Fantasy Draft Strategy: RB Myth Debunked

Before this season began, there were two prevalent theories I found concerning draft strategy. The first was to draft running backs in the first 2 rounds, or at least 2 of the first 3 rounds. The second was to use the ever-popular Real Value method. My Fantasy League's playoffs are approaching, so I thought I would evaluate the results of using these 2 strategories (Bush-ism).

For those unfamiliar with Real Value, here is a quick overview. You rank players by position and project their point totals for the year based on your scoring system. Then you subtract the projected point totals of the first "non-starter" at each position. For example, in a 10-team league there are 10 starting QBs. Take the point total of the 11th QB, and subtract that number from all QBs. The result is the Real Value. In a 10-team league using 2 starting RBs, you would select the 23rd RB on your list, and subtract his point total from all RBs.

The Real Value method provides a much better way of comparing QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. In the 3 years I have used the Real Value method I have done quite well. I always made the playoffs using this system. I decided to ignore all the calls by the experts to draft RBs early and often, and used the Real Value method again this year.

To compare the different strategies, I decided not to use W-L records, since a lot of luck is involved there. Instead, I used total points scored for the year. Again, a little luck is involved here, but I think this is a much more reliable comparison.

Here is how the first 3 rounds of the draft broke down:
Team Points 1st 2nd 3rd
Pigskins 1015 RB WR QB
Jesters(me) 907 QB RB RB*
Landsharks 887 RB RB QB*
Steelers 877 RB QB WR
Bombers 861 QB RB WR*
Undergarments 823 RB WR QB
Rednecks 809 RB RB WR
Damage, Inc 807 RB RB RB
The Rage 754 RB WR RB
Seminoles 741 WR RB WR
*-Player injured for significant portion of the season.

Among the top 5 point-scorers, all 5 took a QB in the first 3 rounds and 3 teams took a QB in the first 2 rounds. Overall, 7 RBs were taken in the first 3 rounds.

Among the 5 lowest scoring teams, only 1 took a QB in the first 3 rounds and nobody took a QB in the first 2 rounds. Overall, 9 RBs were taken in the first 3 rounds.

Two teams, including myself, took QBs in the first round, Culpepper and Manning. I had the 4th pick and chose Culpepper, believing Manning was too inconsistent (yeah, right). Had I chosen a RB, it would have been Portis or Alexander. I believe I made the right choice over the course of an entire season based on real value.

Had I chosen Alexander, my next available QB would have been Favre. Together, they have scored 306. Culpepper and Rudi Johnson have scored 315. That is only 9 points, but I tied one game (won the tiebreaker) and won two other by tiny margins. Those 9 points may have been the difference between 1st in my division and 3rd in my division.

Also, Alexander may be the highest scoring RB in our league, but he is also the most inconsistent. Scoring over 20 points 4 times and 7 or fewer 4 times. Running backs also carry a higher risk of injury. Had I chosen Portis, I would be fighting hard for a playoff spot instead of a division title.

More than ever I am convinced that the Real Value method is the best way to draft. I also believe that getting a top-flight QB is important to winning consistently. Top quarterbacks produce more points more consistently than top RBs or WRs. Consistency is the key to winning in Fantasy leagues over the course of an entire season. Basing your draft strategy on strength of a position rather than best available talent is a mistake.