The Jaguars, like the Bills, are one game behind Baltimore and Denver. The advantage the Jags have, however, is that they beat Denver and Buffalo early in the season, giving them the tiebreaker over both of those teams.
Jacksonville has a tough game this week on the frozen tundra of Green Bay, but after that they get Houston at home and travel to Oakland. If Denver, Baltimore, or the Jets stumble, the Jags are in good position to move up.
The best scenario for Jacksonville is for Denver and Baltimore to both lose on the road against good opponents this week, have the Bengals beat Buffalo, and then pull off the upset over the Packers. If that happens, there will be a 3-way tie for the final playoff spot (Denver, Baltimore, Jax) and the Jags will have the most favorable schedule of the the 3. Jacksonville would also then be tied in conference records with the Ravens and Broncos at 5-5.
The Jaguars would then have to win their final two games, probably, and hope that the Ravens lose to Pittsburgh and/or Miami in the final 2 weeks. That would leave the Jags, at worst, tied with the Broncos for the final spot. And the Jags would be in by virtue of their victory over Denver.
If Jacksonville loses to the Packers, however, they will be forced to win out and would also need a lot of help from others. And no team wants to stumble into the playoffs that way, it's better to win.
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