. If they beat the Pack on Christmas Eve, the Vikes take the division! Green Bay usually struggles at the Metrodome and Moss should be 100%. The only question is can the defense hold a lead, any lead?
6. Carolina -- It was a tough loss to Atlanta, but the Panthers are in the crappy conference, so it didn't hurt them. Now they have the Bucs and the Saints and they control their own destiny. If they get in, the Panthers will travel to the winner of the Green Bay (outdoors, in January) vs Minnesota (climate controlled dome) game. I wonder who they will be cheering for on Friday?
Outside Looking In
7. St Louis -- Yeah, right, they'll make the playoffs (dripping with sarcasm). They just lost to the Cardinals, do you really think they can knock off Philly and the Jets in consecutive weeks? Stick a fork in 'em, they're done.
8. New Orleans -- Amazing what a 2-game win streak will do! If they win this weekend it sets up a game against the Panthers for what would probably be the final playoff spot. The Saints are the only NFC team, still fighting for a playoff position, that has won its last 2 games.
9. Arizona -- I am now a Cardinals fan. At least they're playing like they want it. If they could beat the worst team in the NFL (49ers), they would be in the lead in the NFC West. If they go 2-0 against Seattle and Tampa, the Cards could sneak in. The Rams and Seahawks would both have to drop their last 2, but that's a distinct possibility with them. Go Cards!!
1. Philadelphia -- Home field clinched, can they adjust to no TO?
2. Atlanta -- Clinched 1st round bye.
3. Green Bay -- Playing for division title on Friday.
4. Seattle -- As they said on a pregame show, by rule someone from the NFC West goes to the playoffs.
Wildcards
5. Minnesota -- Detroit's bad snap helped, but they played a good game. Now they could steal the division title from the Packers. If they beat the Pack on Christmas Eve, the Vikes take the division! Green Bay usually struggles at the Metrodome and Moss should be 100%. The only question is can the defense hold a lead, any lead?
6. Carolina -- It was a tough loss to Atlanta, but the Panthers are in the crappy conference, so it didn't hurt them. Now they have the Bucs and the Saints and they control their own destiny. If they get in, the Panthers will travel to the winner of the Green Bay (outdoors, in January) vs Minnesota (climate controlled dome) game. I wonder who they will be cheering for on Friday?
Outside Looking In
7. St Louis -- Yeah, right, they'll make the playoffs (dripping with sarcasm). They just lost to the Cardinals, do you really think they can knock off Philly and the Jets in consecutive weeks? Stick a fork in 'em, they're done.
8. New Orleans -- Amazing what a 2-game win streak will do! If they win this weekend it sets up a game against the Panthers for what would probably be the final playoff spot. The Saints are the only NFC team, still fighting for a playoff position, that has won its last 2 games.
9. Arizona -- I am now a Cardinals fan. At least they're playing like they want it. If they could beat the worst team in the NFL (49ers), they would be in the lead in the NFC West. If they go 2-0 against Seattle and Tampa, the Cards could sneak in. The Rams and Seahawks would both have to drop their last 2, but that's a distinct possibility with them. Go Cards!!
Dolphins Help Steelers, Upset Patriots
The Pittsburgh Steelers are now only one win away from clinching home-field advantage thoughout the playoffs, thanks to AJ Feeley and the Dolphins defense.
The Patriots controlled most of the game, but the tradition of late game MNF scoring explosions continued and the Patriots lost a shocker.
I have mentioned before that the Dolphins are one of the best losing teams in recent history and they proved it again. Their defense is for real, they picked off Brady 4 times and put the offense in position to win it at the end.
Whoever takes over as the Dolphins head coach next year will not have too far to go to make this a winning football team again.
The Patriots controlled most of the game, but the tradition of late game MNF scoring explosions continued and the Patriots lost a shocker.
I have mentioned before that the Dolphins are one of the best losing teams in recent history and they proved it again. Their defense is for real, they picked off Brady 4 times and put the offense in position to win it at the end.
Whoever takes over as the Dolphins head coach next year will not have too far to go to make this a winning football team again.
Monday, December 20, 2004
T.O. Out For the Playoffs
A lot of Fantasy Football Owners out there are in panic mode over this. But the Eagles still have to be the favorites in the NFC. Philly still has a pretty good defense. The last two games of the season are now games to get the offense adjusted for the playoffs.
But the Falcons must be excited. If the Eagles stumble, Atlanta has home field.
But the Falcons must be excited. If the Eagles stumble, Atlanta has home field.
Who Wants It...Who Deserves It...Who Doesn't
This past weekend several teams had a chance to clinch playoff spots, solidify playoff spots, or move into playoff spots. This time of year the better teams should rise up and begin playing their best football of the year.
The teams that will go to the playoffs, and advance, are the teams that are peaking now. This past weekend gave us a glimpse of who those teams might be.
Teams That Want It
Jacksonville: The Jaguars went to a frozen Green Bay and took it to the Packers. The Packers were playing for a possible division title, but the Jags came out aggressive and took the early lead. Jacksonville suddenly looks very good for the last spot in the AFC.
San Diego: Nobody would have blamed the Chargers for going to Cleveland and laying a snowy egg. Instead, they went there, shut down the Browns, and ran their way to a division title. Marty knows how to win in the snow and cold, and now Pittsburgh and New England may have somebody else to worry about.
Buffalo: The Bills went on the road and won their 5th straight. And it wasn't close. These guys are playing great football. The competition is stiff, but the Bills have the easy schedule.
Atlanta: They held off a desperate Panthers team and clinched a 1st round bye. Watch out Philly!
Carolina: The Panthers went into hostile territory against a tough team and hung in until OT. If they do get to the playoffs, they won't go stumbling in.
New Orleans: I can't believe I just typed that! The Saints have knocked out two other wannabes in the last two weeks. They may not be dominating the competition, but they're winning. They need a little help, but they are not quitting.
Teams That Deserve It:
New York Jets: We don't hear too much about them, but they are among the best in the league. They took care of business against the Seahawks.
New England, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Indianapolis: The Super Bowl winner should emerge from this group.
Teams That Are Blowing It:
Denver: What happened?!?! The Broncos haven't played well for a month. Blaming Plummer is easy, but the Broncos quit on Sunday. At least they played well in their other losses. Now we have to question their heart.
Tampa Bay: Everything was going their way. Carolina lost, Seattle lost, St Louis lost. Then they gave up two TDs in the 4th quarter to the Saints! Losing at San Diego you can understand, but this?
Seattle: The Seahawks have had every opportunity to wrap this thing up. But can't. If it weren't for the bonehead call to have Moss throw a pass last week, the Seahawks would be handing the division title to the Cardinals next week!
St Louis: The Rams have lost it. Martz has now proven beyond doubt that prior success was Vermeil's accomplishment, not his.
Playing Well, But....
Baltimore: The Ravens still have a good defense, but the offense is letting them down. A tough schedule isn't going to help them the last two weeks.
Green Bay: The Packers let one get away against Jacksonville. Now they have to go to Minneapolis, where they don't usually play well, and play for the division title.
Minnesota: Just when you're about to count them out, the Vikings suddenly play smart offense in the final 3 minutes. Tice apparently would like to stick around a while longer. He'll get his wish if the Vikes can stuff the Packers on Christmas Eve. Still, that defense is troublesome.
The teams that will go to the playoffs, and advance, are the teams that are peaking now. This past weekend gave us a glimpse of who those teams might be.
Teams That Want It
Jacksonville: The Jaguars went to a frozen Green Bay and took it to the Packers. The Packers were playing for a possible division title, but the Jags came out aggressive and took the early lead. Jacksonville suddenly looks very good for the last spot in the AFC.
San Diego: Nobody would have blamed the Chargers for going to Cleveland and laying a snowy egg. Instead, they went there, shut down the Browns, and ran their way to a division title. Marty knows how to win in the snow and cold, and now Pittsburgh and New England may have somebody else to worry about.
Buffalo: The Bills went on the road and won their 5th straight. And it wasn't close. These guys are playing great football. The competition is stiff, but the Bills have the easy schedule.
Atlanta: They held off a desperate Panthers team and clinched a 1st round bye. Watch out Philly!
Carolina: The Panthers went into hostile territory against a tough team and hung in until OT. If they do get to the playoffs, they won't go stumbling in.
New Orleans: I can't believe I just typed that! The Saints have knocked out two other wannabes in the last two weeks. They may not be dominating the competition, but they're winning. They need a little help, but they are not quitting.
Teams That Deserve It:
New York Jets: We don't hear too much about them, but they are among the best in the league. They took care of business against the Seahawks.
New England, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Indianapolis: The Super Bowl winner should emerge from this group.
Teams That Are Blowing It:
Denver: What happened?!?! The Broncos haven't played well for a month. Blaming Plummer is easy, but the Broncos quit on Sunday. At least they played well in their other losses. Now we have to question their heart.
Tampa Bay: Everything was going their way. Carolina lost, Seattle lost, St Louis lost. Then they gave up two TDs in the 4th quarter to the Saints! Losing at San Diego you can understand, but this?
Seattle: The Seahawks have had every opportunity to wrap this thing up. But can't. If it weren't for the bonehead call to have Moss throw a pass last week, the Seahawks would be handing the division title to the Cardinals next week!
St Louis: The Rams have lost it. Martz has now proven beyond doubt that prior success was Vermeil's accomplishment, not his.
Playing Well, But....
Baltimore: The Ravens still have a good defense, but the offense is letting them down. A tough schedule isn't going to help them the last two weeks.
Green Bay: The Packers let one get away against Jacksonville. Now they have to go to Minneapolis, where they don't usually play well, and play for the division title.
Minnesota: Just when you're about to count them out, the Vikings suddenly play smart offense in the final 3 minutes. Tice apparently would like to stick around a while longer. He'll get his wish if the Vikes can stuff the Packers on Christmas Eve. Still, that defense is troublesome.
Ricky Williams on 60 Minutes
Ricky Williams has become a walking, talking, dumber-than-a-fence-post example of what happens when you smoke pot on a regular basis. On 60 minutes on Sunday, Ricky compared pot to eating "sweets"!
There was not a hint of remorse for the damage he inflicted on his teammates, coaches, Dolphins organization, or even his fans. If he ever sobers up and realizes he would like to play football again, it would be hard to imagine any team wanting to give him a chance.
So he wants to be a chocolate eating, pot-smoking, working for peanuts masseuse? Let him. And good riddance. If he doesn't win everybody's "Stupidest Man on Earth" prize for 2004, he at least makes honorable mention.
There was not a hint of remorse for the damage he inflicted on his teammates, coaches, Dolphins organization, or even his fans. If he ever sobers up and realizes he would like to play football again, it would be hard to imagine any team wanting to give him a chance.
So he wants to be a chocolate eating, pot-smoking, working for peanuts masseuse? Let him. And good riddance. If he doesn't win everybody's "Stupidest Man on Earth" prize for 2004, he at least makes honorable mention.
Sunday, December 19, 2004
Chokers of the Week
Denver, Tampa Bay, and St Louis all had a chance to put themselves in good playoff position. The Broncos folded up like an origami animal, the Rams continued to underachieve, and the Bucs let one get away.
Even if one of these teams sneaks back into the picture, what chance do they really have to make an impact in the playoffs? Only the Bucs have shown any heart, but they're 5-9 now.
For all the talk about parity, it sure seems like there are only a few teams that are true playoff caliber teams.
Even if one of these teams sneaks back into the picture, what chance do they really have to make an impact in the playoffs? Only the Bucs have shown any heart, but they're 5-9 now.
For all the talk about parity, it sure seems like there are only a few teams that are true playoff caliber teams.
Falcons Open the Door for 5-8 Teams
By beating the Carolina Panthers 34-31 in overtime on Saturday night, the Atlanta Falcons opened a door for all of the 5-8 teams remaining in the NFC. With the Rams' difficult schedule, every 5-8 team now sees an opportunity.
The Giants are now out of the playoff picture, even though they played well against the Steelers. So the crowded NFC playoff picture has been thinned a bit.
Dallas, Detroit, Chicago, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans are now facing 'lose and your out' games the rest of the season. Minnesota, St Louis, and Carolina are still in good shape, but the Vikes and Rams have not been playing well.
It should be a very interesting Sunday!
The Giants are now out of the playoff picture, even though they played well against the Steelers. So the crowded NFC playoff picture has been thinned a bit.
Dallas, Detroit, Chicago, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans are now facing 'lose and your out' games the rest of the season. Minnesota, St Louis, and Carolina are still in good shape, but the Vikes and Rams have not been playing well.
It should be a very interesting Sunday!
Friday, December 17, 2004
Week 15 Preview
There are 7 games this week that could decide some playoff positions, or make the situation even murkier. We should at least learn a little about the heart of some of the teams in the playoff races.
Carolina at Atlanta
This will be a fun one to watch! I think the Panthers might just pull this one out.
Buffalo at Cincinnati
Both teams are hanging by a thread in the playoff hunt. The Bengals more than the Bills. A loss will put an end to Cincy's hopes, and even a win might not help much. The Bills have a little more hope, but every game for them is huge.
Buffalo's defense has been the difference in their recent streak, and it should be the difference here. I like the Bills to keep rolling.
Denver at Kansas City
The Chiefs are playing out the string. They are starting Larry Johnson in the hopes of raising his trade value. Gonzalez always seems to play big against Denver, and they may need that.
Denver needs this game to keep pace or surpass the Ravens for the final AFC Playoff spot. The Broncos' receivers must do better catching the ball and Droughns must hold onto it, too. If Denver's defense can hold its own against the Chiefs, the Broncos will win. If they lose, well, I'd rather not think about that. (Yes, I'm a Bronco fan. I bleed predominantly orange.)
Minnesota at Detroit
There is more than a potential playoff spot on the line in this one. The future of an entire coaching staff may be riding on this one, too. And it's the staff of the team with the better record, the Vikings.
Minnesota's late-season meltdown is becoming an annual event. They are currently in the 5th spot in the NFC conference standings, but somehow seem to be in a weaker position than the teams behind them. That could change with a victory over the Lions. It could wake this team up, nearly clinch a playoff spot, and raise their confidence level. The Vikings will need Moss to have a big day and a sustained running game would definitely help.
The Lions are still hoping to sneak into the playoffs, but a loss will put an end to that. Harrington should get well, or at least better, against the Vikings' defense, but they should also have a big day running.
Culpepper and Moss should have a big day and I think the Vikes will pull this out.
Seattle at New York Jets
Seattle had one handed to them at Minneapolis last week. The Jets won't do them that same favor. New York is a good team that hung with the Steelers in Pittsburgh for over 3 quarters. Seattle doesn't have the heart to win this one.
The Jets will solidify their playoff position and send Seattle home at 7-7.
Jacksonville at Green Bay
It's supposed to be COLD this weekend!! That can't be good for the Jags. The Packers have a good running game and proved last week they can throw even when the temperature drops. The Jaguars will be able to run, but their passing game will suffer.
The Pack will clinch a playoff spot and, perhaps, deal a death-blow to Jacksonville's hopes.
Baltimore at Indianapolis
The Colts have clinched their division and might be in cruise control. They know they won't catch the Pats or Steelers, so they are playing for the #3 spot in the AFC. That's not much motivation.
The Ravens need a win to keep their grip on the final AFC playoff spot. Usually you would think Baltimore would have a chance to shut the Colts down, but their defense has surrendered some serious points in the past month. A win should clinch the tiebreaker with Denver, so it would be like picking up a game on them.
This is going to be one of the better games to watch this weekend. I think it comes down to Boller not being able to score the points necessary to win. But if Baltimore gets the running game going and controls the clock, they could pull it out.
Carolina at Atlanta
This game is huge to a lot of teams. If Atlanta wins they secure their #2 seeding in the playoffs. It's the kind of game the Falcons need to win to show they are playoff ready. You know, start building the confidence they will need if they must travel to Philly in January? A lot of NFC teams will be pulling for the Falcons to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The Panthers need this game! A loss puts them in a very bad tiebreaker situation going to Tampa the following week for what could be an elimination game for the loser. Carolina will need to control the ball and not let Vick get rolling. Their history against the Falcons is not good, either.
This will be a fun one to watch! I think the Panthers might just pull this one out.
Buffalo at Cincinnati
Both teams are hanging by a thread in the playoff hunt. The Bengals more than the Bills. A loss will put an end to Cincy's hopes, and even a win might not help much. The Bills have a little more hope, but every game for them is huge.
Buffalo's defense has been the difference in their recent streak, and it should be the difference here. I like the Bills to keep rolling.
Denver at Kansas City
The Chiefs are playing out the string. They are starting Larry Johnson in the hopes of raising his trade value. Gonzalez always seems to play big against Denver, and they may need that.
Denver needs this game to keep pace or surpass the Ravens for the final AFC Playoff spot. The Broncos' receivers must do better catching the ball and Droughns must hold onto it, too. If Denver's defense can hold its own against the Chiefs, the Broncos will win. If they lose, well, I'd rather not think about that. (Yes, I'm a Bronco fan. I bleed predominantly orange.)
Minnesota at Detroit
There is more than a potential playoff spot on the line in this one. The future of an entire coaching staff may be riding on this one, too. And it's the staff of the team with the better record, the Vikings.
Minnesota's late-season meltdown is becoming an annual event. They are currently in the 5th spot in the NFC conference standings, but somehow seem to be in a weaker position than the teams behind them. That could change with a victory over the Lions. It could wake this team up, nearly clinch a playoff spot, and raise their confidence level. The Vikings will need Moss to have a big day and a sustained running game would definitely help.
The Lions are still hoping to sneak into the playoffs, but a loss will put an end to that. Harrington should get well, or at least better, against the Vikings' defense, but they should also have a big day running.
Culpepper and Moss should have a big day and I think the Vikes will pull this out.
Seattle at New York Jets
Seattle had one handed to them at Minneapolis last week. The Jets won't do them that same favor. New York is a good team that hung with the Steelers in Pittsburgh for over 3 quarters. Seattle doesn't have the heart to win this one.
The Jets will solidify their playoff position and send Seattle home at 7-7.
Jacksonville at Green Bay
It's supposed to be COLD this weekend!! That can't be good for the Jags. The Packers have a good running game and proved last week they can throw even when the temperature drops. The Jaguars will be able to run, but their passing game will suffer.
The Pack will clinch a playoff spot and, perhaps, deal a death-blow to Jacksonville's hopes.
Baltimore at Indianapolis
The Colts have clinched their division and might be in cruise control. They know they won't catch the Pats or Steelers, so they are playing for the #3 spot in the AFC. That's not much motivation.
The Ravens need a win to keep their grip on the final AFC playoff spot. Usually you would think Baltimore would have a chance to shut the Colts down, but their defense has surrendered some serious points in the past month. A win should clinch the tiebreaker with Denver, so it would be like picking up a game on them.
This is going to be one of the better games to watch this weekend. I think it comes down to Boller not being able to score the points necessary to win. But if Baltimore gets the running game going and controls the clock, they could pull it out.
Fantasy Football Playoffs: Unknowns Could Decide Championships
Every Fantasy owner has spent a great deal of time the past6 months trying to field a championship team. All of the prep, all of the analysis, all the hard work have earned many a spot in the playoffs. And now there are some players out there that nobody considered valuable, who could be the deciding factor in many Fantasy Football championship runs.
All season we have had certain players that we relied on. Old stalwarts that could be counted on to get the yardage and score the TDs and help us rack up the W's. And while it is hard to bench some of those old reliables, some of us must consider it.
Here are the players I believe warrant that kind of consideration in the next 3 weeks. These guys have come out of nowhere and are now on such hot streaks that it is hard not to play them, even if it means benching one of the old reliables.
Carson Palmer, QB, CIN: If he's healthy, he's a good choice to finish the season with if your starter is hobbled or playing poorly. He's been racking up good stats against good defenses.
Nick Goings, RB, CAR: This guy could put a lot of owners over the top. Even against a good Atlanta team this week, he should be a starter on most teams.
Julius Jones, RB, DAL: Parcells knows how to use backs like him. The Cowboys may be out of the playoff picture, but don't expect Jones to let up. It's a tough matchup against the Eagle this week, but he should running wild the last 2 weeks.
Kevin Jones, RB, DET: The Lions have a very remote chance at the playoffs, and it's because of Kevin Jones. Mooch will use Jones to control the ball and help out their fading pass offense. He could rack up big numbers against the Vikes.
Larry Johnson, RB, KC: The Chiefs have named him their starter and they are believed to be showcasing him for an off-season trade. And he knows what the payoff will be.
Maurice Hicks, RB, SF: The 49ers may not be a team that you can trust to keep a back productive, but Hicks could fill some holes on a few teams.
Joe Horn, WR, NO: He had a terrible year up until 5 weeks ago. He's been on a tear ever since and should be starting in every league.
Drew Bennett, WR, TEN: Volek likes this guy and seems to always look for him first. Check the matchups, but he should be starting in most leagues.
Donald Driver, WR, GB: Javon Walker is getting all of the attention from defenses and Driver is benefiting. His last 4 weeks have been outstanding.
Eddie Kennison: Trent Green has suddenly discovered Kennison. What was going on before? Eddie has had huge games in 4 of the last 5 weeks.
TJ Houshmandzadeh, WR, CIN: He has been huge for the Bengals in the last 3 games and should continue.
All season we have had certain players that we relied on. Old stalwarts that could be counted on to get the yardage and score the TDs and help us rack up the W's. And while it is hard to bench some of those old reliables, some of us must consider it.
Here are the players I believe warrant that kind of consideration in the next 3 weeks. These guys have come out of nowhere and are now on such hot streaks that it is hard not to play them, even if it means benching one of the old reliables.
Carson Palmer, QB, CIN: If he's healthy, he's a good choice to finish the season with if your starter is hobbled or playing poorly. He's been racking up good stats against good defenses.
Nick Goings, RB, CAR: This guy could put a lot of owners over the top. Even against a good Atlanta team this week, he should be a starter on most teams.
Julius Jones, RB, DAL: Parcells knows how to use backs like him. The Cowboys may be out of the playoff picture, but don't expect Jones to let up. It's a tough matchup against the Eagle this week, but he should running wild the last 2 weeks.
Kevin Jones, RB, DET: The Lions have a very remote chance at the playoffs, and it's because of Kevin Jones. Mooch will use Jones to control the ball and help out their fading pass offense. He could rack up big numbers against the Vikes.
Larry Johnson, RB, KC: The Chiefs have named him their starter and they are believed to be showcasing him for an off-season trade. And he knows what the payoff will be.
Maurice Hicks, RB, SF: The 49ers may not be a team that you can trust to keep a back productive, but Hicks could fill some holes on a few teams.
Joe Horn, WR, NO: He had a terrible year up until 5 weeks ago. He's been on a tear ever since and should be starting in every league.
Drew Bennett, WR, TEN: Volek likes this guy and seems to always look for him first. Check the matchups, but he should be starting in most leagues.
Donald Driver, WR, GB: Javon Walker is getting all of the attention from defenses and Driver is benefiting. His last 4 weeks have been outstanding.
Eddie Kennison: Trent Green has suddenly discovered Kennison. What was going on before? Eddie has had huge games in 4 of the last 5 weeks.
TJ Houshmandzadeh, WR, CIN: He has been huge for the Bengals in the last 3 games and should continue.
NFL Playoff Prospects: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars, like the Bills, are one game behind Baltimore and Denver. The advantage the Jags have, however, is that they beat Denver and Buffalo early in the season, giving them the tiebreaker over both of those teams.
Jacksonville has a tough game this week on the frozen tundra of Green Bay, but after that they get Houston at home and travel to Oakland. If Denver, Baltimore, or the Jets stumble, the Jags are in good position to move up.
The best scenario for Jacksonville is for Denver and Baltimore to both lose on the road against good opponents this week, have the Bengals beat Buffalo, and then pull off the upset over the Packers. If that happens, there will be a 3-way tie for the final playoff spot (Denver, Baltimore, Jax) and the Jags will have the most favorable schedule of the the 3. Jacksonville would also then be tied in conference records with the Ravens and Broncos at 5-5.
The Jaguars would then have to win their final two games, probably, and hope that the Ravens lose to Pittsburgh and/or Miami in the final 2 weeks. That would leave the Jags, at worst, tied with the Broncos for the final spot. And the Jags would be in by virtue of their victory over Denver.
If Jacksonville loses to the Packers, however, they will be forced to win out and would also need a lot of help from others. And no team wants to stumble into the playoffs that way, it's better to win.
Jacksonville has a tough game this week on the frozen tundra of Green Bay, but after that they get Houston at home and travel to Oakland. If Denver, Baltimore, or the Jets stumble, the Jags are in good position to move up.
The best scenario for Jacksonville is for Denver and Baltimore to both lose on the road against good opponents this week, have the Bengals beat Buffalo, and then pull off the upset over the Packers. If that happens, there will be a 3-way tie for the final playoff spot (Denver, Baltimore, Jax) and the Jags will have the most favorable schedule of the the 3. Jacksonville would also then be tied in conference records with the Ravens and Broncos at 5-5.
The Jaguars would then have to win their final two games, probably, and hope that the Ravens lose to Pittsburgh and/or Miami in the final 2 weeks. That would leave the Jags, at worst, tied with the Broncos for the final spot. And the Jags would be in by virtue of their victory over Denver.
If Jacksonville loses to the Packers, however, they will be forced to win out and would also need a lot of help from others. And no team wants to stumble into the playoffs that way, it's better to win.
NFL Playoff Prospects: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Consider this; the Vikings, Panthers, and Seahawks all play on the road this week against good competition. The Rams also play on the road this week. It is possible that the Bucs could beat the Saints to go 6-8, and find themselves tied for the final playoff spot in the NFC and only a game behind the 5th seed in the playoff race. And only the Panthers are playing decent football right now.
If that were to occur, and looking at the Rams' and Vikings' schedules for the final two games, the Bucs could almost clinch a playoff spot the next week by beating the Panthers at home and getting a little help from other teams. In the weak NFC, this is not only possible, it is becoming likely.
The Bucs just need to keep winning. They had a setback against the Chargers last week, but they are playing very well lately. If they can get back on track and win the next two games, they will be in good position come Week 17.
Yes, they will need some help. But the Vikings are fading, the Seahawks are inconsistent, the Rams are dying a slow death, and the Panthers have a very tough schedule to finish the season. The game against the Panthers may very well be the deciding game in Tampa Bay's season.
If that were to occur, and looking at the Rams' and Vikings' schedules for the final two games, the Bucs could almost clinch a playoff spot the next week by beating the Panthers at home and getting a little help from other teams. In the weak NFC, this is not only possible, it is becoming likely.
The Bucs just need to keep winning. They had a setback against the Chargers last week, but they are playing very well lately. If they can get back on track and win the next two games, they will be in good position come Week 17.
Yes, they will need some help. But the Vikings are fading, the Seahawks are inconsistent, the Rams are dying a slow death, and the Panthers have a very tough schedule to finish the season. The game against the Panthers may very well be the deciding game in Tampa Bay's season.
Thursday, December 16, 2004
NFL Playoff Prospects: Detroit Lions
Yes, the Detroit Lions. That's how bad the NFC is...the 5-8 Lions have a shot at the playoffs. Actually, the Lions are one of two NFC 5-8 teams that I think could have a shot. Tampa Bay is the other. The Giants, Bears, Cowboys, and Saints are also 5-8, but one look at their schedules and how they have played the last few weeks and you know they are dead teams playing.
The Lions, however, have a few things going for them. They are only one game out of playoff position, they have two home games against teams they can beat, their 3rd game is at a weak Tennessee, and they have been playing well despite the losses. In fact, if they beat the Vikings and Carolina loses to Atlanta, the Lions could find themselves tied with Carolina, and trailing the Rams and Vikes by only a game, with the Vikings fading fast and the Rams facing 2 very difficult games in the final weeks.
Detroit's passing game has gone stale recently, but Kevin Jones might just be the answer to this team's problems. This year, not next. If they can keep him going, then winning their last 3 is very possible.
There are many scenarios in which the Lions could move into playoff position, but it all starts with a victory this week over the Vikings. If they win that one, they are actually in pretty good shape. If they lose and Carolina wins, it's time to start talking about next year.
The Lions, however, have a few things going for them. They are only one game out of playoff position, they have two home games against teams they can beat, their 3rd game is at a weak Tennessee, and they have been playing well despite the losses. In fact, if they beat the Vikings and Carolina loses to Atlanta, the Lions could find themselves tied with Carolina, and trailing the Rams and Vikes by only a game, with the Vikings fading fast and the Rams facing 2 very difficult games in the final weeks.
Detroit's passing game has gone stale recently, but Kevin Jones might just be the answer to this team's problems. This year, not next. If they can keep him going, then winning their last 3 is very possible.
There are many scenarios in which the Lions could move into playoff position, but it all starts with a victory this week over the Vikings. If they win that one, they are actually in pretty good shape. If they lose and Carolina wins, it's time to start talking about next year.
NFL Playoff Prospects: Buffalo Bills
This will be the first in a series of posts regarding potential playoff teams. I will be looking this week at playoff possibilities for teams that are close to playoff elimination, but still have an outside shot at the playoffs.
In the AFC, the Bills are the lowest ranked team with any realistic hope of a playoff berth. They also have the worst conference record of the potential wildcard teams. And Buffalo has also lost to Baltimore and Jacksonville. So their tiebreaker status with the other teams is in very bad shape.
However, their are some possibilities. The good news is that the Bills have two winnable road games before facing Pittsburgh in the final week. They will need a lot of help, though, as they trail Baltimore and Denver by 2 games Jacksonville by one.
Here is what Buffalo fans are cheering for in the final 3 weeks: The Bills must win their next 2 games. Baltimore and Denver must lose 2 of their last 3 games, which is not out of the question when you look at their remaining schedules. And finally, Jacksonville must lose at least one of their remaining games. If the Bills lose any of their remaining games, that would mean Denver, Baltimore, and Jacksonville would have to go 1-8 in their games, which just isn't going to happen.
If all of the above happens, Buffalo comes home to face the Steelers for a playoff spot. And here is the rest of the best scenario for the Bills. If the Patriots lose one of their next two games and the Steelers win both of their next 2 games, Pittsburgh comes to Buffalo with home-field advantage all wrapped up. That means Roethlisberger, Bettis, and Staley take it easy, and the Bills chances of winning are greatly increased.
This is a very unlikely scenario, but, unfortunately, it is what Bills fans are facing in the next 3 weeks.
In the AFC, the Bills are the lowest ranked team with any realistic hope of a playoff berth. They also have the worst conference record of the potential wildcard teams. And Buffalo has also lost to Baltimore and Jacksonville. So their tiebreaker status with the other teams is in very bad shape.
However, their are some possibilities. The good news is that the Bills have two winnable road games before facing Pittsburgh in the final week. They will need a lot of help, though, as they trail Baltimore and Denver by 2 games Jacksonville by one.
Here is what Buffalo fans are cheering for in the final 3 weeks: The Bills must win their next 2 games. Baltimore and Denver must lose 2 of their last 3 games, which is not out of the question when you look at their remaining schedules. And finally, Jacksonville must lose at least one of their remaining games. If the Bills lose any of their remaining games, that would mean Denver, Baltimore, and Jacksonville would have to go 1-8 in their games, which just isn't going to happen.
If all of the above happens, Buffalo comes home to face the Steelers for a playoff spot. And here is the rest of the best scenario for the Bills. If the Patriots lose one of their next two games and the Steelers win both of their next 2 games, Pittsburgh comes to Buffalo with home-field advantage all wrapped up. That means Roethlisberger, Bettis, and Staley take it easy, and the Bills chances of winning are greatly increased.
This is a very unlikely scenario, but, unfortunately, it is what Bills fans are facing in the next 3 weeks.
Wednesday, December 15, 2004
What's Really Wrong With the BCS
The title is not a question. There are many reasons to dislike the BCS system, and some reasonable arguments in favor. By scouring the internet and various sports magazines you will find numerous experts proclaiming that the BCS system is the best possible way to produce a real national champion in NCAA football..."Outside of a playoff system". They always throw that in at the end.
Whenever you run across someone saying that the NCAA won't go to a playoff system and that the BCS system is just fine and dandy, just listen real close to how they make the argument. They don't say that the BCS system is better than a playoff system, they tell you how hard it would be to come up with a playoff system that would work. Their argument always comes down to "It would be too hard, so let's just stick with the BCS." In case you doubt me, just go to the BCS Website and look at some of the articles in the Media Coverage section.
Here is a perfect example of what I mean. Just the title of this piece makes my point. "Want a playoff? Then tell me how it works! It could be great for college football, but it doesn't translate." It would be too hard, so just forget it!
It's a good thing these guys weren't around when the founding fathers were trying to form a more perfect republic. "It's too haaaaarrrddd! And what's wrong with having a king, anyway?" "Do they really expect us to vote every two years?!?!" "Soldiers kicking in the doors occasionally isn't so bad!"
Making excuses is easy, making things right requires effort!! And having teams like Auburn and Cal getting flamed by a few voters who haven't even watched them play is just plain wrong. If the NCAA wants a champion crowned they should do the right thing and start a playoff, no matter how hard it is.
Now, here are the reasons the current BCS system is bad for football.
1. True football championships are won on the field!!! Frozen, muddy, wind-swept, snow-covered fields!! Save your votes for figure skaters, gymnastics, and diving.
2. The BCS incorporates strength of conference in its computer rankings. Strength of conference?!? Please. That is like arguing that the Pittsburgh Steelers aren't really that good because they play in a weak division. Ridiculous. Is Auburn's talent really diminished by a weaker conference? BTW, Auburn is the only team in the top 10 to go 2-0 against other top 10 teams. How does their weaker conference affect that?
3. It used to be big-time taboo to run up the score on other teams. USC recently ran a fake punt late in the game against Notre Dame when they had the big lead. Nobody even blinked!! And Notre Dame fired their coach the following week. Do you think being embarrassed by their arch-rivals that way on national TV had a little something to do with that? If there is any justice, USC will lose by 4 TDs to Oklahoma, who also had a chance to run up a few scores and declined to do so. Look here for more on that.
4. It used to be that football coaches wanted their teams to get better as the season wore on. How many times have we heard how important it is to be playing your best ball at the end of the year? That is no longer the case. It is now apparent that a team can't lose a single game and hope to have a chance to win the BCS. A team that wants to win it all can't even afford to lose a close game against a highly rated rival on their rival's field on a last second 60-yard field goal. If they do, they are out.
5. Tradition. One of the great things about college football is the tradition. In no other sport do you find rival teams playing for the honor of hoisting brown jugs, giant axes, bronze pigs, or some other unique piece of hardware. And while traditions like those will never be affected by the BCS, other traditions are affected. The most glaring example is the Rose Bowl. Traditionally, it pitted the PAC-10 and Big 10 champs and, over the years, provided some of the most entertaining games in college football history. The Rose Bowl was dragged into the BCS partly on the promise that it would continue to get PAC-10 and Big 10 teams in the years it did not host the BCS Championship game. That has not happened, and this year it became even more of an issue when Cal was passed over by a trivial margin and not allowed to play in the big game it wanted. The BCS has become so rigid that it will not even allow this grand tradition to continue, even though it may anger the very people who could withdraw from the BCS if angered further.
These are the five areas in which I believe the current BCS has failed miserably. I have not even touched on some of the more egregious shortcomings of the BCS, such as the computer rankings.
In future posts I will take a closer look at the BCS computer rankings, polls and their voters, and other issues. The goal here is not to eliminate the BCS. Some positive progress has been made by the BCS and I would, grudgingly, admit that the current system probably comes closer to choosing a real nation champion than the old system. The goal here is to come up with a system that works and that decides its champion on the field, not the ballot box or the CPU.
Next week I will look deeper into the BCS rankings. What are they, where do they come from, and what do they really mean? I would also welcome any comments, suggestions (please keep it clean), and especially any links to more information concerning the internal workings of the BCS and who the individual people are in the BCS. I am not looking to criticize any individuals, but to have a complete picture of the BCS and its value to the sport of football, we need to know who is running it.
And to those who say "Tell me how you would fix it!", in January I will post my two options for a playoff system and describe how they would deal with problems critics say are the impediment to a playoff system. I will then plug in the teams that I believe might have played each other, and give my opinion as to how it might have progressed. And I will crown a champion, too. If the BCS can do it their way, I can do it mine.
Whenever you run across someone saying that the NCAA won't go to a playoff system and that the BCS system is just fine and dandy, just listen real close to how they make the argument. They don't say that the BCS system is better than a playoff system, they tell you how hard it would be to come up with a playoff system that would work. Their argument always comes down to "It would be too hard, so let's just stick with the BCS." In case you doubt me, just go to the BCS Website and look at some of the articles in the Media Coverage section.
Here is a perfect example of what I mean. Just the title of this piece makes my point. "Want a playoff? Then tell me how it works! It could be great for college football, but it doesn't translate." It would be too hard, so just forget it!
It's a good thing these guys weren't around when the founding fathers were trying to form a more perfect republic. "It's too haaaaarrrddd! And what's wrong with having a king, anyway?" "Do they really expect us to vote every two years?!?!" "Soldiers kicking in the doors occasionally isn't so bad!"
Making excuses is easy, making things right requires effort!! And having teams like Auburn and Cal getting flamed by a few voters who haven't even watched them play is just plain wrong. If the NCAA wants a champion crowned they should do the right thing and start a playoff, no matter how hard it is.
Now, here are the reasons the current BCS system is bad for football.
1. True football championships are won on the field!!! Frozen, muddy, wind-swept, snow-covered fields!! Save your votes for figure skaters, gymnastics, and diving.
2. The BCS incorporates strength of conference in its computer rankings. Strength of conference?!? Please. That is like arguing that the Pittsburgh Steelers aren't really that good because they play in a weak division. Ridiculous. Is Auburn's talent really diminished by a weaker conference? BTW, Auburn is the only team in the top 10 to go 2-0 against other top 10 teams. How does their weaker conference affect that?
3. It used to be big-time taboo to run up the score on other teams. USC recently ran a fake punt late in the game against Notre Dame when they had the big lead. Nobody even blinked!! And Notre Dame fired their coach the following week. Do you think being embarrassed by their arch-rivals that way on national TV had a little something to do with that? If there is any justice, USC will lose by 4 TDs to Oklahoma, who also had a chance to run up a few scores and declined to do so. Look here for more on that.
4. It used to be that football coaches wanted their teams to get better as the season wore on. How many times have we heard how important it is to be playing your best ball at the end of the year? That is no longer the case. It is now apparent that a team can't lose a single game and hope to have a chance to win the BCS. A team that wants to win it all can't even afford to lose a close game against a highly rated rival on their rival's field on a last second 60-yard field goal. If they do, they are out.
5. Tradition. One of the great things about college football is the tradition. In no other sport do you find rival teams playing for the honor of hoisting brown jugs, giant axes, bronze pigs, or some other unique piece of hardware. And while traditions like those will never be affected by the BCS, other traditions are affected. The most glaring example is the Rose Bowl. Traditionally, it pitted the PAC-10 and Big 10 champs and, over the years, provided some of the most entertaining games in college football history. The Rose Bowl was dragged into the BCS partly on the promise that it would continue to get PAC-10 and Big 10 teams in the years it did not host the BCS Championship game. That has not happened, and this year it became even more of an issue when Cal was passed over by a trivial margin and not allowed to play in the big game it wanted. The BCS has become so rigid that it will not even allow this grand tradition to continue, even though it may anger the very people who could withdraw from the BCS if angered further.
These are the five areas in which I believe the current BCS has failed miserably. I have not even touched on some of the more egregious shortcomings of the BCS, such as the computer rankings.
In future posts I will take a closer look at the BCS computer rankings, polls and their voters, and other issues. The goal here is not to eliminate the BCS. Some positive progress has been made by the BCS and I would, grudgingly, admit that the current system probably comes closer to choosing a real nation champion than the old system. The goal here is to come up with a system that works and that decides its champion on the field, not the ballot box or the CPU.
Next week I will look deeper into the BCS rankings. What are they, where do they come from, and what do they really mean? I would also welcome any comments, suggestions (please keep it clean), and especially any links to more information concerning the internal workings of the BCS and who the individual people are in the BCS. I am not looking to criticize any individuals, but to have a complete picture of the BCS and its value to the sport of football, we need to know who is running it.
And to those who say "Tell me how you would fix it!", in January I will post my two options for a playoff system and describe how they would deal with problems critics say are the impediment to a playoff system. I will then plug in the teams that I believe might have played each other, and give my opinion as to how it might have progressed. And I will crown a champion, too. If the BCS can do it their way, I can do it mine.
AFC Playoff Picture
Division Leaders
1. Pittsburgh -- Steelers will be #1 or #2 seed. They have a much tougher schedule than the Pats, but this team has what it takes to finish strong.
2. New England -- The Patriots have an easy schedule down the stretch and will be #1 or #2 seed. Home field could mean back-to-back Super Bowls.
3. San Diego -- Should win division.
4. Indianapolis -- Tough schedule down the stretch will probably leave them in the #4 spot.
Wildcards
5. NY Jets -- Playoffs are almost a sure thing. This could be the team to pull off an upset in the first round.
6. Baltimore -- Next 2 games are at Indy and Pittsburgh, then home against a tough Miami defense. If they qualify for the playoffs with this schedule, they will have EARNED it!
Outside Looking In
7. Denver -- That Champ Bailey Monday night meltdown in the snow has really cost this team. They must also hit the road for their next 2 at KC and Tennessee, then home against a very tough Colts team. Schedule advantage is slightly in Denver's favor, but they will have to play very good football to pass the Ravens. Again, if they do make the playoffs, they will have EARNED it!
8. Jacksonville -- The Jags have a more favorable schedule than the Ravens and Broncos, so they could move up if one of them stumbles. Unfortunately for them, they need both teams to fade. Jacksonville also is tied with the hard-charging Bills. They need too many things to go their way the next 3 weeks.
9. Buffalo -- With Pittsburgh looming in the final week, the Bills must win at Cincy and San Francisco to have any realistic chance at the playoffs. They probably started their playoff run one week too late.
10. Cincinnati -- This is a definite long-shot, but if they continue to play well offensively and eliminate the costly mistakes, they could win out and make some noise for a playoff spot. They have their next 2 at home, then travel to Philadelphia to play a team taking it easy after clinching everything. With the tough schedules of Denver and Baltimore, they are not completely out of it. But it would take a miracle.
Realistically, the AFC comes down to Denver and Baltimore. One of these teams will be in the playoffs and the other will be watching some pathetic 8-8 NFC team on TV. If Denver can steal a win at KC, it could really put the pressure on the Ravens.
1. Pittsburgh -- Steelers will be #1 or #2 seed. They have a much tougher schedule than the Pats, but this team has what it takes to finish strong.
2. New England -- The Patriots have an easy schedule down the stretch and will be #1 or #2 seed. Home field could mean back-to-back Super Bowls.
3. San Diego -- Should win division.
4. Indianapolis -- Tough schedule down the stretch will probably leave them in the #4 spot.
Wildcards
5. NY Jets -- Playoffs are almost a sure thing. This could be the team to pull off an upset in the first round.
6. Baltimore -- Next 2 games are at Indy and Pittsburgh, then home against a tough Miami defense. If they qualify for the playoffs with this schedule, they will have EARNED it!
Outside Looking In
7. Denver -- That Champ Bailey Monday night meltdown in the snow has really cost this team. They must also hit the road for their next 2 at KC and Tennessee, then home against a very tough Colts team. Schedule advantage is slightly in Denver's favor, but they will have to play very good football to pass the Ravens. Again, if they do make the playoffs, they will have EARNED it!
8. Jacksonville -- The Jags have a more favorable schedule than the Ravens and Broncos, so they could move up if one of them stumbles. Unfortunately for them, they need both teams to fade. Jacksonville also is tied with the hard-charging Bills. They need too many things to go their way the next 3 weeks.
9. Buffalo -- With Pittsburgh looming in the final week, the Bills must win at Cincy and San Francisco to have any realistic chance at the playoffs. They probably started their playoff run one week too late.
10. Cincinnati -- This is a definite long-shot, but if they continue to play well offensively and eliminate the costly mistakes, they could win out and make some noise for a playoff spot. They have their next 2 at home, then travel to Philadelphia to play a team taking it easy after clinching everything. With the tough schedules of Denver and Baltimore, they are not completely out of it. But it would take a miracle.
Realistically, the AFC comes down to Denver and Baltimore. One of these teams will be in the playoffs and the other will be watching some pathetic 8-8 NFC team on TV. If Denver can steal a win at KC, it could really put the pressure on the Ravens.
NFC Playoff Picture
Division Leaders
1. Philadelphia -- Will have home field advantage.
2. Atlanta -- Should be #2 seed in NFC.
3. Green Bay -- The Packers control their own destiny and the Vikes are fading, again.
4. Seattle -- Seahawks are in the driver's seat again. But they are not as good as any AFC playoff team.
Wildcards
5. Minnesota -- Game against Detroit could determine Vikings' playoff destiny and Tice's coaching future. The Vikings do not fare well in too many tiebreakers, so they need to win 2 of their last 3 to lock this spot up.
6. Carolina -- The Panthers have made it all the way back. But now have a tough one against Atlanta. Considering the competition in the NFC, the Panthers could afford a loss if they win their last 2. But an upset here and a Vikings loss could move them and really solidify their position. This is a BIG game for the Panthers!
Outside Looking In
7. St Louis (6-7) -- If Carolina or Minnesota stumble, the Rams could benefit and move up. But this team does not look like a team ready to move up. Injuries and inconsistency have hurt them all year and will continue. And with their last 2 games against the Eagles and Jets, the Rams are looking at a year without playoffs.
8. Tampa Bay (5-8) -- Tampa Bay has a favorable schedule and should easily pass the Rams. They also have a game with Carolina, which would throw the tiebreaker advantage to the Bucs against them. Tampa needs to win out, which is possible, and get a little help from others beating Minnesota and/or Carolina. But they are in pretty good position, considering their record.
9. Giants, Dallas, Detroit, Chicago, and New Orleans (5-8) -- Yes, they have the same record as Tampa Bay, but only the Bucs have shown any inclination to make a move upwards. The Giants tossed out their chances when they switched to Eli and are now playing for the future. Dallas blew it against New Orleans. The only team that has a chance of climbing the mountain here is Detroit. They have a chance with their schedule to win the last 3, but they would also need a lot of help.
Bottom Line in the NFC is this. Based on the last month, Carolina and Tampa Bay deserve the wildcard spots more than any other teams, and that includes division leaders Green Bay and Seattle. Nobody else seems to want it enough to take it. Maybe Detroit, they are playing well in their losses. But Minnesota, Seattle, and St Louis are all playing badly. Those 3 are vulnerable.
The final spots could be decided by the Bucs/Panthers game in 2 weeks.
1. Philadelphia -- Will have home field advantage.
2. Atlanta -- Should be #2 seed in NFC.
3. Green Bay -- The Packers control their own destiny and the Vikes are fading, again.
4. Seattle -- Seahawks are in the driver's seat again. But they are not as good as any AFC playoff team.
Wildcards
5. Minnesota -- Game against Detroit could determine Vikings' playoff destiny and Tice's coaching future. The Vikings do not fare well in too many tiebreakers, so they need to win 2 of their last 3 to lock this spot up.
6. Carolina -- The Panthers have made it all the way back. But now have a tough one against Atlanta. Considering the competition in the NFC, the Panthers could afford a loss if they win their last 2. But an upset here and a Vikings loss could move them and really solidify their position. This is a BIG game for the Panthers!
Outside Looking In
7. St Louis (6-7) -- If Carolina or Minnesota stumble, the Rams could benefit and move up. But this team does not look like a team ready to move up. Injuries and inconsistency have hurt them all year and will continue. And with their last 2 games against the Eagles and Jets, the Rams are looking at a year without playoffs.
8. Tampa Bay (5-8) -- Tampa Bay has a favorable schedule and should easily pass the Rams. They also have a game with Carolina, which would throw the tiebreaker advantage to the Bucs against them. Tampa needs to win out, which is possible, and get a little help from others beating Minnesota and/or Carolina. But they are in pretty good position, considering their record.
9. Giants, Dallas, Detroit, Chicago, and New Orleans (5-8) -- Yes, they have the same record as Tampa Bay, but only the Bucs have shown any inclination to make a move upwards. The Giants tossed out their chances when they switched to Eli and are now playing for the future. Dallas blew it against New Orleans. The only team that has a chance of climbing the mountain here is Detroit. They have a chance with their schedule to win the last 3, but they would also need a lot of help.
Bottom Line in the NFC is this. Based on the last month, Carolina and Tampa Bay deserve the wildcard spots more than any other teams, and that includes division leaders Green Bay and Seattle. Nobody else seems to want it enough to take it. Maybe Detroit, they are playing well in their losses. But Minnesota, Seattle, and St Louis are all playing badly. Those 3 are vulnerable.
The final spots could be decided by the Bucs/Panthers game in 2 weeks.
Tuesday, December 14, 2004
One Way to Help Our Troops
I won't do this very often, but at this time of year I think it is very important to help all those who need it. This year the ArDubby family is concentrating on helping those who risk, and sometimes give, their lives in the name of Freedom. Here is an excerpt from the Hugh Hewitt blog:
Finally, from a naval officer I respect a great deal, an e-mail on how to aid wounded troops in the two weeks left before Christmas:
"Yellow ribbons tied around trees and red, white and blue
stickers on the backs SUVs saying "Support our Troops"
are things that make civilians feel good but do nothing
for the men and women actually in uniform."
So please consider the following:
The number ONE request at Walter Reed hospital is phone cards. The government doesn't pay long distance phone charges and these wounded soldiers are rationing their calls home. Many will be there throughout the holidays.
Really support our troops --Send phone cards of any amount to:
Medical Family Assistance Center
Walter Reed Medical Center
6900 Georgia Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20307-5001
They say they need an "endless" supply of these -- any amount even $5 is greatly appreciated.
Walmart has good prices on AT&T cards, Sams Club is even better, if you are a member.
I hope that you will seriously consider making a donation. Here are some other organizations helping our soldiers and their families:
Spirit of America
Soldier's Angels
Finally, from a naval officer I respect a great deal, an e-mail on how to aid wounded troops in the two weeks left before Christmas:
"Yellow ribbons tied around trees and red, white and blue
stickers on the backs SUVs saying "Support our Troops"
are things that make civilians feel good but do nothing
for the men and women actually in uniform."
So please consider the following:
The number ONE request at Walter Reed hospital is phone cards. The government doesn't pay long distance phone charges and these wounded soldiers are rationing their calls home. Many will be there throughout the holidays.
Really support our troops --Send phone cards of any amount to:
Medical Family Assistance Center
Walter Reed Medical Center
6900 Georgia Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20307-5001
They say they need an "endless" supply of these -- any amount even $5 is greatly appreciated.
Walmart has good prices on AT&T cards, Sams Club is even better, if you are a member.
I hope that you will seriously consider making a donation. Here are some other organizations helping our soldiers and their families:
Spirit of America
Soldier's Angels
Miami at Denver: Broncos Struggle, but Win
The Dolphins have to be one of the best 2-12 teams ever. Their defense is very good and manages to keep them in every game, just as they did against the Broncos. The Miami offense also moves the ball down the field, but then they make some key mistakes. Watching them, you really see the damage inflicted by Ricky Williams. A solid running game could easily have reversed the outcomes of many of their games.
The Broncos struggled at times against the Dolphins, with 2 Droughns fumbles and another Plummer pass tipped from a butter-fingered receiver to an opposing DB. But they managed to pull together for the win.
And this was a big win! The Broncos put themselves back into serious contention for the final playoff spot, tied with the Ravens. A loss to Miami, coupled with a very tough schedule to finish the year, and the Broncos may have been out of it.
Denver showed the kind of mental toughness it will take to make a push in the final 3 weeks. Now Droughns and the Broncos receivers must figure out how to hold onto the ball. If they can do that, Denver has a good shot at a playoff spot.
And one last thing. Ignore Shannon Sharpe. He was a great Bronco and had no peers when it came to trash talking, but to advocate firing Shanahan was just plain nonsense. Sharpe should know better than anyone that you don't blame a QB for receivers that can't catch, and you don't fire a Head Coach who was the last to win back to back Super Bowls.
The Broncos struggled at times against the Dolphins, with 2 Droughns fumbles and another Plummer pass tipped from a butter-fingered receiver to an opposing DB. But they managed to pull together for the win.
And this was a big win! The Broncos put themselves back into serious contention for the final playoff spot, tied with the Ravens. A loss to Miami, coupled with a very tough schedule to finish the year, and the Broncos may have been out of it.
Denver showed the kind of mental toughness it will take to make a push in the final 3 weeks. Now Droughns and the Broncos receivers must figure out how to hold onto the ball. If they can do that, Denver has a good shot at a playoff spot.
And one last thing. Ignore Shannon Sharpe. He was a great Bronco and had no peers when it came to trash talking, but to advocate firing Shanahan was just plain nonsense. Sharpe should know better than anyone that you don't blame a QB for receivers that can't catch, and you don't fire a Head Coach who was the last to win back to back Super Bowls.
Monday, December 13, 2004
Seattle at Minnesota: Vikings Give One Away
Seattle takes over first place in the NFC West by beating the Vikings on Sunday. It was the first time in about a month that the Seahawks have shown any heart. They held off the Vikes for a win, but it was more like the Vikings handed them this one.
Both defenses were pretty inept in the first half, but they both rebounded in the second. Seattle moved the ball pretty well in the second half, but had to settle for 2 field goals. It was more than enough to overcome the Vikings' play-calling and clock-management mistakes.
In the second half the Vikings abandoned the run and once again forced Culpepper into full pass mode. The Seahawks stepped up their defensive pressure, and the Vikes folded up. Onterrio Smith had only 2 attempts in the second half and fumbled a third. Michael Bennett came in for some plays and did well running on the few attempts he got.
Then, with Seattle leading 27-23 and a little over 3 minutes left in the game, the Vikings got the ball at their 27 and quickly marched downfield to the Seattle 20 with 2:16 remaining.
Here is where the Vikings coaching staff apparently suffered simultaneous blackouts and some junior staffer took over. I say this because the smart thing to do in this situation is to run down the clock a little bit and try to score a TD with less than 40 seconds left in the game. One run by Bennett or Smith would have taken the clock to 2:00. It also would have left the Vikings some options to try and score on the ground rather than risking interceptions.
But the Vikings decided to try to score a TD as quickly as possible and leave plenty of time for their pathetic defense to allow Seattle to drive only 40-50 yards for field goal position. This strange strategy might have worked, but they decided to remove any doubt and allow Randy Moss to attempt the apparent game-winning-only-to-be-lost-by-the-defense TD pass. It was, to nobody's surprise, picked off.
In an earlier post I praised Bill Cowher for his smart play to let Jerome Bettis throw a pass which was caught for a TD. I am not being inconsistent. Cowher called this play after running Bettis up the gut of the Jets several times and luring them into believing that Bettis was going to be the one to carry it in. Bettis is a RB, not a WR, which also helps to pull the defense up and open an area up for a receiver.
Bettis' pass only had to travel a few yards, where Moss' pass was over 20 yards. There was no real threat of Moss running, so the DBs stayed back in coverage. And, finally, the play with Bettis was not a do or die situation where the game, division title, and a playoff berth may have been on the line.
Cowher showed how to game plan, use the running game, and bait your opponent into coverage that you can take advantage of. Tice showed that he hasn't a clue how to manage the clock, use the running game, or adjust to their opponents.
And that is why Cowher is headed to the playoffs again, and the Vikings are going through another late-season collapse.
Both defenses were pretty inept in the first half, but they both rebounded in the second. Seattle moved the ball pretty well in the second half, but had to settle for 2 field goals. It was more than enough to overcome the Vikings' play-calling and clock-management mistakes.
In the second half the Vikings abandoned the run and once again forced Culpepper into full pass mode. The Seahawks stepped up their defensive pressure, and the Vikes folded up. Onterrio Smith had only 2 attempts in the second half and fumbled a third. Michael Bennett came in for some plays and did well running on the few attempts he got.
Then, with Seattle leading 27-23 and a little over 3 minutes left in the game, the Vikings got the ball at their 27 and quickly marched downfield to the Seattle 20 with 2:16 remaining.
Here is where the Vikings coaching staff apparently suffered simultaneous blackouts and some junior staffer took over. I say this because the smart thing to do in this situation is to run down the clock a little bit and try to score a TD with less than 40 seconds left in the game. One run by Bennett or Smith would have taken the clock to 2:00. It also would have left the Vikings some options to try and score on the ground rather than risking interceptions.
But the Vikings decided to try to score a TD as quickly as possible and leave plenty of time for their pathetic defense to allow Seattle to drive only 40-50 yards for field goal position. This strange strategy might have worked, but they decided to remove any doubt and allow Randy Moss to attempt the apparent game-winning-only-to-be-lost-by-the-defense TD pass. It was, to nobody's surprise, picked off.
In an earlier post I praised Bill Cowher for his smart play to let Jerome Bettis throw a pass which was caught for a TD. I am not being inconsistent. Cowher called this play after running Bettis up the gut of the Jets several times and luring them into believing that Bettis was going to be the one to carry it in. Bettis is a RB, not a WR, which also helps to pull the defense up and open an area up for a receiver.
Bettis' pass only had to travel a few yards, where Moss' pass was over 20 yards. There was no real threat of Moss running, so the DBs stayed back in coverage. And, finally, the play with Bettis was not a do or die situation where the game, division title, and a playoff berth may have been on the line.
Cowher showed how to game plan, use the running game, and bait your opponent into coverage that you can take advantage of. Tice showed that he hasn't a clue how to manage the clock, use the running game, or adjust to their opponents.
And that is why Cowher is headed to the playoffs again, and the Vikings are going through another late-season collapse.
Cincy at New England: No Upset Here
On Saturday I reluctantly predicted the Bengals would upset the Pats. It didn't happen that way, but I do feel a little bit vindicated by how well Cincinatti played. They won the statistical battle and had a chance to win in the end, but just couldn't get over the hump.
The Patriots needed some big plays on defense to come out on top. The Bengals turned the ball over in the red-zone twice and the Pats took another interception in for a score. This was the difference in the game.
The Bengals are looking better every week. And by the way, the Bengals out-gained the Pats on the ground and in the air. So I was right about the Bengals being more fired up than Corey Dillon. The Bengals are getting close to being a playoff team and the decsion to start Palmer this year was obviously correct. This is a team to watch next year.
The Patriots won the big game and kept pace with the Steelers for home field advantage, but they showed they were vulnerable. They should win out for the rest of the season, it's a pretty weak schedule, and could be the home team in a playoff match with the Steelers. They should hope so. It will be very difficult to beat Pittsburgh at Heinz field.
The Patriots needed some big plays on defense to come out on top. The Bengals turned the ball over in the red-zone twice and the Pats took another interception in for a score. This was the difference in the game.
The Bengals are looking better every week. And by the way, the Bengals out-gained the Pats on the ground and in the air. So I was right about the Bengals being more fired up than Corey Dillon. The Bengals are getting close to being a playoff team and the decsion to start Palmer this year was obviously correct. This is a team to watch next year.
The Patriots won the big game and kept pace with the Steelers for home field advantage, but they showed they were vulnerable. They should win out for the rest of the season, it's a pretty weak schedule, and could be the home team in a playoff match with the Steelers. They should hope so. It will be very difficult to beat Pittsburgh at Heinz field.
NY Jets at Pittsburgh
The big game of the week was fun to watch if you're into defensive, smashmouth football. The Jets are a good football team and will be in the playoffs. But the Steelers demonstrated one more time why they are the team to beat in the AFC, not New England.
The first half was all defense, but you could see the main reason I think Pittsburgh is going to the Super Bowl. The Steelers play great defense! They may not stuff you 3-and-out every time, but they just keep coming from all different directions and mixing things up.
In the second half you could see the other reason I think the Steelers are going to the Super Bowl. The offense started wearing the Jets down. Using 3 different running backs they kept a fresh pair of legs on the field. And in the 4th quarter the Bus, running strong and being fresh, was unstoppable.
And Bill Cowher demonstrated how to put a game away. The Steelers were only a few yards from the end-zone and had used Bettis to get them into scoring position. Then, using Bettis to draw the entire defense forward, Cowher had him throw to a wide open receiver in the end zone. You gotta love it!
Pittsburgh is winning the way most Super Bowl champs win; solid defense, strong running, and good coaching.
The first half was all defense, but you could see the main reason I think Pittsburgh is going to the Super Bowl. The Steelers play great defense! They may not stuff you 3-and-out every time, but they just keep coming from all different directions and mixing things up.
In the second half you could see the other reason I think the Steelers are going to the Super Bowl. The offense started wearing the Jets down. Using 3 different running backs they kept a fresh pair of legs on the field. And in the 4th quarter the Bus, running strong and being fresh, was unstoppable.
And Bill Cowher demonstrated how to put a game away. The Steelers were only a few yards from the end-zone and had used Bettis to get them into scoring position. Then, using Bettis to draw the entire defense forward, Cowher had him throw to a wide open receiver in the end zone. You gotta love it!
Pittsburgh is winning the way most Super Bowl champs win; solid defense, strong running, and good coaching.
Sunday, December 12, 2004
Faulk, Jackson, and Chandler Out for Rams; Advantage Rams?
At first glance the absence of three of the Rams' best players would seem to suggest that the Rams will struggle against the Panthers today. But that is not always how things work out.
Consider this, Mike Martz has had time to develop a game plan suited to the players he has healthy. He may not be the best game-day coach in the league, or even in the top 25, but he does know how to game plan. He can mix things up and come out with some real surprises. On the other side, the Panthers defense cannot possibly prepare themselves completely for what may be coming.
How many times over the years have we seen a QB or RB go down in a game and then watched their replacements have stellar games. It happens all the time. The reason is that coaches adjust their play calling to the players they have on the field, and to the confidence they have in each individual players. The most recent example of this is Chad Hutchinson against the Viking last week.
Look for the Panthers defense to struggle a bit against the Rams in the first half, but then adjust in the second half and play better. Also, a tip here for Fantasy players with Nick Goings on their rosters, look for the Panthers to work very hard to establish the run and keep the Rams offense off the field.
This is a dangerous game for the Panthers, winning or losing could depend on how well they adjust to what the Rams are doing.
Consider this, Mike Martz has had time to develop a game plan suited to the players he has healthy. He may not be the best game-day coach in the league, or even in the top 25, but he does know how to game plan. He can mix things up and come out with some real surprises. On the other side, the Panthers defense cannot possibly prepare themselves completely for what may be coming.
How many times over the years have we seen a QB or RB go down in a game and then watched their replacements have stellar games. It happens all the time. The reason is that coaches adjust their play calling to the players they have on the field, and to the confidence they have in each individual players. The most recent example of this is Chad Hutchinson against the Viking last week.
Look for the Panthers defense to struggle a bit against the Rams in the first half, but then adjust in the second half and play better. Also, a tip here for Fantasy players with Nick Goings on their rosters, look for the Panthers to work very hard to establish the run and keep the Rams offense off the field.
This is a dangerous game for the Panthers, winning or losing could depend on how well they adjust to what the Rams are doing.
Saturday, December 11, 2004
Upset Pick of the Week
I touched on this in an earlier post. I think the Bengals have a real shot at stealing a win from the Patriots. I can give you many reasons why I am probably wrong, but my gut tells me the Bengals can pull it off.
I have Rudi Johnson and Houshmen(whatever) on my Fantasy team, and they are on the bench this week. That should tell you something about my confidence level in the pick. I feel like those cartoon characters that have just run 10 feet past the edge of the cliff and are looking down at the fall that is coming after a brief comedic pause.
But I just can't shake this feeling. The Bengals looked so good against a very good Ravens defense last week! They could do it again, right? Right?
Corey Dillon has something to prove? Sure. So do the Bengals! So does Rudi(contract season)! So does the Bengals defense that has been hearing nothing but how Dillon will run all over them. A win here goes a long way toward putting the Bengals in playoff position. A loss all but ends their playoff aspirations.
With this much on the line, I think the Bengals will surprise this week.
I have Rudi Johnson and Houshmen(whatever) on my Fantasy team, and they are on the bench this week. That should tell you something about my confidence level in the pick. I feel like those cartoon characters that have just run 10 feet past the edge of the cliff and are looking down at the fall that is coming after a brief comedic pause.
But I just can't shake this feeling. The Bengals looked so good against a very good Ravens defense last week! They could do it again, right? Right?
Corey Dillon has something to prove? Sure. So do the Bengals! So does Rudi(contract season)! So does the Bengals defense that has been hearing nothing but how Dillon will run all over them. A win here goes a long way toward putting the Bengals in playoff position. A loss all but ends their playoff aspirations.
With this much on the line, I think the Bengals will surprise this week.
Another Reason NOT to Read Sports Illustrated
I used to love Sports Illustrated. But their narrow focus, unabashed love affair with the BCS, and shallow coverage of football convinced me that they were not worth my time. I recently picked up the copy with USC on the cover and their latest "you gotta love the BCS title game" BS inside. I was at a doctor's office and was very bored. I began reading an op-ed piece by a guy named Rushin (last name).
He was yet another media guy apparently appalled that Notre Dame would have the gall to fire someone. I reluctantly read on, expecting more of the ESPN-type "was this a racial thing" reporting. Instead, I was treated to an article about how impatient we football fans are. We were criticized for expecting a winning season in only 3 years!!
You see, there were some actors and actresses who didn't win Oscars until they were in their 60s or 70s. There are people in this country who actually find success only after decades of hard work and dedication. College ADs should be more patient and allow their coaches to grow into their jobs.
Comparing college football coaches to Hollywood actors is ludicrous on its face. And it completely ignores the real reason that Willingham was fired. In college football, a coach MUST do two things to be considered successful. They must produce winning seasons, and they must beat (or at least compete with) their biggest rivals. Ty Willingham did neither.
Mr. Rushin believes Willingham should have been given more time. Maybe he's right, but using Hollywood actresses and people impatiently pushing elevator buttons to make his point was shallow and uninformed.
To convince anyone that Willingham should have been given more time, you would to make the case that his recruiting was about to pay off. You would have to point out where he was making progress and give examples of his progress on the field. Instead, SI and Mr. Rushin treat us to this tripe comparing Notre Dame to Driving Miss Daisy. Please!
And not one word about Notre Dame's recent blowouts at the hands of USC, their arch-rival, in consecutive seasons.
SI should stick to snivelling at the feet of the BCS and taking pictures of scantily clad models on the exotic beaches of the world. Real analysis is beyond them.
He was yet another media guy apparently appalled that Notre Dame would have the gall to fire someone. I reluctantly read on, expecting more of the ESPN-type "was this a racial thing" reporting. Instead, I was treated to an article about how impatient we football fans are. We were criticized for expecting a winning season in only 3 years!!
You see, there were some actors and actresses who didn't win Oscars until they were in their 60s or 70s. There are people in this country who actually find success only after decades of hard work and dedication. College ADs should be more patient and allow their coaches to grow into their jobs.
Comparing college football coaches to Hollywood actors is ludicrous on its face. And it completely ignores the real reason that Willingham was fired. In college football, a coach MUST do two things to be considered successful. They must produce winning seasons, and they must beat (or at least compete with) their biggest rivals. Ty Willingham did neither.
Mr. Rushin believes Willingham should have been given more time. Maybe he's right, but using Hollywood actresses and people impatiently pushing elevator buttons to make his point was shallow and uninformed.
To convince anyone that Willingham should have been given more time, you would to make the case that his recruiting was about to pay off. You would have to point out where he was making progress and give examples of his progress on the field. Instead, SI and Mr. Rushin treat us to this tripe comparing Notre Dame to Driving Miss Daisy. Please!
And not one word about Notre Dame's recent blowouts at the hands of USC, their arch-rival, in consecutive seasons.
SI should stick to snivelling at the feet of the BCS and taking pictures of scantily clad models on the exotic beaches of the world. Real analysis is beyond them.
Friday, December 10, 2004
Tice Exploring Options?
WCCO in Minneapolis reported a while ago that the Washington Huskies might be interested in Vikings coah Mike Tice. Apparently the Seattle Post-Intelligencer and the Pioneer Press are reporting that Washington is interested in Tice, and Tice would be interested in Washington, but not until his current contract expires in January.
I can't say this surprises me. I am a big Vikings fan, and after watching the debacle against the Bears last week, I can't say I would miss him, either. I think Coach Tice sees the writing on the wall. The fact that we have heard nothing of contract negotiations with the Vikings suggests that the team is waiting to see how the team plays down the stretch and into the playoffs, before making any kind of offer.
Tice was hired a few years ago for a couple of reasons; it was easy, and he was cheap. Ownership has not shown any real commitment to long-term winning since Red McCombs took over.
Tice's inexperience showed on a few occassions, the botched draft pick two years ago is only the most blatant example. His pronouncement last year that Randy Moss would get 40% of the touches in each game was another major blunder. But, to his credit, the players seem to like him and he does bring a winning attitude to the organization.
If you had asked me a month ago if the Vikings should keep Tice for another couple of years, I would have said yes. But today I would say "No, it's time to move on."
Here are my reasons for saying Coach Tice should be allowed to leave:
1. No noticeable improvement in defense under Tice. If anything, the defense has become worse. When Chad Hutchinson can rip you apart, you have issues.
2. The Vikings now have no clue what to do with their running game. It's not that they don't have a running game, they have a very good one. The Vikes are 2nd in the league in Yards per Rush Attempt, but 25th in Rush Attempts. If you average 4.8 yards/rush, you should be running the ball consistently, 25 times per game. Not the Vikings! Onterrio Smith was tearing the Bears apart last week, then they stopped giving him the ball. Stupid!
3. Over-reliance on the passing game (Randy Moss). See number 2.
4. Not adjusting to conditions. This is a big one. When playing in the Metrodome you can pass all day long. But when you go outside, in the cold, on grass, you must change your game plan. The Vikings are not willing to commit to the run when conditions warrant it.
5. Not adjusting to what the opponent is doing. The Vikings coaches were completely inept during the Bears game. In the first half it became very obvious that the Bears, with Urlacher back in action, would be blitzing and using a high-pressure front to get to Culpepper. It worked very well. You would expect the Vikings to adjust to that and start using plays to slow down the blitzes and pressure. Nothing doing! No screens, no delayed draws, very few quick outs, and even fewer quick slant routes. They kept trying to throw mid- to long-range passes to a less-than-100% Randy Moss. In the meantime, when they did occassionally go to the run game, they would get big gains. Then they would come right back with 3 or 4 passes.
If Mike Tice does not re-sign with the Vikings it is doubtful any other NFL team would pick him up as a head coach. If he wants to continue as a head coach, his only options may be in the college ranks. That might be a good move for him.
I can't say this surprises me. I am a big Vikings fan, and after watching the debacle against the Bears last week, I can't say I would miss him, either. I think Coach Tice sees the writing on the wall. The fact that we have heard nothing of contract negotiations with the Vikings suggests that the team is waiting to see how the team plays down the stretch and into the playoffs, before making any kind of offer.
Tice was hired a few years ago for a couple of reasons; it was easy, and he was cheap. Ownership has not shown any real commitment to long-term winning since Red McCombs took over.
Tice's inexperience showed on a few occassions, the botched draft pick two years ago is only the most blatant example. His pronouncement last year that Randy Moss would get 40% of the touches in each game was another major blunder. But, to his credit, the players seem to like him and he does bring a winning attitude to the organization.
If you had asked me a month ago if the Vikings should keep Tice for another couple of years, I would have said yes. But today I would say "No, it's time to move on."
Here are my reasons for saying Coach Tice should be allowed to leave:
1. No noticeable improvement in defense under Tice. If anything, the defense has become worse. When Chad Hutchinson can rip you apart, you have issues.
2. The Vikings now have no clue what to do with their running game. It's not that they don't have a running game, they have a very good one. The Vikes are 2nd in the league in Yards per Rush Attempt, but 25th in Rush Attempts. If you average 4.8 yards/rush, you should be running the ball consistently, 25 times per game. Not the Vikings! Onterrio Smith was tearing the Bears apart last week, then they stopped giving him the ball. Stupid!
3. Over-reliance on the passing game (Randy Moss). See number 2.
4. Not adjusting to conditions. This is a big one. When playing in the Metrodome you can pass all day long. But when you go outside, in the cold, on grass, you must change your game plan. The Vikings are not willing to commit to the run when conditions warrant it.
5. Not adjusting to what the opponent is doing. The Vikings coaches were completely inept during the Bears game. In the first half it became very obvious that the Bears, with Urlacher back in action, would be blitzing and using a high-pressure front to get to Culpepper. It worked very well. You would expect the Vikings to adjust to that and start using plays to slow down the blitzes and pressure. Nothing doing! No screens, no delayed draws, very few quick outs, and even fewer quick slant routes. They kept trying to throw mid- to long-range passes to a less-than-100% Randy Moss. In the meantime, when they did occassionally go to the run game, they would get big gains. Then they would come right back with 3 or 4 passes.
If Mike Tice does not re-sign with the Vikings it is doubtful any other NFL team would pick him up as a head coach. If he wants to continue as a head coach, his only options may be in the college ranks. That might be a good move for him.
Harrison Signs Contract Extension
Marvin Harrison has signed a 7-year extension with the Colts for $67 million. I have been wondering how the Colts would deal with Harrison, Stokely, and James; and what affect that would have on the defense. Now we know.
If they sign Edgerrin James and Brandon Stokley to new contracts in the off-season, they will have little to no room under the cap to improve the defense. If they want to improve the defense, they will have to let James or Stokely go.
Harrison's signing, I think, shows they are committed to keeping the offense intact no matter what. That means a few more years of explosive offense and poor defense.
You have to question the wisdom of this approach. I have never agreed with spending all your money on a few studs while the rest of the team deteriorates. The Colts will become a team one injury away from disaster. If Manning or Harrison go down, offensive production could drop drastically, and their defense is not capable of carrying them for any length of time.
Another factor to consider. How happy is Edgerrin James? What must he be thinking watching the Colts throwing 2-yard TD passes while he is a decoy? He may a good team player, but he has to consider other options if he wants to be the featured player on his team.
And finally, the Colts have not gone deep into the playoffs and made a serious run at the Super Bowl under Manning. They are a team built for winning indoors. How will that help them against Pittsburgh, New England, or any other serious AFC playoff contender? It won't. They have ignored the success formula of the rest of the NFL playoff teams; strong running game, strong defense, good team balance.
The Colts have guaranteed winning seasons and probable division titles for the next few years, but they have also guaranteed continued playoff failures.
If they sign Edgerrin James and Brandon Stokley to new contracts in the off-season, they will have little to no room under the cap to improve the defense. If they want to improve the defense, they will have to let James or Stokely go.
Harrison's signing, I think, shows they are committed to keeping the offense intact no matter what. That means a few more years of explosive offense and poor defense.
You have to question the wisdom of this approach. I have never agreed with spending all your money on a few studs while the rest of the team deteriorates. The Colts will become a team one injury away from disaster. If Manning or Harrison go down, offensive production could drop drastically, and their defense is not capable of carrying them for any length of time.
Another factor to consider. How happy is Edgerrin James? What must he be thinking watching the Colts throwing 2-yard TD passes while he is a decoy? He may a good team player, but he has to consider other options if he wants to be the featured player on his team.
And finally, the Colts have not gone deep into the playoffs and made a serious run at the Super Bowl under Manning. They are a team built for winning indoors. How will that help them against Pittsburgh, New England, or any other serious AFC playoff contender? It won't. They have ignored the success formula of the rest of the NFL playoff teams; strong running game, strong defense, good team balance.
The Colts have guaranteed winning seasons and probable division titles for the next few years, but they have also guaranteed continued playoff failures.
Week 14 Preview
Best Games to Watch:
New York Jets at Pittsburgh: There is a lot of hype around this game and it should be a fun one to watch. The Jets come in without John Abraham, but Pennington is back in the lineup. The Steelers will be without Plaxico Burress. The Steelers should be able to run on the Jets and their defense should be able to contain Pennington and Martin. The Steelers just have too much riding on this game to let one slip away at home.
Tampa Bay at San Diego: Tampa is on a roll and badly needs this game to strengthen their playoff ambitions. San Diego won a big one last week against the Broncos, but they won't get 2 passes tipped to them for interceptions this week. I think the Bucs will hold the Chargers defensively and get their run game going. It might be close, but the Bucs should win this one.
Cincinnati at New England: According to their records, and what everyone is saying, you would expect New England to win going away this week. I can't point to anything specific, but I think the Bengals might surprise some people this weekend and put a scare into the Patriots or even beat them. Everyone is talking about Corey Dillon wanting to prove himself against his old team, but that cuts both ways. The Bengals also have plenty to prove. They put up impressive numbers against the Ravens' defense last week, so they are definitely capable of keeping up with the Pats. This could be a big upset.
Oakland at Atlanta: This could be a shootout. The Raiders have been scoring buckets of points lately, but they will not be able to stop the Falcons. Atlanta should wrap up their division this week.
The Rest of the Schedule
Seattle at Minnesota: Two teams with a lot on the line. The Seahawks have shown how little heart they have, and the Vikings are back home with a chance to get a firm grip on a playoff spot. The Vikings will put up way too many points for the Seahawks to keep up.
Miami at Denver: If the Broncos lose this one, another season will slip away. I think they will come out with some real fire and put this away early.
Chicago at Jacksonville: The Bears looked very different with Urlacher back in the lineup. But this ain't the Vikings bad defense! The Jags win this one.
New York Giants at Baltimore: Baltimore's vaunted defense has a few cracks! Cincy burned them pretty good. They will be fired up after last week's performance and come after Manning with a vengeance. After this one, the Giants can really start talking about next year.
Indianapolis at Houston: The Colts have to be careful. They keep blowing teams out, but Manning is staying in the game way too long. I know everyone wants him to break the record and throw 70 TDs, but they need to think about the long term and stop risking the franchise. Colts in a blowout.
Cleveland at Buffalo: The Bills need to be careful here. They are rolling, but a let-down here could cost them a playoff spot. Their easy schedule down the stretch makes them a team to watch. They just need to avoid the upset. They should win big at home.
New Orleans at Dallas: No way the Saints slow down Julius Jones and the Cowboys. Parcells has his running game, his experienced QB, and a decent defense. They are making a run at the playoffs and the Saints have no answer.
Detroit at Green Bay: Green Bay was humiliated at Philly. Favre won't let that happen again. Packers, big!
St Louis at Carolina: The Panthers have also found their running game and Delhomme is hot. They have their confidence up and should take another step closer to a playoff spot with a big win here. St Louis hasn't shown they can win outdoors, and I don't think that will change now.
San Francisco at Arizona: Meaningless? I don't think so. The Cardinals will win this game and could find themselves only a game back in the division. Now, if they could just settle on a QB!
Philadelphia at Washington: The Redskins have no chance if the Eagles come ready to play.
Kansas City at Tennessee: I can't think of too many reasons to watch this one. KC wins, but it has no impact on anything.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh: There is a lot of hype around this game and it should be a fun one to watch. The Jets come in without John Abraham, but Pennington is back in the lineup. The Steelers will be without Plaxico Burress. The Steelers should be able to run on the Jets and their defense should be able to contain Pennington and Martin. The Steelers just have too much riding on this game to let one slip away at home.
Tampa Bay at San Diego: Tampa is on a roll and badly needs this game to strengthen their playoff ambitions. San Diego won a big one last week against the Broncos, but they won't get 2 passes tipped to them for interceptions this week. I think the Bucs will hold the Chargers defensively and get their run game going. It might be close, but the Bucs should win this one.
Cincinnati at New England: According to their records, and what everyone is saying, you would expect New England to win going away this week. I can't point to anything specific, but I think the Bengals might surprise some people this weekend and put a scare into the Patriots or even beat them. Everyone is talking about Corey Dillon wanting to prove himself against his old team, but that cuts both ways. The Bengals also have plenty to prove. They put up impressive numbers against the Ravens' defense last week, so they are definitely capable of keeping up with the Pats. This could be a big upset.
Oakland at Atlanta: This could be a shootout. The Raiders have been scoring buckets of points lately, but they will not be able to stop the Falcons. Atlanta should wrap up their division this week.
The Rest of the Schedule
Seattle at Minnesota: Two teams with a lot on the line. The Seahawks have shown how little heart they have, and the Vikings are back home with a chance to get a firm grip on a playoff spot. The Vikings will put up way too many points for the Seahawks to keep up.
Miami at Denver: If the Broncos lose this one, another season will slip away. I think they will come out with some real fire and put this away early.
Chicago at Jacksonville: The Bears looked very different with Urlacher back in the lineup. But this ain't the Vikings bad defense! The Jags win this one.
New York Giants at Baltimore: Baltimore's vaunted defense has a few cracks! Cincy burned them pretty good. They will be fired up after last week's performance and come after Manning with a vengeance. After this one, the Giants can really start talking about next year.
Indianapolis at Houston: The Colts have to be careful. They keep blowing teams out, but Manning is staying in the game way too long. I know everyone wants him to break the record and throw 70 TDs, but they need to think about the long term and stop risking the franchise. Colts in a blowout.
Cleveland at Buffalo: The Bills need to be careful here. They are rolling, but a let-down here could cost them a playoff spot. Their easy schedule down the stretch makes them a team to watch. They just need to avoid the upset. They should win big at home.
New Orleans at Dallas: No way the Saints slow down Julius Jones and the Cowboys. Parcells has his running game, his experienced QB, and a decent defense. They are making a run at the playoffs and the Saints have no answer.
Detroit at Green Bay: Green Bay was humiliated at Philly. Favre won't let that happen again. Packers, big!
St Louis at Carolina: The Panthers have also found their running game and Delhomme is hot. They have their confidence up and should take another step closer to a playoff spot with a big win here. St Louis hasn't shown they can win outdoors, and I don't think that will change now.
San Francisco at Arizona: Meaningless? I don't think so. The Cardinals will win this game and could find themselves only a game back in the division. Now, if they could just settle on a QB!
Philadelphia at Washington: The Redskins have no chance if the Eagles come ready to play.
Kansas City at Tennessee: I can't think of too many reasons to watch this one. KC wins, but it has no impact on anything.
Thursday, December 09, 2004
Fantasy Draft Strategy: RB Myth Debunked
Before this season began, there were two prevalent theories I found concerning draft strategy. The first was to draft running backs in the first 2 rounds, or at least 2 of the first 3 rounds. The second was to use the ever-popular Real Value method. My Fantasy League's playoffs are approaching, so I thought I would evaluate the results of using these 2 strategories (Bush-ism).
For those unfamiliar with Real Value, here is a quick overview. You rank players by position and project their point totals for the year based on your scoring system. Then you subtract the projected point totals of the first "non-starter" at each position. For example, in a 10-team league there are 10 starting QBs. Take the point total of the 11th QB, and subtract that number from all QBs. The result is the Real Value. In a 10-team league using 2 starting RBs, you would select the 23rd RB on your list, and subtract his point total from all RBs.
The Real Value method provides a much better way of comparing QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. In the 3 years I have used the Real Value method I have done quite well. I always made the playoffs using this system. I decided to ignore all the calls by the experts to draft RBs early and often, and used the Real Value method again this year.
To compare the different strategies, I decided not to use W-L records, since a lot of luck is involved there. Instead, I used total points scored for the year. Again, a little luck is involved here, but I think this is a much more reliable comparison.
Here is how the first 3 rounds of the draft broke down:
Team Points 1st 2nd 3rd
Pigskins 1015 RB WR QB
Jesters(me) 907 QB RB RB*
Landsharks 887 RB RB QB*
Steelers 877 RB QB WR
Bombers 861 QB RB WR*
Undergarments 823 RB WR QB
Rednecks 809 RB RB WR
Damage, Inc 807 RB RB RB
The Rage 754 RB WR RB
Seminoles 741 WR RB WR
*-Player injured for significant portion of the season.
Among the top 5 point-scorers, all 5 took a QB in the first 3 rounds and 3 teams took a QB in the first 2 rounds. Overall, 7 RBs were taken in the first 3 rounds.
Among the 5 lowest scoring teams, only 1 took a QB in the first 3 rounds and nobody took a QB in the first 2 rounds. Overall, 9 RBs were taken in the first 3 rounds.
Two teams, including myself, took QBs in the first round, Culpepper and Manning. I had the 4th pick and chose Culpepper, believing Manning was too inconsistent (yeah, right). Had I chosen a RB, it would have been Portis or Alexander. I believe I made the right choice over the course of an entire season based on real value.
Had I chosen Alexander, my next available QB would have been Favre. Together, they have scored 306. Culpepper and Rudi Johnson have scored 315. That is only 9 points, but I tied one game (won the tiebreaker) and won two other by tiny margins. Those 9 points may have been the difference between 1st in my division and 3rd in my division.
Also, Alexander may be the highest scoring RB in our league, but he is also the most inconsistent. Scoring over 20 points 4 times and 7 or fewer 4 times. Running backs also carry a higher risk of injury. Had I chosen Portis, I would be fighting hard for a playoff spot instead of a division title.
More than ever I am convinced that the Real Value method is the best way to draft. I also believe that getting a top-flight QB is important to winning consistently. Top quarterbacks produce more points more consistently than top RBs or WRs. Consistency is the key to winning in Fantasy leagues over the course of an entire season. Basing your draft strategy on strength of a position rather than best available talent is a mistake.
For those unfamiliar with Real Value, here is a quick overview. You rank players by position and project their point totals for the year based on your scoring system. Then you subtract the projected point totals of the first "non-starter" at each position. For example, in a 10-team league there are 10 starting QBs. Take the point total of the 11th QB, and subtract that number from all QBs. The result is the Real Value. In a 10-team league using 2 starting RBs, you would select the 23rd RB on your list, and subtract his point total from all RBs.
The Real Value method provides a much better way of comparing QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. In the 3 years I have used the Real Value method I have done quite well. I always made the playoffs using this system. I decided to ignore all the calls by the experts to draft RBs early and often, and used the Real Value method again this year.
To compare the different strategies, I decided not to use W-L records, since a lot of luck is involved there. Instead, I used total points scored for the year. Again, a little luck is involved here, but I think this is a much more reliable comparison.
Here is how the first 3 rounds of the draft broke down:
Team Points 1st 2nd 3rd
Pigskins 1015 RB WR QB
Jesters(me) 907 QB RB RB*
Landsharks 887 RB RB QB*
Steelers 877 RB QB WR
Bombers 861 QB RB WR*
Undergarments 823 RB WR QB
Rednecks 809 RB RB WR
Damage, Inc 807 RB RB RB
The Rage 754 RB WR RB
Seminoles 741 WR RB WR
*-Player injured for significant portion of the season.
Among the top 5 point-scorers, all 5 took a QB in the first 3 rounds and 3 teams took a QB in the first 2 rounds. Overall, 7 RBs were taken in the first 3 rounds.
Among the 5 lowest scoring teams, only 1 took a QB in the first 3 rounds and nobody took a QB in the first 2 rounds. Overall, 9 RBs were taken in the first 3 rounds.
Two teams, including myself, took QBs in the first round, Culpepper and Manning. I had the 4th pick and chose Culpepper, believing Manning was too inconsistent (yeah, right). Had I chosen a RB, it would have been Portis or Alexander. I believe I made the right choice over the course of an entire season based on real value.
Had I chosen Alexander, my next available QB would have been Favre. Together, they have scored 306. Culpepper and Rudi Johnson have scored 315. That is only 9 points, but I tied one game (won the tiebreaker) and won two other by tiny margins. Those 9 points may have been the difference between 1st in my division and 3rd in my division.
Also, Alexander may be the highest scoring RB in our league, but he is also the most inconsistent. Scoring over 20 points 4 times and 7 or fewer 4 times. Running backs also carry a higher risk of injury. Had I chosen Portis, I would be fighting hard for a playoff spot instead of a division title.
More than ever I am convinced that the Real Value method is the best way to draft. I also believe that getting a top-flight QB is important to winning consistently. Top quarterbacks produce more points more consistently than top RBs or WRs. Consistency is the key to winning in Fantasy leagues over the course of an entire season. Basing your draft strategy on strength of a position rather than best available talent is a mistake.
Manning vs Marino
There have been discussions lately comparing Dan Marino's 48 TD passes in 1984 to Peyton Manning's 44 TD tosses so far this year. I have been of the opinion that Marino did not face some of the pathetic types of defenses that Manning is seeing this year (Minn, Green Bay, Detroit, KC, Oakland, and Houston). Let's face it, Manning has not seen a lot of elite defenses this year. Only New England, Jacksonville (twice) and Tennessee (twice) can be said to have solid defenses. In 5 games against those better defenses, the Colts are 3-2.
I decided to look at the teams each of them faced and compare winning percentages and points per game that their opponents allowed. I was a bit surprised to see that Marino didn't exactly face stellar defenses either.
As examples, let's use New England this year as a top tier defense. They are allowing about 15 points per game. On the other side is the Chiefs, possibly the worst defense in the league this year. Their defense is allowing about 20 points per game. This isn't scientific, but splitting the difference is 17.5 points per game allowed. This would be, arguably, an average defensive units points allowed. Less would be above average.
Here is how the two QBs compare:
Opponents' Winning %: Marino - .426 Manning - .474
Opponents' Points Allowed: Marino - 16.8/gm Manning - 17.5/gm
As you can see, Marino played a slightly easier schedule, but Manning has played slightly weaker defenses. If Manning struggles the last 4 games and posts less than 52 TDs, you could make a case for Marino's season being as impressive as Manning's. But if Manning surpasses 52, in my opinion, that would end any argument Marino fans (including myself) could make. Manning has thrown a lot of very short TD passes, but not so many more than Marino did that you could use that against him.
The bottom line is this. Both QBs had exceptional seasons. But I think Manning is going break the record by so wide a margin that the Marino fans will have to (grudgingly) admit that Manning's numbers are not overly inflated by the poor defenses he is playing against.
I decided to look at the teams each of them faced and compare winning percentages and points per game that their opponents allowed. I was a bit surprised to see that Marino didn't exactly face stellar defenses either.
As examples, let's use New England this year as a top tier defense. They are allowing about 15 points per game. On the other side is the Chiefs, possibly the worst defense in the league this year. Their defense is allowing about 20 points per game. This isn't scientific, but splitting the difference is 17.5 points per game allowed. This would be, arguably, an average defensive units points allowed. Less would be above average.
Here is how the two QBs compare:
Opponents' Winning %: Marino - .426 Manning - .474
Opponents' Points Allowed: Marino - 16.8/gm Manning - 17.5/gm
As you can see, Marino played a slightly easier schedule, but Manning has played slightly weaker defenses. If Manning struggles the last 4 games and posts less than 52 TDs, you could make a case for Marino's season being as impressive as Manning's. But if Manning surpasses 52, in my opinion, that would end any argument Marino fans (including myself) could make. Manning has thrown a lot of very short TD passes, but not so many more than Marino did that you could use that against him.
The bottom line is this. Both QBs had exceptional seasons. But I think Manning is going break the record by so wide a margin that the Marino fans will have to (grudgingly) admit that Manning's numbers are not overly inflated by the poor defenses he is playing against.
Wednesday, December 08, 2004
AFC Playoff Picture
Division Leaders
1. Pittsburgh -- The Steelers should clinch their division soon. But home-field advantage is on the line and they have a slightly more difficult schedule than the Patriots. All 4 of their games are against teams that still have playoff hope.
2. New England -- Having lost to the Steelers, the Patriots know they probably have to win out for home field advantage. It's possible with this team, but this week's game against Cincy could be a real challenge, they ripped the Ravens' defense last week.
3. San Diego -- The Chargers really took control of the West last week by beating the Broncos. But they shouldn't get too confident. They have the Bucs at home, then outdoors in Cleveland, then at Indianapolis, and finish at home against KC. That's a pretty tough finish.
4. Indianapolis -- Can clinch their division against Houston this week. Then finish against 3 AFC playoff contenders, Baltimore, San Diego, and Denver. A win against San Diego could prove huge once the playoffs start if Pittsburgh or NE stumble.
Wildcards
5. New York Jets -- A two-game lead on Baltimore and Denver and 3 games over the other playoff wannabes almost assures the Jets of a wildcard spot. It is doubtful they could move up and take the division, but they do have a home game against the Patriots if they can surprise the Steelers this week.
6. Baltimore -- The Ravens are looking over their shoulders at the Broncos, Jags, Bengals, and Bills. They have home games against the Giants and Miami, and road games at Indy and Pittsburgh. Their defense will have to play much better down the stretch than they have in the last two games. If they stumble at home they are in big trouble.
Outside Looking In
Denver -- The loss to San Diego has placed the Broncos in a bad situation. Champ Bailey's Monday night meltdown against Oakland and their receivers tipping balls to the Chargers has cost them a division title and possibly a playoff spot. This week's game against Miami is a must-win, because the rest of the season will be tough.
Jacksonville -- They have a tough one at Green Bay in two weeks, but a very favorable schedule the rest of the way. This is a team that could move up.
Cincinnati -- The Bengals offense has been on a roll, but with games at New England and Philadelphia, it will be extremely difficult to move up. They will have to upset one of those teams and win at home to have any chance.
Buffalo -- Talk about being on a roll! Most people wrote this team off a month ago, but they have become the hottest team going. If they take care of business at home against Cleveland and steal one at Cincy the next week, they might just sneak in to the playoffs.
1. Pittsburgh -- The Steelers should clinch their division soon. But home-field advantage is on the line and they have a slightly more difficult schedule than the Patriots. All 4 of their games are against teams that still have playoff hope.
2. New England -- Having lost to the Steelers, the Patriots know they probably have to win out for home field advantage. It's possible with this team, but this week's game against Cincy could be a real challenge, they ripped the Ravens' defense last week.
3. San Diego -- The Chargers really took control of the West last week by beating the Broncos. But they shouldn't get too confident. They have the Bucs at home, then outdoors in Cleveland, then at Indianapolis, and finish at home against KC. That's a pretty tough finish.
4. Indianapolis -- Can clinch their division against Houston this week. Then finish against 3 AFC playoff contenders, Baltimore, San Diego, and Denver. A win against San Diego could prove huge once the playoffs start if Pittsburgh or NE stumble.
Wildcards
5. New York Jets -- A two-game lead on Baltimore and Denver and 3 games over the other playoff wannabes almost assures the Jets of a wildcard spot. It is doubtful they could move up and take the division, but they do have a home game against the Patriots if they can surprise the Steelers this week.
6. Baltimore -- The Ravens are looking over their shoulders at the Broncos, Jags, Bengals, and Bills. They have home games against the Giants and Miami, and road games at Indy and Pittsburgh. Their defense will have to play much better down the stretch than they have in the last two games. If they stumble at home they are in big trouble.
Outside Looking In
Denver -- The loss to San Diego has placed the Broncos in a bad situation. Champ Bailey's Monday night meltdown against Oakland and their receivers tipping balls to the Chargers has cost them a division title and possibly a playoff spot. This week's game against Miami is a must-win, because the rest of the season will be tough.
Jacksonville -- They have a tough one at Green Bay in two weeks, but a very favorable schedule the rest of the way. This is a team that could move up.
Cincinnati -- The Bengals offense has been on a roll, but with games at New England and Philadelphia, it will be extremely difficult to move up. They will have to upset one of those teams and win at home to have any chance.
Buffalo -- Talk about being on a roll! Most people wrote this team off a month ago, but they have become the hottest team going. If they take care of business at home against Cleveland and steal one at Cincy the next week, they might just sneak in to the playoffs.
NFC Playoff Picture
Division Leaders
1. Philadelphia -- The real challenge for the Eagles will be staying sharp for the next 4-5 weeks.
2. Atlanta -- The Falcons have a favorable schedule down the stretch, so the 2nd spot looks to be a lock.
3. Green Bay -- Only because they play in a pretty bad division. Don't let their record or the Vikings' record fool you. They are not going deep into the playoffs. If you doubt that, then I must refer you to the Packers catastrophe in Philly and the Vikings inexplicable loss to Chicago.
4. St Louis -- Really?? A 6-6 team leading the division. That pretty much sums up the NFC. The only thing more pathetic is the 2nd place team in that division currently holds a Wildcard spot!
Wildcards
5. Minnesota -- The Vikings just can't figure out how to use their running game. And Chicago made them pay. Maybe losing to Chad Hutchinson will wake them up. They should make the playoffs, but lack of defense and their cluelessness running the ball means an early exit.
6. Seattle -- If the Seahawks really make it I will be the first to suggest importing AFC teams that are more deserving. They have a tough schedule down the stretch and I really believe they will fall out of the playoffs and Mike Holmgren will be coaching elsewhere next year.
Outside Looking In
Carolina -- The Panthers have a tough schedule ahead, but they have re-discovered a running game and are looking more like a playoff team every week. At least in the NFC.
Chicago -- Urlacher's return probably means more to this team than Hutchinson's performance last week. The Bears play a couple tough games down the stretch, but a 3-1 finish is not out of the question. And that will be more than enough to pass Seattle. But can they pull it off?
Dallas -- OK, I'm convinced. Bill Parcells is a good coach. Not listening to the "bench Vinny" crowd and using the running game to perfection, the Cowboys, I believe, have turned the corner. If the defense can improve a bit, or be kept off the field more, the Cowboys could make a legitimate run at the playoffs.
Detroit -- A difficult schedule suggests the Lions may have to wait one more year for a playoff berth. But they have come a long way under Mariucci, and a couple of upsets could put them over the top.
New York Giants -- Does anyone think Eli has made them better? Injuries on defense and the QB switch means they are watching the playoffs on TV this year.
Tampa Bay -- The Bucs are my dark horse for making some noise in the playoffs this year. Gruden has them playing well and they absolutely dominated the Falcons. If they can beat San Diego this week they have a very favorable schedule the rest of the year. Tampa vs Philly for the NFC Championship??
1. Philadelphia -- The real challenge for the Eagles will be staying sharp for the next 4-5 weeks.
2. Atlanta -- The Falcons have a favorable schedule down the stretch, so the 2nd spot looks to be a lock.
3. Green Bay -- Only because they play in a pretty bad division. Don't let their record or the Vikings' record fool you. They are not going deep into the playoffs. If you doubt that, then I must refer you to the Packers catastrophe in Philly and the Vikings inexplicable loss to Chicago.
4. St Louis -- Really?? A 6-6 team leading the division. That pretty much sums up the NFC. The only thing more pathetic is the 2nd place team in that division currently holds a Wildcard spot!
Wildcards
5. Minnesota -- The Vikings just can't figure out how to use their running game. And Chicago made them pay. Maybe losing to Chad Hutchinson will wake them up. They should make the playoffs, but lack of defense and their cluelessness running the ball means an early exit.
6. Seattle -- If the Seahawks really make it I will be the first to suggest importing AFC teams that are more deserving. They have a tough schedule down the stretch and I really believe they will fall out of the playoffs and Mike Holmgren will be coaching elsewhere next year.
Outside Looking In
Carolina -- The Panthers have a tough schedule ahead, but they have re-discovered a running game and are looking more like a playoff team every week. At least in the NFC.
Chicago -- Urlacher's return probably means more to this team than Hutchinson's performance last week. The Bears play a couple tough games down the stretch, but a 3-1 finish is not out of the question. And that will be more than enough to pass Seattle. But can they pull it off?
Dallas -- OK, I'm convinced. Bill Parcells is a good coach. Not listening to the "bench Vinny" crowd and using the running game to perfection, the Cowboys, I believe, have turned the corner. If the defense can improve a bit, or be kept off the field more, the Cowboys could make a legitimate run at the playoffs.
Detroit -- A difficult schedule suggests the Lions may have to wait one more year for a playoff berth. But they have come a long way under Mariucci, and a couple of upsets could put them over the top.
New York Giants -- Does anyone think Eli has made them better? Injuries on defense and the QB switch means they are watching the playoffs on TV this year.
Tampa Bay -- The Bucs are my dark horse for making some noise in the playoffs this year. Gruden has them playing well and they absolutely dominated the Falcons. If they can beat San Diego this week they have a very favorable schedule the rest of the year. Tampa vs Philly for the NFC Championship??
More on the BCS
I'm not the only one angry at the BCS system. Fox Sports' Daryyl Richards agrees with me that the BCS failed agin and Pat Forde at ESPN also wants to see some changes. So far, I have not seen a convincing argument to keep the BCS.
Thanks for nothing, BCS
Here goes my first rant against the BCS. You can be sure there will be many more.
The BCS was created many years ago to put an end to the yearly debate about which college football team is the best in the country. So how are they doing? I don't remember too many years where they have prevented any controversy. In fact, I believe just the opposite: the BCS creates more controversy than they prevent.
This year, Auburn (AuBURNed!) joins the long list of teams denied a chance to play for the national title even though they definitely deserve it. I am not the only one who believes Auburn ought to be in the title game. A recent poll showed a majority of respondents agree that Auburn should be one of the teams in the Orange Bowl.
And this year the controversy goes one step further. A very deserving Cal team has been denied a Rose Bowl berth and replaced with Texas. This may prove to be more damaging to the BCS than the Auburn debacle. The Rose Bowl carries a lot of weight in the BCS and is running out of patience. They want a Big 10/PAC 10 matchup and Cal/Michigan was their dream pairing. Having been denied (again!), they are starting to grumble about withdrawing from the alliance. Dare we hope!?!?
I will be posting later this week on the folly of voting for champions. But the bottom line is this: Until there is college football playoff system, there will not be a TRUE college football champion. Championships are won on the field!!
The BCS was created many years ago to put an end to the yearly debate about which college football team is the best in the country. So how are they doing? I don't remember too many years where they have prevented any controversy. In fact, I believe just the opposite: the BCS creates more controversy than they prevent.
This year, Auburn (AuBURNed!) joins the long list of teams denied a chance to play for the national title even though they definitely deserve it. I am not the only one who believes Auburn ought to be in the title game. A recent poll showed a majority of respondents agree that Auburn should be one of the teams in the Orange Bowl.
And this year the controversy goes one step further. A very deserving Cal team has been denied a Rose Bowl berth and replaced with Texas. This may prove to be more damaging to the BCS than the Auburn debacle. The Rose Bowl carries a lot of weight in the BCS and is running out of patience. They want a Big 10/PAC 10 matchup and Cal/Michigan was their dream pairing. Having been denied (again!), they are starting to grumble about withdrawing from the alliance. Dare we hope!?!?
I will be posting later this week on the folly of voting for champions. But the bottom line is this: Until there is college football playoff system, there will not be a TRUE college football champion. Championships are won on the field!!
Pat Tillman: Hero
Dave's Football Blog has posted on the Washington Times article concerning Pat Tillman. I don't pretend to know what happened over there, but I do know the mainstream media have proven themselves unworthy of our trust. This wouldn't be the first time journalists have tried to tear down a public figure to further their own agenda.
Personally, I don't care what the circumstances are surrounding Tillman's death. Anytime someone walks away from professional football and millions of dollars to serve his country in wartime, he is a hero. No matter what kind medals are pinned on him.
With very few excpetions, every uniform holds a hero.
Personally, I don't care what the circumstances are surrounding Tillman's death. Anytime someone walks away from professional football and millions of dollars to serve his country in wartime, he is a hero. No matter what kind medals are pinned on him.
With very few excpetions, every uniform holds a hero.
Tuesday, December 07, 2004
Welcome!!
Welcome to the ArDubby Football Blog!! The blog dedicated to football, and only football. Pros, college, and Fantasy.
Eventually I hope to make this a place where you can find everything you are looking for; with links to Football sites of all sorts. I will be looking for sites providing good FFL stats and strategies, good College info, and other Football/sports blogs. I will also spend a good deal of time railing against the BCS "Championship" system/folly.
I grew up in Colorado and moved to Minnesota after the Broncos won their last Super Bowl, so you can guess where my prejudices are. But I will not concentrate on just those two areas, and I invite everyone to contribute with thier own opinions.
I will try to post on a daily basis during the season, and at least weekly during the off-season. I hope you enjoy this blog and actually get something out of it.
Thank You!!
Eventually I hope to make this a place where you can find everything you are looking for; with links to Football sites of all sorts. I will be looking for sites providing good FFL stats and strategies, good College info, and other Football/sports blogs. I will also spend a good deal of time railing against the BCS "Championship" system/folly.
I grew up in Colorado and moved to Minnesota after the Broncos won their last Super Bowl, so you can guess where my prejudices are. But I will not concentrate on just those two areas, and I invite everyone to contribute with thier own opinions.
I will try to post on a daily basis during the season, and at least weekly during the off-season. I hope you enjoy this blog and actually get something out of it.
Thank You!!
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