Manning vs Marino

There have been discussions lately comparing Dan Marino's 48 TD passes in 1984 to Peyton Manning's 44 TD tosses so far this year. I have been of the opinion that Marino did not face some of the pathetic types of defenses that Manning is seeing this year (Minn, Green Bay, Detroit, KC, Oakland, and Houston). Let's face it, Manning has not seen a lot of elite defenses this year. Only New England, Jacksonville (twice) and Tennessee (twice) can be said to have solid defenses. In 5 games against those better defenses, the Colts are 3-2.

I decided to look at the teams each of them faced and compare winning percentages and points per game that their opponents allowed. I was a bit surprised to see that Marino didn't exactly face stellar defenses either.

As examples, let's use New England this year as a top tier defense. They are allowing about 15 points per game. On the other side is the Chiefs, possibly the worst defense in the league this year. Their defense is allowing about 20 points per game. This isn't scientific, but splitting the difference is 17.5 points per game allowed. This would be, arguably, an average defensive units points allowed. Less would be above average.

Here is how the two QBs compare:
Opponents' Winning %: Marino - .426 Manning - .474
Opponents' Points Allowed: Marino - 16.8/gm Manning - 17.5/gm

As you can see, Marino played a slightly easier schedule, but Manning has played slightly weaker defenses. If Manning struggles the last 4 games and posts less than 52 TDs, you could make a case for Marino's season being as impressive as Manning's. But if Manning surpasses 52, in my opinion, that would end any argument Marino fans (including myself) could make. Manning has thrown a lot of very short TD passes, but not so many more than Marino did that you could use that against him.

The bottom line is this. Both QBs had exceptional seasons. But I think Manning is going break the record by so wide a margin that the Marino fans will have to (grudgingly) admit that Manning's numbers are not overly inflated by the poor defenses he is playing against.