Defenses win championships. It's an old adage, but very true. There are many ways to measure great defenses, but turnover ratio is a good one to look at to see what affect turnovers have on the outcomes of Super Bowls.
On the other side of the ball, a good thing to look at is rushing yards. If a team can run the ball successfully, they have an excellent chance of winning. There have been a few pass-first teams to win the Super Bowl, but it is rare.
And to get a very good picture of how to win the Super Bowl, we just have to look at a combination of rush yards differential and turnover ratio. Win these two battles and you will win the Super Bowl, with very few exceptions.
Only twice in Super Bowl history has a team been out-rushed and lost the turnover battle and still come out on top on the scoreboard; the Baltimore Colts (SB-5) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (SB-14). And no team has accomplished this feat in 24 years.
So we can make a (not so) bold prediction. Whichever team can run the ball and get turnovers will win. By the way, if you look at how these teams got here, New England has a definite advantage in these areas.
A few other tidbits concerning rush yards differential and turnovers:
7 teams have been out-rushed in the SB and won.
4 Teams have lost the turnover battle and won.
No team has been +4 in turnover ratio and lost.
2 Teams have been -3 in turnover ratio and won.
Only 1 team (St Louis Rams) has been out-rushed by more than 100 yards and won.
SB-17 was the last time a team lost the turnover battle and won (Wash-27, Miami-17).
The winning teams have an all-time turnover ratio of +85!!
The winning teams have an all-time rush yards differential of +2,471 yards!!
Monday, January 31, 2005
Sunday, January 30, 2005
Random Thoughts On a Sunday Without Football
First of all, the best two teams are NOT in the Super Bowl!! They were in the AFC Championship game. The Patriots beat the Steelers, remember?
Yes, the Patriots are a dynasty if they win. But what are they if they lose? Ask the Packers that lost to the Broncos in SB32.
There are still people out there whining about the non-fumble Brady had (see Tuck Rule) against the Raiders. It really is time to get over it. The Raiders have won more games using questionable techniques than every other team combined. Weren't they the ones that fumbled forward, kicked the fumble to the end zone, and broke at least 6 other rules to beat the Chargers? Remember "StickUm"? It's Karma, deal with it!
I said the Patriots would win 38-20, and I'm sticking to it.
A few more weeks of this and Arena Football will be looking pretty good...
Yes, the Patriots are a dynasty if they win. But what are they if they lose? Ask the Packers that lost to the Broncos in SB32.
There are still people out there whining about the non-fumble Brady had (see Tuck Rule) against the Raiders. It really is time to get over it. The Raiders have won more games using questionable techniques than every other team combined. Weren't they the ones that fumbled forward, kicked the fumble to the end zone, and broke at least 6 other rules to beat the Chargers? Remember "StickUm"? It's Karma, deal with it!
I said the Patriots would win 38-20, and I'm sticking to it.
A few more weeks of this and Arena Football will be looking pretty good...
Friday, January 28, 2005
Things To Do During Super Bowl Week
One of the good things about the weeks before the Super Bowl is that ESPN replays all the Super Bowls past. It is a great way to escape the hype. Except for some of the blowout games, they are fun to watch.
For those of us that can actually remember most of the Super Bowls, it can bring back some good memories. And for some of us, Broncos and Vikings fans, there are some bad memories, too. At least the Vikings competed in a couple of their 4 losses.
To this day I still marvel at the catches Lynn Swann made. And that tipped, diving, floating on air catch he made against Dallas stands out as the greates reception in Super Bowl history. And, of course, Elway's magical dive and spin against the Packers that signaled the end of Bronco frustration is also a magical moment.
It's fun to watch 'em, I just hope to see one or two of those plays in this Super Bowl. The only time it is fun to watch a blowout in the Super Bowl is when you truly hate the team getting blown out. I thoroughly enjoyed watching the Tampa Bay Bucs stomp the crap out of the Raiders. I reveled in the agony and pain on the faces of the evil Raider players!
I don't think we will see a very close game next Sunday, but you never know. That's the great thing about football, anything can happen.
For those of us that can actually remember most of the Super Bowls, it can bring back some good memories. And for some of us, Broncos and Vikings fans, there are some bad memories, too. At least the Vikings competed in a couple of their 4 losses.
To this day I still marvel at the catches Lynn Swann made. And that tipped, diving, floating on air catch he made against Dallas stands out as the greates reception in Super Bowl history. And, of course, Elway's magical dive and spin against the Packers that signaled the end of Bronco frustration is also a magical moment.
It's fun to watch 'em, I just hope to see one or two of those plays in this Super Bowl. The only time it is fun to watch a blowout in the Super Bowl is when you truly hate the team getting blown out. I thoroughly enjoyed watching the Tampa Bay Bucs stomp the crap out of the Raiders. I reveled in the agony and pain on the faces of the evil Raider players!
I don't think we will see a very close game next Sunday, but you never know. That's the great thing about football, anything can happen.
Using Owens' Ankle to Their Benefit
Andy Reid and the Eagles are probably smart enough to have figured this out, even if a lot of media people haven't. Reid knows exactly how he is going to handle T.O.'s situation. He has to. It's his job to put the game plan in and to prepare for any possibilities.
The Eagles will have a plan for using Owens when he's in, and when he's out. They'll use him as a decoy if he can't make the hard cuts, and they'll throw somewhat 'safer' passes to him if he's healthy.
I have no doubt that Owens will play, but I think they will limit him. Don't look for Owens to run a lot of routes that require hard cuts or multiple cuts. I think they'll use him deep and on mid-length routes, and maybe some quick outs. Don't look for him in heavy traffic.
The Eagles will keep everyone guessing right up until game time, then he'll be introduced and play the first play. After that, they will limit him somewhat. Until then we get to listen to the incessant speculations of the media. And they will all sound the same. This will quickly become, if it hasn't already, the most overdone story of the Super Bowl.
The Eagles will have a plan for using Owens when he's in, and when he's out. They'll use him as a decoy if he can't make the hard cuts, and they'll throw somewhat 'safer' passes to him if he's healthy.
I have no doubt that Owens will play, but I think they will limit him. Don't look for Owens to run a lot of routes that require hard cuts or multiple cuts. I think they'll use him deep and on mid-length routes, and maybe some quick outs. Don't look for him in heavy traffic.
The Eagles will keep everyone guessing right up until game time, then he'll be introduced and play the first play. After that, they will limit him somewhat. Until then we get to listen to the incessant speculations of the media. And they will all sound the same. This will quickly become, if it hasn't already, the most overdone story of the Super Bowl.
Wednesday, January 26, 2005
Super Bowl Feast and Famine
A lot has been said this week about how long the Philadelphia Eagles have gone without an NFL Championship. Other cities have gone longer and several are still waiting. And a couple of long-term franchises have never been close.
25 current and former NFL cities have had a team in the Super Bowl, and 25 of the current franchises have made it. Only 12 teams have appeared in 3 or more Super Bowls and half that many have been in 5 or more.
A mere 5 teams are undefeated in Super Bowl games, but only the San Francisco 49ers are undefeated in multiple appearances. On the other side, 9 teams (including the Eagles) have gone winless in their SB appearances. Only 3 teams (Buffalo, Minnesota, and Cincy) have gone to multiple Super Bowls and come up empty.
So Philly has broken their drought. Here's how other cities are faring, by total Super Bowl appearances:
Super Bowl Feasting (4 Appearances): Dallas Cowboys (5-3), Denver (2-4), San Francisco (5-0), Pittsburgh (4-1), Washington (3-2), Green Bay (3-1), Oakland (2-2), Miami (2-2), New England (2-2), Minnesota (0-4), and Buffalo (0-4)
Super Bowl Snacks (Less Than 4 Appearances): NY Giants (2-1), Baltimore (Colts 1-1, Ravens 1-0), St Louis (1-1), Los Angeles (Rams 0-1, Raiders 1-0), Kansas City (1-1), Cincinnati (0-2), NY Jets (1-0), Chicago (1-0), Tampa Bay (1-0), Philly (0-1), San Diego (0-1), Atlanta (0-1), Tennessee (0-1), Carolina (0-1)
Super Bowl Famine (Current Franchise or City): Detroit, Seattle, Cardinals (in any city), New Orleans, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Houston (Oilers and Texans)
25 current and former NFL cities have had a team in the Super Bowl, and 25 of the current franchises have made it. Only 12 teams have appeared in 3 or more Super Bowls and half that many have been in 5 or more.
A mere 5 teams are undefeated in Super Bowl games, but only the San Francisco 49ers are undefeated in multiple appearances. On the other side, 9 teams (including the Eagles) have gone winless in their SB appearances. Only 3 teams (Buffalo, Minnesota, and Cincy) have gone to multiple Super Bowls and come up empty.
So Philly has broken their drought. Here's how other cities are faring, by total Super Bowl appearances:
Super Bowl Feasting (4 Appearances): Dallas Cowboys (5-3), Denver (2-4), San Francisco (5-0), Pittsburgh (4-1), Washington (3-2), Green Bay (3-1), Oakland (2-2), Miami (2-2), New England (2-2), Minnesota (0-4), and Buffalo (0-4)
Super Bowl Snacks (Less Than 4 Appearances): NY Giants (2-1), Baltimore (Colts 1-1, Ravens 1-0), St Louis (1-1), Los Angeles (Rams 0-1, Raiders 1-0), Kansas City (1-1), Cincinnati (0-2), NY Jets (1-0), Chicago (1-0), Tampa Bay (1-0), Philly (0-1), San Diego (0-1), Atlanta (0-1), Tennessee (0-1), Carolina (0-1)
Super Bowl Famine (Current Franchise or City): Detroit, Seattle, Cardinals (in any city), New Orleans, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Houston (Oilers and Texans)
Keys to Victory Don't Change
If you want to win in the postseason, you must run the ball successfully and play good defense. Again last week, this was the case.
Philadelphia out-rushed Atlanta by 57 yards. Defensively, they held the Falcons to 99 rush yards (well below their average), had 2 more sacks than Atlanta's defense, and were +1 in turnovers.
New England was out-rushed by Pittsburgh, but the Patriots had 126 yards rushing. That's about what you expect. Usually, when a team gets out-rushed by a lot, they lose. The exception is when a team dominates defensively and gets turnovers.
I wrote last week "The Patriots lost 2 games where they failed to get an interception. That is a big key for them. New England must win the turnover battle to win this game. They were minus-4 in that department in their first meeting." Quite a turnaround! This time New England got 3 interceptions and won big.
In the Super Bowl, the winner will be the team that runs the ball well and plays great defense. Philadelphia has a good defense, one of the best around. But the Patriots have the better defense. And that should be the difference. I just think the Patriots' linebackers and schemes will turn the tide eventually.
Philadelphia out-rushed Atlanta by 57 yards. Defensively, they held the Falcons to 99 rush yards (well below their average), had 2 more sacks than Atlanta's defense, and were +1 in turnovers.
New England was out-rushed by Pittsburgh, but the Patriots had 126 yards rushing. That's about what you expect. Usually, when a team gets out-rushed by a lot, they lose. The exception is when a team dominates defensively and gets turnovers.
I wrote last week "The Patriots lost 2 games where they failed to get an interception. That is a big key for them. New England must win the turnover battle to win this game. They were minus-4 in that department in their first meeting." Quite a turnaround! This time New England got 3 interceptions and won big.
In the Super Bowl, the winner will be the team that runs the ball well and plays great defense. Philadelphia has a good defense, one of the best around. But the Patriots have the better defense. And that should be the difference. I just think the Patriots' linebackers and schemes will turn the tide eventually.
Weis Will Bring Boom to Notre Dame Recruiting
The Notre Dame football program should get a big boost from having their next head coach, Charlie Weis, helping the Patriots to 3 Super Bowls in 4 years. What potential college player wouldn't want to play for a guy with 3 rings?
Weis is probably doing more for Notre Dame football in his last 3 weeks with the Patriots than he could have possibly done in South Bend. The Irish should be fun to watch the next few years.
Weis is probably doing more for Notre Dame football in his last 3 weeks with the Patriots than he could have possibly done in South Bend. The Irish should be fun to watch the next few years.
And The Hype Begins!
I love the Super Bowl, but I hate the hype! We now get almost 2 full weeks of T.O.'s ankle, Patriots' possible dynasty, which coach is more of a genius, and on and on and on.
We also get to hear about every player's most trivial background story and how, somehow, almost everything is cosmically linked. That this game was destined to be and these players were born to be part of this event.
I can't wait for Super Sunday!
We also get to hear about every player's most trivial background story and how, somehow, almost everything is cosmically linked. That this game was destined to be and these players were born to be part of this event.
I can't wait for Super Sunday!
Are the Chiefs Serious?
The Kansas City Chiefs signed Eric Crouch as a safety? And this move is going to bolster the defense? Apparently the rest of the AFC West has been put on notice; the Chiefs are serious about their defense! The Chiefs' defense has now gone from bad, to being a bad joke.
Tuesday, January 25, 2005
What the Eagles Are Facing
For those of you considering picking the Philadelphia Eagles to win the Super Bowl, consider this. In consecutive weeks the New England Patriots have held the "best" offense in football to 3 points, and then turned around and put 41 points on the "best" defense in the league.
Any team that can dominate their opponents' strength that way is going to win it all. The Eagles are good, but, as I've said before, Bill Belichick with two weeks to game plan is a scary thing.
Any team that can dominate their opponents' strength that way is going to win it all. The Eagles are good, but, as I've said before, Bill Belichick with two weeks to game plan is a scary thing.
Monday, January 24, 2005
Second-Guessing and What-Ifs for Cowher and Steelers
In the wake of the Pittsburgh Steelers loss to the New England Patriots, everyone will be second-guessing Cowher's decisions. The most critical decisions he made Sunday night, besides allowing Roethlisberger to throw so many passes, came late in the 3rd quarter with the Steelers at 1st-and-goal in side the Patriots' 5 yard line.
The first real questionable decision came on 2nd and goal, when Roethlisberger attempted a pass into the end zone. Before that play, you had to assume that, if given 3 or 4 attempts, Bettis and/or Staley could find their way into the end zone.
But the decision to kick the field goal was the real questionable call. Kicking the FG still left the Steelers down by two scores. Would it not make more sense to go for the TD on 4th down, hope your defense holds if you don't make it, and play with a short field? And if you actually scored, you are now down by only a single TD.
A few decisions will always by criticized, but those 4th quarter ones will really haunt the Steelers, who have a whole off-season to think of the what-ifs.
But, in the end, it probably doesn't matter what decisions were right or wrong. From the moment the Patriots intercepted that first pass, you got the feeling it was their night. Champions have a knack for making even the best teams look not so good.
The first real questionable decision came on 2nd and goal, when Roethlisberger attempted a pass into the end zone. Before that play, you had to assume that, if given 3 or 4 attempts, Bettis and/or Staley could find their way into the end zone.
But the decision to kick the field goal was the real questionable call. Kicking the FG still left the Steelers down by two scores. Would it not make more sense to go for the TD on 4th down, hope your defense holds if you don't make it, and play with a short field? And if you actually scored, you are now down by only a single TD.
A few decisions will always by criticized, but those 4th quarter ones will really haunt the Steelers, who have a whole off-season to think of the what-ifs.
But, in the end, it probably doesn't matter what decisions were right or wrong. From the moment the Patriots intercepted that first pass, you got the feeling it was their night. Champions have a knack for making even the best teams look not so good.
Sunday, January 23, 2005
Patriots Crush Steelers
Was this the biggest choke since the Yankees lost 4 straight or are the Patriots that good? I really believed the Steelers would dominate this game with the run, but Big Ben's 3 interceptions sealed their fate.
New England took control early and, except for a brief moment in the 3rd quarter, never let up. I am now (finally) convinced that Belichick is the best coach of this era and among the best ever.
Let me be one of the first; Patriots 38, Eagles 20.
New England took control early and, except for a brief moment in the 3rd quarter, never let up. I am now (finally) convinced that Belichick is the best coach of this era and among the best ever.
Let me be one of the first; Patriots 38, Eagles 20.
Could It Be?
I was ready to write the Steelers off a few times tonight. But they just keep coming!! End of 3rd quarter and they are 4 yards from making this a game again.
Eagles Finally Break Through
The Philadelphia Eagles finally made it. McNabb played a great game and the Eagles were able to run and control the clock to put it away.
The most impressive thing to me was how completely the Eagles stopped not only Vick, but the entire Atlanta Falcons running attack. Now we get to see T.O. in the Super Bowl, and he should be a show all by himself.
The most impressive thing to me was how completely the Eagles stopped not only Vick, but the entire Atlanta Falcons running attack. Now we get to see T.O. in the Super Bowl, and he should be a show all by himself.
Friday, January 21, 2005
AFC Championship: The Real Super Bowl
With all apologies to NFC teams and fans, the NFL Championship is going to be decided on the field in Pittsburgh. These are the two best teams in the league. You can argue if you want to, but you will be wrong. These teams had the 2nd (Pitt) and 4th(NE) highest strength-of-victory rankings in the league.
To win it all, a team must be able to run and play defense. The Steelers are 2nd in rushing and 1st in defense. The Patriots are 7th in rushing and 9th in defense. Pittsburgh and New England match up very well, and this game could be one of the best conference championship games ever. Pittsburgh has the edge in rushing and defense, but New England has the edge in coaching and special teams.
The Patriots lost 2 games where they failed to get an interception. That is a big key for them. New England must win the turnover battle to win this game. They were minus-4 in that department in their first meeting. They will also have to stop Staley and Bettis. The Steelers outrushed the Patriots in their first meeting 221-5!
The Patriots were able to pass against the Steelers in their first game, but they were playing from behind. They will have to be more balanced this time around. Corey Dillon needs to have a big game to keep the pressure off of Brady and the passing game.
For the Steelers, the formula is simple; run the ball. Pittsburgh must run and avoid 3rd-and-long situations. That is what the Patriots feed on. They must be patient and not force the passing game. Duce Staley is healthy and motivated, and Bettis has never been this fresh at the end of a season, so I expect Pittsburgh will come out running and not stop. I don't think anyone, including the Patriots, can stop their running game.
The Steelers defense is the best there is, and they should be motivated after listening all week to how great the Patriots' defense is. They will come out aggressive and keep pressure on Brady. And Dillon has never had a great game in Pittsburgh. The test for the Steelers will be handling all the different things Belichick throws at them. They must not let New England get a quick lead.
Special teams might play a big role here. It nearly cost the Steelers the game last week. Look for both teams to have something special for their special teams.
Belichick gets a lot of well-deserved credit for his game plans and how he uses his players and changes things up. But don't forget that Cowher usually puts in some special plays of his own. And he has a knack for being aggressive at the right times.
I know that most people are picking the Patriots to repeat. But I think that will only help to motivate Pittsburgh. The Steelers have the home field, the best defense, and the best running game. If Pittsburgh wins the turnover battle, they will win this game. The only way they lose is if Big Ben throws a couple of interceptions, and I think Cowher will do what he can to avoid obvious passing situations.
My pick is Pittsburgh, 24-10. But it will be close into the 4th quarter.
To win it all, a team must be able to run and play defense. The Steelers are 2nd in rushing and 1st in defense. The Patriots are 7th in rushing and 9th in defense. Pittsburgh and New England match up very well, and this game could be one of the best conference championship games ever. Pittsburgh has the edge in rushing and defense, but New England has the edge in coaching and special teams.
The Patriots lost 2 games where they failed to get an interception. That is a big key for them. New England must win the turnover battle to win this game. They were minus-4 in that department in their first meeting. They will also have to stop Staley and Bettis. The Steelers outrushed the Patriots in their first meeting 221-5!
The Patriots were able to pass against the Steelers in their first game, but they were playing from behind. They will have to be more balanced this time around. Corey Dillon needs to have a big game to keep the pressure off of Brady and the passing game.
For the Steelers, the formula is simple; run the ball. Pittsburgh must run and avoid 3rd-and-long situations. That is what the Patriots feed on. They must be patient and not force the passing game. Duce Staley is healthy and motivated, and Bettis has never been this fresh at the end of a season, so I expect Pittsburgh will come out running and not stop. I don't think anyone, including the Patriots, can stop their running game.
The Steelers defense is the best there is, and they should be motivated after listening all week to how great the Patriots' defense is. They will come out aggressive and keep pressure on Brady. And Dillon has never had a great game in Pittsburgh. The test for the Steelers will be handling all the different things Belichick throws at them. They must not let New England get a quick lead.
Special teams might play a big role here. It nearly cost the Steelers the game last week. Look for both teams to have something special for their special teams.
Belichick gets a lot of well-deserved credit for his game plans and how he uses his players and changes things up. But don't forget that Cowher usually puts in some special plays of his own. And he has a knack for being aggressive at the right times.
I know that most people are picking the Patriots to repeat. But I think that will only help to motivate Pittsburgh. The Steelers have the home field, the best defense, and the best running game. If Pittsburgh wins the turnover battle, they will win this game. The only way they lose is if Big Ben throws a couple of interceptions, and I think Cowher will do what he can to avoid obvious passing situations.
My pick is Pittsburgh, 24-10. But it will be close into the 4th quarter.
NFC Championship: Falcons at Eagles
This might be going against conventional wisdom, and common sense, but I believe a snowy game would benefit the Atlanta Falcons. Snow will take away a big part of the passing game, and that means running suddenly becomes a bigger part of the game. Atlanta already has an edge in the running game, if the weather forces more running, that edge becomes bigger.
Michael Westbrook is the primary runner for the Eagles, but he is a threat because of his pass-catching abilities. He is a good runner, but not a dominant one. The Falcons, though, have 3 running threats. Warrick Dunn is the fast, slashing breakaway runner. TJ Duckett brings the power. And Michael Vick is a threat that must be dealt with on every play.
Donovan McNabb is mobile, but he is not the threat Vick is. Without Terrell Owens, the Eagles lose the deep threat in this game, and the Falcons can concentrate more on containing McNabb and the Eagles runners. Please don't talk about how the Eagles passed all over the Vikings, scored against Minnesota, blah, blah, blah... The Falcons are not the Vikings! The Vikings generated NO pass rush all day, the Falcons bring a great pass rush and a better run defense.
The Eagles defense is what will determine the winner in this game. They must slow the Falcons' runners and contain Vick. When Vick does try to pass, they must get pressure on him. In all 5 Falcons losses, Vick was sacked at least 3 times. Philadelphia definitely has the defense to win this game. They must stop the run first.
I believe there are two things to watch in this game. If the Falcons can get a combined 150 rushing yards, they should win. If the Eagles can throw the ball and get Westbrook involved and get him over 100 total yards, they should win.
I think this game will either be a big Eagles win, or a very close Falcons win. I am going with a close Falcons win, 24-20. Don't be surprised if a big special teams play decides this game.
Michael Westbrook is the primary runner for the Eagles, but he is a threat because of his pass-catching abilities. He is a good runner, but not a dominant one. The Falcons, though, have 3 running threats. Warrick Dunn is the fast, slashing breakaway runner. TJ Duckett brings the power. And Michael Vick is a threat that must be dealt with on every play.
Donovan McNabb is mobile, but he is not the threat Vick is. Without Terrell Owens, the Eagles lose the deep threat in this game, and the Falcons can concentrate more on containing McNabb and the Eagles runners. Please don't talk about how the Eagles passed all over the Vikings, scored against Minnesota, blah, blah, blah... The Falcons are not the Vikings! The Vikings generated NO pass rush all day, the Falcons bring a great pass rush and a better run defense.
The Eagles defense is what will determine the winner in this game. They must slow the Falcons' runners and contain Vick. When Vick does try to pass, they must get pressure on him. In all 5 Falcons losses, Vick was sacked at least 3 times. Philadelphia definitely has the defense to win this game. They must stop the run first.
I believe there are two things to watch in this game. If the Falcons can get a combined 150 rushing yards, they should win. If the Eagles can throw the ball and get Westbrook involved and get him over 100 total yards, they should win.
I think this game will either be a big Eagles win, or a very close Falcons win. I am going with a close Falcons win, 24-20. Don't be surprised if a big special teams play decides this game.
Thursday, January 20, 2005
McCombs Destroying Vikings Heading Into Sale
It is now obvious. I poster earlier today that the Vikings needed to replace their offensive coordinator with someone outside the organization. And others have said that they need to start spending money to improve. But Red McCombs, the cheapest man in sports and possibly on the entire planet, is trying to sell the Vikings. And he wants every possible extra penny to fall into his pocket.
We should have been suspicious last year when he didn't fire Mike Tice. It became quite obvious that he was going to operate on the cheap when he picked up Tice's option after a second consecutive hideous meltdown punctuated by fraidy-cat play-calling and insane game-day decisions.
Scott Linehan leaped out of town yesterday, and before any of us could arrogantly tell Tice what to do, he and McCombs promoted another un-qualified assistant because Red doesn't want to spend any of his money on a real football coach.
This season Red McCombs knew he would be selling the team, so he has done everything in his power to make the Vikings appear stable, but he has been destroying this team.
Hopefully, a sale will come quickly. It can't possibly come quick enough for Vikings fans. We are probably looking at one last season of Mike Tice coaching, which means more average football, more disappointment, and one more year of "Maybe next year."
The coaching situation in Minnesota has become a joke. There are head coaches in college making more than the Vikings' coaching staff. And, as we all know, you get what you pay for.
We should have been suspicious last year when he didn't fire Mike Tice. It became quite obvious that he was going to operate on the cheap when he picked up Tice's option after a second consecutive hideous meltdown punctuated by fraidy-cat play-calling and insane game-day decisions.
Scott Linehan leaped out of town yesterday, and before any of us could arrogantly tell Tice what to do, he and McCombs promoted another un-qualified assistant because Red doesn't want to spend any of his money on a real football coach.
This season Red McCombs knew he would be selling the team, so he has done everything in his power to make the Vikings appear stable, but he has been destroying this team.
Hopefully, a sale will come quickly. It can't possibly come quick enough for Vikings fans. We are probably looking at one last season of Mike Tice coaching, which means more average football, more disappointment, and one more year of "Maybe next year."
The coaching situation in Minnesota has become a joke. There are head coaches in college making more than the Vikings' coaching staff. And, as we all know, you get what you pay for.
Droughns Exploring Options
Rueben Droughns has been given permission to seek a trade by the Denver Broncos. He is a great back that deserves a starting roll at tailback. Unfortunately, there are a few of those guys in Denver. Tatum Bell is the man of the future and Mike Anderson and Quentin Griffin are also a big part of the plan.
Droughns' value to the Broncos right now is through a trade. No rumors are being mentioned yet, but the Raiders and Dolphins would probably top the list of people who want him. I wonder who Shanahan would rather deal with. The Broncos want high and mid-round draft picks.
Droughns' value to the Broncos right now is through a trade. No rumors are being mentioned yet, but the Raiders and Dolphins would probably top the list of people who want him. I wonder who Shanahan would rather deal with. The Broncos want high and mid-round draft picks.
Jets Get Better With Heimerdinger
It looks like the Jets improved their offense when Hackett fell on his sword and resigned. Herm Edwards quickly signed Mike Heimerdinger from the Titans. What is surprising in this article is the refernce to Hackett's offense being a West Coast offense. It sure didn't look like one the last two years.
Linehan Move is Tice's Big Opportunity
Scott Linehan, offensive coordinator of the Minnesota Vikings is taking the same position in Miami. He saw the writing on the wall. The Vikings are for sale, head coach Mike Tice is on the hot seat, and the offensive production for the Vikes is in decline. He took the job security in Miami. And nobody in Minnesota will really care that Linehan is gone.
Mike Tice now has the opportunity to make a lot of things right for the Vikings that have been wrong. He should take a look at the most successful teams in the league right now and duplicate what their offenses are doing. The answer? Run the football!! The Steelers, Patriots, and Falcons are all top 5 rushing teams and are in the Championship games this weekend. Pass-happy teams like the Colts, Chiefs, Rams, and his own Vikings, will be home watching on TV.
Minnesota has the personnel to convert to a power running game right now. Michael Bennett, Onterrio Smith, Moe Williams, a mobile QB in Culpepper, and a big offensive line are the ingredients to power running and clock control. The Vikings averaged about 4.5 yards per rush! Their problem was that they abandoned the run this year.
Tice should NOT promote from within. He does not need more of the same. He needs to make a bold move and hire a run-first offensive coordinator with a 'ram it down their throats' mentality. Bring in one of the assistants from Pittsburgh or New England, they know how to run and they know that running is the key to winning in December and January and (most important) February.
The person Tice hires should also be very aggressive. Someone who will go for it on 4th-and-short at midfield or on the opponents' side of the 50. You will rarely see Bill Belichick punt on 4th-and-short at the opponent's 40 yard line.
Rumors are flying that Randy Moss will be traded. If that is the case, the Vikings will be forced to run more. If he is traded, he should bring a top-flight defender and two top draft picks. But keeping him makes more sense. Being run-committed doesn't mean abandoning the pass. And Moss' presence would definitely make the running game better.
In short, Tice needs a run-committed, aggressive offensive coordinator who also knows when and how to use the pass. As Mr. Miyagi always said, "Must have balance!" The people are in place offensively, they just need someone to release the hounds.
And Tice should then put his complete focus on building the defense. It was, again, among the worst in the league.
Mike Tice now has the opportunity to make a lot of things right for the Vikings that have been wrong. He should take a look at the most successful teams in the league right now and duplicate what their offenses are doing. The answer? Run the football!! The Steelers, Patriots, and Falcons are all top 5 rushing teams and are in the Championship games this weekend. Pass-happy teams like the Colts, Chiefs, Rams, and his own Vikings, will be home watching on TV.
Minnesota has the personnel to convert to a power running game right now. Michael Bennett, Onterrio Smith, Moe Williams, a mobile QB in Culpepper, and a big offensive line are the ingredients to power running and clock control. The Vikings averaged about 4.5 yards per rush! Their problem was that they abandoned the run this year.
Tice should NOT promote from within. He does not need more of the same. He needs to make a bold move and hire a run-first offensive coordinator with a 'ram it down their throats' mentality. Bring in one of the assistants from Pittsburgh or New England, they know how to run and they know that running is the key to winning in December and January and (most important) February.
The person Tice hires should also be very aggressive. Someone who will go for it on 4th-and-short at midfield or on the opponents' side of the 50. You will rarely see Bill Belichick punt on 4th-and-short at the opponent's 40 yard line.
Rumors are flying that Randy Moss will be traded. If that is the case, the Vikings will be forced to run more. If he is traded, he should bring a top-flight defender and two top draft picks. But keeping him makes more sense. Being run-committed doesn't mean abandoning the pass. And Moss' presence would definitely make the running game better.
In short, Tice needs a run-committed, aggressive offensive coordinator who also knows when and how to use the pass. As Mr. Miyagi always said, "Must have balance!" The people are in place offensively, they just need someone to release the hounds.
And Tice should then put his complete focus on building the defense. It was, again, among the worst in the league.
Wednesday, January 19, 2005
The Weekly Bandwagon
Last week it was the Manning/Colts bandwagon and the Michael Vick bandwagon and the ‘Andy Reid is smarter than us’ bandwagon. Manning and the Colts were mauled. Michael Vick lived up to the hype, but against a pathetic run defense. And Andy Reid proved nothing more than that his team can beat an average team after resting for 4 weeks. If the Eagles had played a better team, they would probably have lost.
This week, the repentant media have, after going over the cliff with Manning, jumped en masse onto the Belichick/Patriots bandwagon and the McNabb is a better passer bandwagon. Hmmm…
Last week all the attention went to the Colts and how they would pick apart the depleted Patriots’ secondary. Manning was just too good. The Patriots responded with a 20-3 thumping of the Colts.
Now we are hearing how the Patriots' brilliant coaching staff and the presence of Corey Dillon, who missed the first game, will lead to a Patriot victory this week. I agree that Belichick and Co. are the best coaching staff in the league and Dillon makes the Pats better in this game. But, why are so few people overlooking the obvious. Pittsburgh has the best defense in the league. Period. They didn’t allow an offensive TD last week, either.
Belichick has a plan for Roethlisberger, he has a plan for running the ball better, he mixes things up. I agree. But don’t you think Bill Cowher and Co. know that, too? Do you think Cowher is sitting around deciding whether or not to re-carpet his office? Cowher beat the Eagles and Patriots this year, in consecutive weeks.
This will be a great game. But it is not the lock for New England that so many think it is.
As far as McNabb being a better passer, so what? Vick is a better runner. The Eagles stopped Culpepper? So what? The Vikings’ coaching staff did as much to stop Culpepper’s success as the Eagles did. And Culpepper is NOT a running QB. Vick is.
Atlanta’s defense is not Minnesota. The Falcons actually get pressure on the QB. That will negate some of McNabb’s passing advantage. Getting pressure on Vick only makes him run more, which may be a benefit to the Falcons.
I am not saying who will win or lose, yet. But it is foolish to jump on all these bandwagons every week. One performance does not indicate how a team will fare the next week. After watching the Vikings dismantle the Packers, many people hedged their bets on the Eagles last week. And the Vikings didn’t look anything like the week before.
And next week we will have some new bandwagons to jump on, no matter who wins on Sunday.
This week, the repentant media have, after going over the cliff with Manning, jumped en masse onto the Belichick/Patriots bandwagon and the McNabb is a better passer bandwagon. Hmmm…
Last week all the attention went to the Colts and how they would pick apart the depleted Patriots’ secondary. Manning was just too good. The Patriots responded with a 20-3 thumping of the Colts.
Now we are hearing how the Patriots' brilliant coaching staff and the presence of Corey Dillon, who missed the first game, will lead to a Patriot victory this week. I agree that Belichick and Co. are the best coaching staff in the league and Dillon makes the Pats better in this game. But, why are so few people overlooking the obvious. Pittsburgh has the best defense in the league. Period. They didn’t allow an offensive TD last week, either.
Belichick has a plan for Roethlisberger, he has a plan for running the ball better, he mixes things up. I agree. But don’t you think Bill Cowher and Co. know that, too? Do you think Cowher is sitting around deciding whether or not to re-carpet his office? Cowher beat the Eagles and Patriots this year, in consecutive weeks.
This will be a great game. But it is not the lock for New England that so many think it is.
As far as McNabb being a better passer, so what? Vick is a better runner. The Eagles stopped Culpepper? So what? The Vikings’ coaching staff did as much to stop Culpepper’s success as the Eagles did. And Culpepper is NOT a running QB. Vick is.
Atlanta’s defense is not Minnesota. The Falcons actually get pressure on the QB. That will negate some of McNabb’s passing advantage. Getting pressure on Vick only makes him run more, which may be a benefit to the Falcons.
I am not saying who will win or lose, yet. But it is foolish to jump on all these bandwagons every week. One performance does not indicate how a team will fare the next week. After watching the Vikings dismantle the Packers, many people hedged their bets on the Eagles last week. And the Vikings didn’t look anything like the week before.
And next week we will have some new bandwagons to jump on, no matter who wins on Sunday.
Tuesday, January 18, 2005
Manning Won’t Win Until Colts Change
In a previous article I wrote about the Colts’ situation. Now that they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs again, everybody wants to blame Peyton Manning. But Manning is not the problem in Indianapolis. In fact, it is the Colts’ management that is holding Peyton back.
If you want to score a lot of points, put people in the stands, win 10-11 games a year, and make the playoffs annually, the Colts have the right formula. If you want to win playoff games and go to the Super Bowl, the Colts have it all wrong. And it is management that has built this team, and it is Manning who will continue to lose playoff games with it.
If you look at the final 4 teams in the playoffs now you see 3 teams with a defensive ranking in the top 10 and another (Atlanta) in the top 15. Indy’s defense is 29th. In team rushing stats, 3 teams are in the top 10 and only one team (Philly) has fewer rushing yards than Indy.
The formula for winning in the playoffs and Super Bowl is rushing and defense. The Colts do not excel at either, and won’t for the foreseeable future. Indianapolis has locked up its best receivers and QB for the next 4-6 years and will probably lock up Edgerrin James soon. That leaves very little cap room to improve the 4th worst defense in the NFL.
Finally, consider that the power in the AFC for the foreseeable future is firmly lodged in New England, Pittsburgh, and New York. And some of the up-and-comers are Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Buffalo. That’s a lot of potential frozen fields to overcome in December and January every year. Not to mention Denver and Kansas City. If the Colts don’t go 15-1 or 14-2, they will have to win on one or more of those fields every year. Their defense can’t do it, and their receivers can’t do it.
Peyton Manning will continue to compile great stats, passing records, and regular season wins. But he will never get to or win the Super Bowl as long as the makeup of this team stays the way it is. For Manning to win a Super Bowl, the Colts will have to change, and the change will have to be philosophical.
If you want to score a lot of points, put people in the stands, win 10-11 games a year, and make the playoffs annually, the Colts have the right formula. If you want to win playoff games and go to the Super Bowl, the Colts have it all wrong. And it is management that has built this team, and it is Manning who will continue to lose playoff games with it.
If you look at the final 4 teams in the playoffs now you see 3 teams with a defensive ranking in the top 10 and another (Atlanta) in the top 15. Indy’s defense is 29th. In team rushing stats, 3 teams are in the top 10 and only one team (Philly) has fewer rushing yards than Indy.
The formula for winning in the playoffs and Super Bowl is rushing and defense. The Colts do not excel at either, and won’t for the foreseeable future. Indianapolis has locked up its best receivers and QB for the next 4-6 years and will probably lock up Edgerrin James soon. That leaves very little cap room to improve the 4th worst defense in the NFL.
Finally, consider that the power in the AFC for the foreseeable future is firmly lodged in New England, Pittsburgh, and New York. And some of the up-and-comers are Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Buffalo. That’s a lot of potential frozen fields to overcome in December and January every year. Not to mention Denver and Kansas City. If the Colts don’t go 15-1 or 14-2, they will have to win on one or more of those fields every year. Their defense can’t do it, and their receivers can’t do it.
Peyton Manning will continue to compile great stats, passing records, and regular season wins. But he will never get to or win the Super Bowl as long as the makeup of this team stays the way it is. For Manning to win a Super Bowl, the Colts will have to change, and the change will have to be philosophical.
Monday, January 17, 2005
Random Thoughts on Divisional Playoffs
Dome teams on the road went 0-2. Only 1 dome team left.
The teams that out-rushed their opponents went 4-0. Hey, Pat Kirwan, still believe the trend toward passing in the playoffs?
It’s bad enough that CBS gives so much of its “news” time to advertise books, movies, etc for its sister companies. Now they want to start with the pre-game show, too? How long till their contract runs out? Booooooo, CBS!
Are the Falcons that good? Or does the Rams’ run defense suck that much?!?
Herm Edwards sacrificed 2 yards of field position to run 2 seconds off the clock at the end of the game AFTER his kicker doinked one off the crossbar on the previous drive. What the hell was he thinking? Don’t tempt the football gods!!
The Eagles surrendered 385 yards to the Vikings, who have no clue about running to set up the pass or how to increase their pass production by rolling out the QB. How many yards will the Falcons get?
Every pre-game show and football web site in the last month has asked its experts to say which QB they want running their teams in the playoffs. Most of them said Manning. But it’s Brady with 2 rings who’s on his way to his 3rd AFC championship in 4 years. And it was Brady who sent Manning home the last 2 seasons. Care to change your vote guys?
How many times have the top 2 seeds from both conferences made it to the championship game in the same year? I can’t remember that happening, but that doesn’t mean anything.
Tony Dungy has to be wondering what he did to deserve this. In Tampa he had a Super Bowl defense and no offense, now it’s a Super offense and no defense. One thing in common: neither one could win in the snow or cold.
Do you think Bill Cowher is having nightmares about losing 10-7 on a last minute punt return? He should be.
The teams that out-rushed their opponents went 4-0. Hey, Pat Kirwan, still believe the trend toward passing in the playoffs?
It’s bad enough that CBS gives so much of its “news” time to advertise books, movies, etc for its sister companies. Now they want to start with the pre-game show, too? How long till their contract runs out? Booooooo, CBS!
Are the Falcons that good? Or does the Rams’ run defense suck that much?!?
Herm Edwards sacrificed 2 yards of field position to run 2 seconds off the clock at the end of the game AFTER his kicker doinked one off the crossbar on the previous drive. What the hell was he thinking? Don’t tempt the football gods!!
The Eagles surrendered 385 yards to the Vikings, who have no clue about running to set up the pass or how to increase their pass production by rolling out the QB. How many yards will the Falcons get?
Every pre-game show and football web site in the last month has asked its experts to say which QB they want running their teams in the playoffs. Most of them said Manning. But it’s Brady with 2 rings who’s on his way to his 3rd AFC championship in 4 years. And it was Brady who sent Manning home the last 2 seasons. Care to change your vote guys?
How many times have the top 2 seeds from both conferences made it to the championship game in the same year? I can’t remember that happening, but that doesn’t mean anything.
Tony Dungy has to be wondering what he did to deserve this. In Tampa he had a Super Bowl defense and no offense, now it’s a Super offense and no defense. One thing in common: neither one could win in the snow or cold.
Do you think Bill Cowher is having nightmares about losing 10-7 on a last minute punt return? He should be.
Patriots Dominate Colts Again, and Again....
Get used to it Indy! The Colts built a dome team that excels inside on a fast track. It's just too bad that most of the playoff teams in the AFC play outdoors on frozen, snowy fields. The Colts will have more of these days over the years.
The Patriots' depleted defense did what they had to do; get pressure on Manning quickly, and control the clock. In fact they didn't just control the clock, they dominated it.
New England's defense got to Manning quickly and their linebackers really came up big. And Troy Brown play his best all-around game of the year. They only sacked Manning once, but they hurried him all day and moved him out of the pocket, where he is never effective. They also played the receivers tight and aggressive and kept the pressure on them. The Colts dropped at least 5 passes they should have caught.
Offensively, the Patriots did exactly what has to be done to beat the Colts. Take notes, Shanahan. New England went on long, time-consuming scoring drives using a good mix of running and passing. That's all there is to it. They had the ball for over 37 minutes! Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk pounded the Colts defense relentlessly.
I said it before, Bill Belichick with 2 weeks to game plan is scary. Now he gets another shot at Pittsburgh, and that game will be a great one to watch. It is the matchup that every old-school football fan wants to see. Punishing runners, great defenses, excellent coaches; what more could you want?
Finally, a note to the Colts. If you ever want to go to the Super Bowl, you must clinch the #1 seed in the AFC. You don't have a team that can beat a good team outdoors in January.
The Patriots' depleted defense did what they had to do; get pressure on Manning quickly, and control the clock. In fact they didn't just control the clock, they dominated it.
New England's defense got to Manning quickly and their linebackers really came up big. And Troy Brown play his best all-around game of the year. They only sacked Manning once, but they hurried him all day and moved him out of the pocket, where he is never effective. They also played the receivers tight and aggressive and kept the pressure on them. The Colts dropped at least 5 passes they should have caught.
Offensively, the Patriots did exactly what has to be done to beat the Colts. Take notes, Shanahan. New England went on long, time-consuming scoring drives using a good mix of running and passing. That's all there is to it. They had the ball for over 37 minutes! Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk pounded the Colts defense relentlessly.
I said it before, Bill Belichick with 2 weeks to game plan is scary. Now he gets another shot at Pittsburgh, and that game will be a great one to watch. It is the matchup that every old-school football fan wants to see. Punishing runners, great defenses, excellent coaches; what more could you want?
Finally, a note to the Colts. If you ever want to go to the Super Bowl, you must clinch the #1 seed in the AFC. You don't have a team that can beat a good team outdoors in January.
Vikings Give One Away
When you look at the score, you get the impression the Vikings were routed by the Eagles. This game was much closer than that. The Vikings just committed too many errors to win this one.
The Eagles rushed Daunte Culpepper and forced him into a few errors, the Vikes' defense committed 3 big pass-interference or defensive holding penalties that helped Philly continue drives for 17 points, and the Vikings' botched a fake FG. Add it all up, and Minnesota lost this one more than Philadelphia won it.
The Eagles came out very strong defensively, and kept up the pressure all day. They came up with two big interceptions, a couple of sacks, and nearly came up with a couple of fumbles. It was definitely the defense that carried the Eagles.
This Vikings did play well offensively. They averaged 4.6 yards per rush, and that after losing yards on their first series. But, as usual, they didn't capitalize on their running game. The defense was just plain bad. After a stellar game at Green Bay, Minnesota reverted to form and failed to get a rush on McNabb all day. They also failed to control Westbrook, who made a lot of key plays.
The bottom line is the Vikings commited 7 penalties, 2 int's, and the botched FG. You can't give away points to a team like the Eagles and have any hope of winning. A lot was said of Andy Reid's resting players and how smart he was to do it. But it was the Vikings' coaching staff that failed to prepare their team for this game.
The Vikings were out-rushed, out-defensed, out-played, and definitely out-coached.
The Eagles rushed Daunte Culpepper and forced him into a few errors, the Vikes' defense committed 3 big pass-interference or defensive holding penalties that helped Philly continue drives for 17 points, and the Vikings' botched a fake FG. Add it all up, and Minnesota lost this one more than Philadelphia won it.
The Eagles came out very strong defensively, and kept up the pressure all day. They came up with two big interceptions, a couple of sacks, and nearly came up with a couple of fumbles. It was definitely the defense that carried the Eagles.
This Vikings did play well offensively. They averaged 4.6 yards per rush, and that after losing yards on their first series. But, as usual, they didn't capitalize on their running game. The defense was just plain bad. After a stellar game at Green Bay, Minnesota reverted to form and failed to get a rush on McNabb all day. They also failed to control Westbrook, who made a lot of key plays.
The bottom line is the Vikings commited 7 penalties, 2 int's, and the botched FG. You can't give away points to a team like the Eagles and have any hope of winning. A lot was said of Andy Reid's resting players and how smart he was to do it. But it was the Vikings' coaching staff that failed to prepare their team for this game.
The Vikings were out-rushed, out-defensed, out-played, and definitely out-coached.
Sunday, January 16, 2005
Irvin Wouldn't Want Moss on Team
Michael Irvin says he wouldn't want Randy Moss as a teammate. He said this on ESPN's pregame show. If this isn't the textbook example of hypocrisy, I don't know what is.
Let's review: Irvin was a showboat of epic proportions. He was linked to a house that was purchased for the explicit purpose of partying, using drugs, and "entertaining" lady folk. He was a major distraction to his team so many times that we all lost count.
And Michael Irvin has the gall to say he wouldn't have Moss as a teammate?!?!? You wouldn't want someone like you on your team, Mike?
I won't defend Randy Moss, but some of his critics need to take a long, meaningful look in the mirror. Irvin has been linked to all sorts of criminal activity before becoming a born-again Christian (which I applaud). Joe Buck works for the network that epitomizes bad taste and is making a buttload of money from a series of commercials where he portrays a rather vain (and very realistic) sportscaster giving media attention to a Moss-like character. A beer commercial, no less, Mr Social Conscience!!
Glass houses, Michael and Joe. Glass houses!
Let's review: Irvin was a showboat of epic proportions. He was linked to a house that was purchased for the explicit purpose of partying, using drugs, and "entertaining" lady folk. He was a major distraction to his team so many times that we all lost count.
And Michael Irvin has the gall to say he wouldn't have Moss as a teammate?!?!? You wouldn't want someone like you on your team, Mike?
I won't defend Randy Moss, but some of his critics need to take a long, meaningful look in the mirror. Irvin has been linked to all sorts of criminal activity before becoming a born-again Christian (which I applaud). Joe Buck works for the network that epitomizes bad taste and is making a buttload of money from a series of commercials where he portrays a rather vain (and very realistic) sportscaster giving media attention to a Moss-like character. A beer commercial, no less, Mr Social Conscience!!
Glass houses, Michael and Joe. Glass houses!
Falcons Dominate Rams
I really thought this would be a close game. The Rams were coming off of a big win at Seattle after beating the Jets, and seemed to be getting things on track. But Atlanta seems to have their number.
St Louis' defense was incapable of stopping the Falcons' running game and Jim Mora had a perfect game plan. 327 yards rushing!?!?! Even when the Rams stacked the line to stop the run, they couldn't slow Atlanta down. Atlanta just abused the Rams' defense.
I was really surprised by the Falcons' defense. I have only watched a couple of Falcons games this year and did not see how good they can be. Kerney is an animal!
The Rams were out of this game by halftime and were demoralized by the end of the 3rd quarter. Atlanta completely dominated and never let the Rams even take a breath. It was a thrashing.
I speculated earlier this week that Atlanta was not getting much attention and could be a big surprise. I am now a believer. I think we saw the NFC Champions in this game! To win the Super Bowl you must be able to run, play defense, and have good special teams. The Falcons showed all 3, something Pittsburgh failed to do earlier when they let a punt return almost beat them.
St Louis' defense was incapable of stopping the Falcons' running game and Jim Mora had a perfect game plan. 327 yards rushing!?!?! Even when the Rams stacked the line to stop the run, they couldn't slow Atlanta down. Atlanta just abused the Rams' defense.
I was really surprised by the Falcons' defense. I have only watched a couple of Falcons games this year and did not see how good they can be. Kerney is an animal!
The Rams were out of this game by halftime and were demoralized by the end of the 3rd quarter. Atlanta completely dominated and never let the Rams even take a breath. It was a thrashing.
I speculated earlier this week that Atlanta was not getting much attention and could be a big surprise. I am now a believer. I think we saw the NFC Champions in this game! To win the Super Bowl you must be able to run, play defense, and have good special teams. The Falcons showed all 3, something Pittsburgh failed to do earlier when they let a punt return almost beat them.
Steelers Survive, Ben Looks Rookie-ish
It went as expected for a while. The Steelers were running and playing defense and seemed to be in control. The 2nd quarter was not a good one for Pittsburgh as the Jets scored a field goal and then got a big punt return for a TD to tie the game. The Steelers seemed a little flustered by that and it took a while to get it back.
Ben Roethlisberger played a decent game, but he made two huge mistakes. One was returned for a TD and the other nearly resulted in the game-winning FG for the Jets. He looked like a rookie for one of the few times this year.
One thing was obvious all day, the Steelers dominated with their defense and running game. The Jets' offense did not score a TD. Pittsburgh had more rushing yards, more passing yards, 7 more minutes' time of possession, and converted more than 50% of their 3rd-down conversions. They also were -2 in takeaways and were dominated in special teams, and because of that, they found themselves tied 17-17 late in the 4th. Bettis' fumble was at the Jets' 24 yard line.
The Jets were outplayed most of the game, but found themselves in position to win at the end. And now we all have to ask, how do you miss two field goals at the end of the game? This is a reliable kicker, what happened? The first one you understand, but the second almost seemed like voodoo!
But is was more like Karma. The Jets advanced to this game because Nate Kaeding missed a make-able FG the week before. But the Chargers should not have been tied, the game should have ended in regulation, but Eric Barton did something stupid and the Chargers were given new life. The Jets outplayed San Diego and deserved to win, and in the end they did.
Likewise, the Steelers outplayed the Jets and deserved to win. Sorry New York, but if you can't score an offensive TD, you don't deserve to win. And if you can't hit a game-winning FG (with 2 damn chances!) at the end of regulation, you don't deserve to win. Pittsburgh dominated this game and is the best team in the league. If they are playing well, nobody can beat. And now we know that even if they make mistakes, it is difficult to beat them. And we know one other thing, the football gods favor the team that has played the best! At least in the playoffs.
Call it luck, voodoo, karma, fate, or whatever, the Steelers dominated this game except for 3 plays; a punt return for a TD, an interception for a TD, and a Bettis fumble in the red-zone. Change those 3 plays and the Steelers win 27-3, or even bigger. The game should not have come down to those kicks or gone to OT, and Bill Cowher knows it. He won't let that happen again.
Ben Roethlisberger played a decent game, but he made two huge mistakes. One was returned for a TD and the other nearly resulted in the game-winning FG for the Jets. He looked like a rookie for one of the few times this year.
One thing was obvious all day, the Steelers dominated with their defense and running game. The Jets' offense did not score a TD. Pittsburgh had more rushing yards, more passing yards, 7 more minutes' time of possession, and converted more than 50% of their 3rd-down conversions. They also were -2 in takeaways and were dominated in special teams, and because of that, they found themselves tied 17-17 late in the 4th. Bettis' fumble was at the Jets' 24 yard line.
The Jets were outplayed most of the game, but found themselves in position to win at the end. And now we all have to ask, how do you miss two field goals at the end of the game? This is a reliable kicker, what happened? The first one you understand, but the second almost seemed like voodoo!
But is was more like Karma. The Jets advanced to this game because Nate Kaeding missed a make-able FG the week before. But the Chargers should not have been tied, the game should have ended in regulation, but Eric Barton did something stupid and the Chargers were given new life. The Jets outplayed San Diego and deserved to win, and in the end they did.
Likewise, the Steelers outplayed the Jets and deserved to win. Sorry New York, but if you can't score an offensive TD, you don't deserve to win. And if you can't hit a game-winning FG (with 2 damn chances!) at the end of regulation, you don't deserve to win. Pittsburgh dominated this game and is the best team in the league. If they are playing well, nobody can beat. And now we know that even if they make mistakes, it is difficult to beat them. And we know one other thing, the football gods favor the team that has played the best! At least in the playoffs.
Call it luck, voodoo, karma, fate, or whatever, the Steelers dominated this game except for 3 plays; a punt return for a TD, an interception for a TD, and a Bettis fumble in the red-zone. Change those 3 plays and the Steelers win 27-3, or even bigger. The game should not have come down to those kicks or gone to OT, and Bill Cowher knows it. He won't let that happen again.
Friday, January 14, 2005
Divisional Playoffs: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
On paper, this looks like an Eagles win. If this were week 12 or 14, I would say the Eagles win in a blowout. But there are so many questions about the Eagles now and the Vikings showed a spark of life, and some real coaching, last week.
The Eagles haven't played a meaningful game in a month. If Terrell Owens were playing that would probably not be a big factor. But McNabb has only played a few series without T.O., and his confidence level in his receivers is probably non-existent. Westbrook is healthy and can do some damage, but the long threat is gone. The Eagles are going to have to change to a bit of a dink and dunk team with Westbrook and LJ Smith. The Vikings are soft against the run, but the Eagles are not exactly a great running team, especially without the long threat. McNabb will have to use Westbrook out of the backfield and he must be quick to use his feet.
The Eagles defense will be the difference in this game. They will blitz hard and try to put a lot of pressure on Culpepper. If they succeed, they should be able to contain the Vikings and keep the game low scoring. The Eagles must also stop the Vikings running attack. Usually the Vikings abandon the run early, so if the Eagles can stop it early they can force the Vikings to be one dimensional.
The Eagles must be very relieved they are not playing the Rams. I believe the Rams would have beaten them. But the Vikings are different and can be stopped by this defense.
The Vikings started fast last week and it carried through the whole game. It would really help them to do it again. Scoring on their first two drives against the Eagles could put them on the ropes. The problem with the Vikings is they tend to force the passing game and not give the running game a chance. Even with a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter last week, the Vikings went 3-and-out trying to pass the ball. The Vikings will use the passing game and be successful if Moss is healthy. But they must be able to run the ball late, and that is a big question mark.
Minnesota's defense didn't just surprise last week, they returned from the dead! Where was that team all year? If that defense shows up again, the Eagles are dead. They put pressure on Favre, they made good tackles, and played good pass defense. It was by far the best performance of the season. They must do all those things again. If they can pressure McNabb into a couple of mistakes and give the offense good field position, this game could be over quickly.
For Minnesota to win, they must be able to run and put some long drives together. If Moss isn't healthy, the Vikes chances diminish drastically. This coaching staff simply can't adjust to life without Moss. If they put up 24 points and play decent defense, they will win.
For the Eagles it is simple, stop Moss and you win. If they put pressure on Culpepper and he doesn't have time to find his receivers they should win. If this game turns into a shootout, the Vikings will run away with it.
I have not seen any consistency from the Vikings coaching staff or any commitment to running the ball. I also believe Andy Reid also made a big mistake by not letting McNabb play without T.O. and adjust to not having him. But I think when the game starts, Reid has the advantage. I just don't think the Vikings can put two great performances together. The Eagles will win a close one.
The Eagles haven't played a meaningful game in a month. If Terrell Owens were playing that would probably not be a big factor. But McNabb has only played a few series without T.O., and his confidence level in his receivers is probably non-existent. Westbrook is healthy and can do some damage, but the long threat is gone. The Eagles are going to have to change to a bit of a dink and dunk team with Westbrook and LJ Smith. The Vikings are soft against the run, but the Eagles are not exactly a great running team, especially without the long threat. McNabb will have to use Westbrook out of the backfield and he must be quick to use his feet.
The Eagles defense will be the difference in this game. They will blitz hard and try to put a lot of pressure on Culpepper. If they succeed, they should be able to contain the Vikings and keep the game low scoring. The Eagles must also stop the Vikings running attack. Usually the Vikings abandon the run early, so if the Eagles can stop it early they can force the Vikings to be one dimensional.
The Eagles must be very relieved they are not playing the Rams. I believe the Rams would have beaten them. But the Vikings are different and can be stopped by this defense.
The Vikings started fast last week and it carried through the whole game. It would really help them to do it again. Scoring on their first two drives against the Eagles could put them on the ropes. The problem with the Vikings is they tend to force the passing game and not give the running game a chance. Even with a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter last week, the Vikings went 3-and-out trying to pass the ball. The Vikings will use the passing game and be successful if Moss is healthy. But they must be able to run the ball late, and that is a big question mark.
Minnesota's defense didn't just surprise last week, they returned from the dead! Where was that team all year? If that defense shows up again, the Eagles are dead. They put pressure on Favre, they made good tackles, and played good pass defense. It was by far the best performance of the season. They must do all those things again. If they can pressure McNabb into a couple of mistakes and give the offense good field position, this game could be over quickly.
For Minnesota to win, they must be able to run and put some long drives together. If Moss isn't healthy, the Vikes chances diminish drastically. This coaching staff simply can't adjust to life without Moss. If they put up 24 points and play decent defense, they will win.
For the Eagles it is simple, stop Moss and you win. If they put pressure on Culpepper and he doesn't have time to find his receivers they should win. If this game turns into a shootout, the Vikings will run away with it.
I have not seen any consistency from the Vikings coaching staff or any commitment to running the ball. I also believe Andy Reid also made a big mistake by not letting McNabb play without T.O. and adjust to not having him. But I think when the game starts, Reid has the advantage. I just don't think the Vikings can put two great performances together. The Eagles will win a close one.
Divisional Playoffs: Indianapolis Colt at New England Patriots
Looking at the Patriots' injuries and their backfield situation, it is tempting to say the Colts will go there and beat them. But to do that, you would have to ignore some pretty big factors. Mostly, you would have to ignore what Bill Belichick does, and that is to prepare his team to win in any situation. Nobody is better at covering weaknesses and emphasizing strengths than Belichick.
To beat the Colts, you must control the clock. I said this last week about the Broncos, and they failed miserably, losing 49-27. New England won't be as cooperative as Denver was. I expect to see a lot of Corey Dillon and the Patriot Tight Ends, and I expect to see some long, ball-control drives. I also expect Belichick to go for 4th-and-short to keep some drives going.
The key for the Patriots will be how the defense holds up. If the defense can get a couple of turnovers, the Patriots should win. They need to get fast pressure on Manning. I am not talking about bringing a lot of people on the rush, I mean getting someone into the backfield quickly and forcing Manning to throw early or try to run. They will also have to change their coverages and do some things the Colts haven't seen.
New England has left their field uncovered all week (you gotta love it), so the Colts receivers will be slower here than at home. That will really help the Patriot defenders.
The Colts are playing as well as they ever have, so their confidence has to be very high. The Pats' home-field advantage will only slow Indy down, it may not be enough, though. Manning has so many weapons and the Pats are so banged up that you have to believe that the Colts will score 24-35 points. The key for the Colts' offense is to hold onto the ball and not turn it over. If Manning throws interceptions or they put the ball on the ground, New England will make them pay.
The Colts defense can expect to see Dillon about 25-30 times. If they don't stop him and force some 3rd-and-long situations, they will find themselves playing even up, rather than playing with a lead. That means fewer sacks and a tired Colts defense at the end of the game. And that means New England scores easily in the 4th quarter, when it counts. The Colts must stop or slow the Pats' running game.
There are two things to watch here. If turnovers favor New England and Dillon breaks 100 yards, New England will win. If the Colts hold onto the ball and slow Dillon down, the Colts will win. This one could very easily be a blowout for the Colts, but I think the Patriots will keep it close and win it in the 4th quarter. Remember, the Pats have a clutch kicker, and the Colts have an indoor kicker. It may come down to that.
To beat the Colts, you must control the clock. I said this last week about the Broncos, and they failed miserably, losing 49-27. New England won't be as cooperative as Denver was. I expect to see a lot of Corey Dillon and the Patriot Tight Ends, and I expect to see some long, ball-control drives. I also expect Belichick to go for 4th-and-short to keep some drives going.
The key for the Patriots will be how the defense holds up. If the defense can get a couple of turnovers, the Patriots should win. They need to get fast pressure on Manning. I am not talking about bringing a lot of people on the rush, I mean getting someone into the backfield quickly and forcing Manning to throw early or try to run. They will also have to change their coverages and do some things the Colts haven't seen.
New England has left their field uncovered all week (you gotta love it), so the Colts receivers will be slower here than at home. That will really help the Patriot defenders.
The Colts are playing as well as they ever have, so their confidence has to be very high. The Pats' home-field advantage will only slow Indy down, it may not be enough, though. Manning has so many weapons and the Pats are so banged up that you have to believe that the Colts will score 24-35 points. The key for the Colts' offense is to hold onto the ball and not turn it over. If Manning throws interceptions or they put the ball on the ground, New England will make them pay.
The Colts defense can expect to see Dillon about 25-30 times. If they don't stop him and force some 3rd-and-long situations, they will find themselves playing even up, rather than playing with a lead. That means fewer sacks and a tired Colts defense at the end of the game. And that means New England scores easily in the 4th quarter, when it counts. The Colts must stop or slow the Pats' running game.
There are two things to watch here. If turnovers favor New England and Dillon breaks 100 yards, New England will win. If the Colts hold onto the ball and slow Dillon down, the Colts will win. This one could very easily be a blowout for the Colts, but I think the Patriots will keep it close and win it in the 4th quarter. Remember, the Pats have a clutch kicker, and the Colts have an indoor kicker. It may come down to that.
Thursday, January 13, 2005
Divisional Playoffs: St Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons
The Rams have beaten 3 straight playoff teams, although Philly was coasting at the time. So can they keep it going? They should be able to score on the Falcons, with Faulk and Jackson out of the backfield and Holt going deep. One sign that the Rams are starting to click on all cylinders is the emergence of receivers Shaun McDonald and, especially against the Seahawks, Kevin Curtis.
St Louis will score points, so the question for them is can they stop the Falcons? They didn't have much success in the first meeting, a 34-17 loss. The Rams will have to at least partially contain Michael Vick and force him to throw rather than run. They will also have to stop Dunn and Duckett from running wild. That is not easily done.
The Falcons' defense should be able to slow down Faulk and Jackson, they are good against the run. So the challenge for Atlanta is to get to Bulger and force some mistakes. Atlanta must not let this game turn into a track meet, they will not be able to keep up. If the Falcons can force a couple of turnovers, they could pull away again in this game.
Michael Vick is the key to this game. His TD pass/Int ratio of 14/12 is not good. He must avoid throwing interceptions and use his feet to create opportunities. The Falcons must also use their own running game to control the clock. They can take their shots downfield, but they must use the run primarily. Alge Crumpler could also be a big factor in this one. If the Rams stack things up to stop the running game, Vick should be able to find Crumpler.
I think this will be a close game, but the home-town crowd in Atlanta will help carry the Falcons to a win. It could come down to a last-minute field goal at the end.
St Louis will score points, so the question for them is can they stop the Falcons? They didn't have much success in the first meeting, a 34-17 loss. The Rams will have to at least partially contain Michael Vick and force him to throw rather than run. They will also have to stop Dunn and Duckett from running wild. That is not easily done.
The Falcons' defense should be able to slow down Faulk and Jackson, they are good against the run. So the challenge for Atlanta is to get to Bulger and force some mistakes. Atlanta must not let this game turn into a track meet, they will not be able to keep up. If the Falcons can force a couple of turnovers, they could pull away again in this game.
Michael Vick is the key to this game. His TD pass/Int ratio of 14/12 is not good. He must avoid throwing interceptions and use his feet to create opportunities. The Falcons must also use their own running game to control the clock. They can take their shots downfield, but they must use the run primarily. Alge Crumpler could also be a big factor in this one. If the Rams stack things up to stop the running game, Vick should be able to find Crumpler.
I think this will be a close game, but the home-town crowd in Atlanta will help carry the Falcons to a win. It could come down to a last-minute field goal at the end.
The Opposite of Moss
Ben Roethlisberger is donating his first playoff check to the tsunami victims and challenging others to do the same. There's more good than bad in the NFL, much more, and this is just one shining example. Way to go, Ben.
Manning Says New Rules Didn't Help Him
In the same article where Tony Dungy praised last weeks refs, Peyton Manning says the new rules and rigid enforcement concerning pass interference and defensive holding had no affect on his team's performance.
How much it has helped is debatable. Scoring and passing numbers are up this season. But two-time MVP Peyton Manning and his record-setting receivers have downplayed the impact the new rules interpretations have had on Indianapolis' high-scoring offense.
"I don't think it's had any affect on us," Manning said last month.
Yeah, Peyton, it's just coincidence that passing yards, scoring, and passing TDs are up in the same year that they started calling these things close. It's also just a coincidence that you set that record this season.
Manning had a great year and the passing TD record was well-earned. But to downplay the biggest factor isn't rational. Apparently, Vanderjagt is now sharing the keys to the liquor cabinet.
How much it has helped is debatable. Scoring and passing numbers are up this season. But two-time MVP Peyton Manning and his record-setting receivers have downplayed the impact the new rules interpretations have had on Indianapolis' high-scoring offense.
"I don't think it's had any affect on us," Manning said last month.
Yeah, Peyton, it's just coincidence that passing yards, scoring, and passing TDs are up in the same year that they started calling these things close. It's also just a coincidence that you set that record this season.
Manning had a great year and the passing TD record was well-earned. But to downplay the biggest factor isn't rational. Apparently, Vanderjagt is now sharing the keys to the liquor cabinet.
Mind Games, NFL Style
Tony Dungy is publicly pleading for the refs to continue calling the games correctly. Last year the Patriots roughed up a lot of receivers on their way to the Super Bowl, including wins over Denver and Indianapolis, where they weren't just roughed up, they were abused.
Now Dungy is praising the refs for their work last week, as if the Broncos ever got close to covering one of his receivers, in an attempt to suck up and continue to get the calls (or non-calls) going his way. Mind-game #1.
New England has uncovered their field for the last few days in an attempt to "improve" conditions for their own linemen and to hopefully make it a slower field for the Colts' receivers. Leave it to the Patriots to do a little field tampering for, or in, a playoff game. Mind-game #2.
Andy Reid is still saying that it was good for him to rest his players for so long. Now he is citing the fact that there are so many leaders in the locker room that will help get the team intensity back up. Mind-game #3.
Mike Vanderjagt called the Patriots "ripe for the picking". Really, Mike? How would you know? When was the last time you really got nailed by a 300-pound behemoth intent on running all the way through you? Mind-game #4, advantage Patriots.
There's nothing like playoff football!
Now Dungy is praising the refs for their work last week, as if the Broncos ever got close to covering one of his receivers, in an attempt to suck up and continue to get the calls (or non-calls) going his way. Mind-game #1.
New England has uncovered their field for the last few days in an attempt to "improve" conditions for their own linemen and to hopefully make it a slower field for the Colts' receivers. Leave it to the Patriots to do a little field tampering for, or in, a playoff game. Mind-game #2.
Andy Reid is still saying that it was good for him to rest his players for so long. Now he is citing the fact that there are so many leaders in the locker room that will help get the team intensity back up. Mind-game #3.
Mike Vanderjagt called the Patriots "ripe for the picking". Really, Mike? How would you know? When was the last time you really got nailed by a 300-pound behemoth intent on running all the way through you? Mind-game #4, advantage Patriots.
There's nothing like playoff football!
Wednesday, January 12, 2005
Divisional Playoffs: New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
This is yet another rematch of a regular season game. If you were able to watch the first one, you saw a banged-up Steelers team slowly wear down the Jets for 2-1/2 quarters, then physically dominate them for the rest of the game for a 17-6 victory. As I watched that game I came to the conclusion that, if the Steelers are playing well, nobody can beat them.
The Jets were impressive at San Diego and they are an excellent team. But they just can't match the Steelers physically. Pittsburgh just pounds away with the running game and throws a few well-timed passes. Staley and Bettis, and now even Parker, are big punishing runners that just wear you down.
Defensively, the Steelers are big, fast, and very aggressive. There has been much said and written about Pittsburgh's offense, but I really believe the defense is responsible for their success this year. It was the defense that stopped the Eagles, with TO, and the Patriots from getting into their games. The Steelers are the #1 defense in the league, 1st against the run, 4th against the pass, 1st in scoring, and 5th in takeaway/giveaway ratio!
When you mix the top defense in the league with one of the best running games in the league, you end up with a Super Bowl team. That's what the Jets are up against this week. I would expect the Jets to play well and hang close to the Steelers in the first half again, but I think Pittsburgh will dominate the 2nd half and come away with a big victory.
For the Jets to win, they must have their running game working and be able to complete some short passes to move the chains. The offense cannot afford to turn the ball over. With Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan, New York should have some success running the ball. The real challenge will be to complete long, time-consuming drives with TDs. They will have to be patient against the Pittsburgh defense.
Defensively, the Jets must slow down the Steelers' running game. Pittsburgh averages 4.0 yards/carry. If they don't force Pittsburgh into some 3rd-and-long situations, the Jets are in for a long day. They must slow down the run and force Pittsburgh into some passing situations. If the Jets don't come up with a couple of turnovers, it will be nearly impossible to win.
And finally, the Jets can't have Eric Barton, or any other player, making bonehead mistakes. Bill Cowher's teams live off those mistakes!
The Jets were impressive at San Diego and they are an excellent team. But they just can't match the Steelers physically. Pittsburgh just pounds away with the running game and throws a few well-timed passes. Staley and Bettis, and now even Parker, are big punishing runners that just wear you down.
Defensively, the Steelers are big, fast, and very aggressive. There has been much said and written about Pittsburgh's offense, but I really believe the defense is responsible for their success this year. It was the defense that stopped the Eagles, with TO, and the Patriots from getting into their games. The Steelers are the #1 defense in the league, 1st against the run, 4th against the pass, 1st in scoring, and 5th in takeaway/giveaway ratio!
When you mix the top defense in the league with one of the best running games in the league, you end up with a Super Bowl team. That's what the Jets are up against this week. I would expect the Jets to play well and hang close to the Steelers in the first half again, but I think Pittsburgh will dominate the 2nd half and come away with a big victory.
For the Jets to win, they must have their running game working and be able to complete some short passes to move the chains. The offense cannot afford to turn the ball over. With Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan, New York should have some success running the ball. The real challenge will be to complete long, time-consuming drives with TDs. They will have to be patient against the Pittsburgh defense.
Defensively, the Jets must slow down the Steelers' running game. Pittsburgh averages 4.0 yards/carry. If they don't force Pittsburgh into some 3rd-and-long situations, the Jets are in for a long day. They must slow down the run and force Pittsburgh into some passing situations. If the Jets don't come up with a couple of turnovers, it will be nearly impossible to win.
And finally, the Jets can't have Eric Barton, or any other player, making bonehead mistakes. Bill Cowher's teams live off those mistakes!
Tuesday, January 11, 2005
The Rest of the Randy Moss Story
I just found this article concerning the Moss Moon story. I was not aware of this. If true, why didn't Moss just say so? JB, Terry, and Howie may want to tone down their criticism a bit. I know I will.
But, Randy, that's still not the smartest thing you could have done!
But, Randy, that's still not the smartest thing you could have done!
Random Thoughts From Wildcard Weekend
It's a good thing John Lynch sent that message to the Colts' receivers! Things might have gotten out of hand.
Why the heck can't anyone tackle anymore?!?!? The Packers were just slapping at things and the Broncos were practicing their finger tackles.
Eric Barton very nearly surpassed Ricky Williams in the Dumbass of the Year competition. It was thiiisssss close! (Picture my thumb and forefinger millimeters apart.)
Joe Theisman is at times brilliant, and at others just plain obnoxious. Joe, not everything you see is the greatest something that ever happened! But his observations on Darrell Jackson were great.
Two Dome-teams won on the road. Hmmm....
Mike Martz has now gone 2 consecutive games without a real bonehead decision! And the Rams won them both.
Andy Reid with two weeks to game plan is not nearly as scary as Bill Belichick with two weeks to game plan.
If Randy Moss can score on the Packers with a badly injured ankle, can the Packers really say they've been playing good defense? Moss was almost walking his routes!
Is Marty having visions of violence concerning that damn placekicker? He should be.
We haven't been hearing much about the Falcons this year. With all the hype about the Eagles, Roethlisberger, and Manning, are we overlooking the one team that could really make some noise?
Shannon Sharpe, please shut the hell up! CBS is really not having a good year.
My picks didn't go very well, maybe I should think about not doing that anymore.... Nah!!
Why the heck can't anyone tackle anymore?!?!? The Packers were just slapping at things and the Broncos were practicing their finger tackles.
Eric Barton very nearly surpassed Ricky Williams in the Dumbass of the Year competition. It was thiiisssss close! (Picture my thumb and forefinger millimeters apart.)
Joe Theisman is at times brilliant, and at others just plain obnoxious. Joe, not everything you see is the greatest something that ever happened! But his observations on Darrell Jackson were great.
Two Dome-teams won on the road. Hmmm....
Mike Martz has now gone 2 consecutive games without a real bonehead decision! And the Rams won them both.
Andy Reid with two weeks to game plan is not nearly as scary as Bill Belichick with two weeks to game plan.
If Randy Moss can score on the Packers with a badly injured ankle, can the Packers really say they've been playing good defense? Moss was almost walking his routes!
Is Marty having visions of violence concerning that damn placekicker? He should be.
We haven't been hearing much about the Falcons this year. With all the hype about the Eagles, Roethlisberger, and Manning, are we overlooking the one team that could really make some noise?
Shannon Sharpe, please shut the hell up! CBS is really not having a good year.
My picks didn't go very well, maybe I should think about not doing that anymore.... Nah!!
Running Game Not as Important Anymore?
Pat Kirwan has written an interesting article on Superbowl.com where he talks about the decline of the rushing game in the playoffs recently.
He writes: So what is it? In seven of the 11 playoff games last year, the winning team did not have a 100-yard rusher. Not that 100 yards is a benchmark for running the ball, but it was passing yardage that determined winning more than a 100-yard rusher.
Well, with four playoff games in the books for January 2005, not one winning team (Jets, Colts, Vikings or Rams) had a 100-yard rushing performance. In fact, nobody from a winning team rushed for more than 66 yards. The Vikings' leading rusher was Daunte Culpepper with 54 yards. Imagine, a scrambling QB -- who wanted to throw the ball but couldn't find an open receiver -- was his team's leading rusher!
This is an excellent article and Mr Kirwan makes some very valid points. But, if he is trying to say that the rushing game isn't important to winning, he failed to make his case. In fact, a closer look shows that the rushing game is as important as ever.
It's true that no winning team last week had a 100-yard rusher. But 3 of the 4 winners out-rushed their opponents. Only the Colts failed to do so, by 2 yards.
Team Rushing Yards
St. Louis - 102, Seattle - 81
Jets - 126, San Diego - 100
Indy - 76, Denver - 78
Minn - 123, Green Bay - 105
Notice that not only did all 3 UPSET winners go over 100 yards, all 3 out-rushed their opponents. The running game is as vital as ever! Assuming you need a single rusher to get 100 doesn't hold up.
There are several reasons for the current trend that Mr Kirwan found.
Most teams are now using multiple backs and not relying on a single runner. The Rams have Faulk and Steven Jackson, the Jets used Martin and Lamont Jordan, the Vikings used Bennett, Onterrio Smith, and Culpepper. Defenses are stacking against the run, as mentioned in Kirwan's article, but offenses are countering by using 2 or 3 backs, not going pass-happy.
Culpepper did get many yards for the Vikings, but rush yards are rush yards. Mobile QBs are valuable because they can run. When you think of Vick, do you think of his passing accuracy or his running ability?
The other reason is that many teams are using their running backs as receivers more and more. A more accurate stat to look at these days is Yards From Scrimmage. Taking the Vikings as an example, Moe Williams (RB) had no rushing yards but 72 receiving yards. The Vikes' running backs had only 69 rush yards, but had 175 yards from scrimmage.
And if we look at past Super Bowls, the rushing stat becomes much more important. In the last 10 Super Bowls the winning team has out-rushed the loser 7 times, and was very close in another. That's 8 of 10 Super Bowls where the winner had the better running game. In the two games where the winner was clearly out-rushed, the games were fairly close.
In SB-30, Dallas beat Pittsburgh 27-17 despite being out-rushed 56-103. But O'Donnell threw 2 big interceptions that were quickly converted to TDs by the Cowboys. Defense turned the tide. In SB-34, St Louis was out-rushed 29-159, but Faulk had 107 yards from scrimmage. And also remember, Tennessee came up 1 yard short of sending that one into OT.
There may be a statistical trend showing the running game is not as important as before, but the numbers are misleading. Championships are won by teams that can run and play defense.
He writes: So what is it? In seven of the 11 playoff games last year, the winning team did not have a 100-yard rusher. Not that 100 yards is a benchmark for running the ball, but it was passing yardage that determined winning more than a 100-yard rusher.
Well, with four playoff games in the books for January 2005, not one winning team (Jets, Colts, Vikings or Rams) had a 100-yard rushing performance. In fact, nobody from a winning team rushed for more than 66 yards. The Vikings' leading rusher was Daunte Culpepper with 54 yards. Imagine, a scrambling QB -- who wanted to throw the ball but couldn't find an open receiver -- was his team's leading rusher!
This is an excellent article and Mr Kirwan makes some very valid points. But, if he is trying to say that the rushing game isn't important to winning, he failed to make his case. In fact, a closer look shows that the rushing game is as important as ever.
It's true that no winning team last week had a 100-yard rusher. But 3 of the 4 winners out-rushed their opponents. Only the Colts failed to do so, by 2 yards.
Team Rushing Yards
St. Louis - 102, Seattle - 81
Jets - 126, San Diego - 100
Indy - 76, Denver - 78
Minn - 123, Green Bay - 105
Notice that not only did all 3 UPSET winners go over 100 yards, all 3 out-rushed their opponents. The running game is as vital as ever! Assuming you need a single rusher to get 100 doesn't hold up.
There are several reasons for the current trend that Mr Kirwan found.
Most teams are now using multiple backs and not relying on a single runner. The Rams have Faulk and Steven Jackson, the Jets used Martin and Lamont Jordan, the Vikings used Bennett, Onterrio Smith, and Culpepper. Defenses are stacking against the run, as mentioned in Kirwan's article, but offenses are countering by using 2 or 3 backs, not going pass-happy.
Culpepper did get many yards for the Vikings, but rush yards are rush yards. Mobile QBs are valuable because they can run. When you think of Vick, do you think of his passing accuracy or his running ability?
The other reason is that many teams are using their running backs as receivers more and more. A more accurate stat to look at these days is Yards From Scrimmage. Taking the Vikings as an example, Moe Williams (RB) had no rushing yards but 72 receiving yards. The Vikes' running backs had only 69 rush yards, but had 175 yards from scrimmage.
And if we look at past Super Bowls, the rushing stat becomes much more important. In the last 10 Super Bowls the winning team has out-rushed the loser 7 times, and was very close in another. That's 8 of 10 Super Bowls where the winner had the better running game. In the two games where the winner was clearly out-rushed, the games were fairly close.
In SB-30, Dallas beat Pittsburgh 27-17 despite being out-rushed 56-103. But O'Donnell threw 2 big interceptions that were quickly converted to TDs by the Cowboys. Defense turned the tide. In SB-34, St Louis was out-rushed 29-159, but Faulk had 107 yards from scrimmage. And also remember, Tennessee came up 1 yard short of sending that one into OT.
There may be a statistical trend showing the running game is not as important as before, but the numbers are misleading. Championships are won by teams that can run and play defense.
Feedster Selects ArDubby As Link of the Day
Feedster selected this blog as its link of the day on Monday. This is a very young blog and I was very excited to get the news. I am also very appreciative!! Thank You, Feedster!
Monday, January 10, 2005
Randy Moss Still a Jackass
Last week I wrote that Randy Moss' antics at the end of the Vikings/Redskins game were understandable if they were caused by the frustration of the late-season collapse and the very bad game decisions made by the Vikings' coaching staff. I also said I wouldn't be surprised if Moss had a monster game at Green Bay.
The Vikings did have a great day and Moss was a huge part. The Vikings' players were motivated and the coaches brought out a great game plan. Then, at the end, Randy Moss went and did something stupid again.
It appeared this season that Moss had matured and had even stepped up to be a leader on the team. Now we all have to listen to all the media analysts and sports people critique Randy Moss and the Vikings all over again, ad nauseum. You will hear all the old complaints of spoiled athletes, societal causes, blah, blah, blah...
I have come to the conclusion that Randy Moss is just a jackass. He wasn't raised to know class from classless, good behavior from bad, or funny from stupid. Nobody is going to change him now. The real problem here is that Moss is bringing a lot of controversy to a group of players who deserve to be basking in the glow of a great playoff victory. Not answering stupid questions over and over about Moss' socially retarded behavior.
You will also hear a lot about what to do with Moss. What needs to happen is his teammates need to make it clear that this is the last they will tolerate. Daunte Culpepper deserves better than this. Michael Bennet, Burleson, Matt Birk, and every other honorable Vikings player has to somehow try to show Moss that his behavior is hurting every one of them. Coaches and media cannot reach Moss, only his peers can do that, if anyone can. I suggest they take him out behind the practice facility and beat the hell out of him, but that's just me.
I said last week that trading Moss was a foolish idea. Not any more. He is doing more harm than good. And, at some point, an organization must take a stand. Do we tolerate Moss and keep winning with the same formula, or do we trade him and his problems away and risk the losses? He DOES make the Vikings better when he is on the field.
The Vikings showed yesterday that they have the base personnel to win. I also believe they have the makings of a great running game, but not the coaching ideology to make it happen. Trading Moss would hurt the Vikings for a season, and possibly longer, but he is no longer the untouchable that some of us thought he was.
The Vikings did have a great day and Moss was a huge part. The Vikings' players were motivated and the coaches brought out a great game plan. Then, at the end, Randy Moss went and did something stupid again.
It appeared this season that Moss had matured and had even stepped up to be a leader on the team. Now we all have to listen to all the media analysts and sports people critique Randy Moss and the Vikings all over again, ad nauseum. You will hear all the old complaints of spoiled athletes, societal causes, blah, blah, blah...
I have come to the conclusion that Randy Moss is just a jackass. He wasn't raised to know class from classless, good behavior from bad, or funny from stupid. Nobody is going to change him now. The real problem here is that Moss is bringing a lot of controversy to a group of players who deserve to be basking in the glow of a great playoff victory. Not answering stupid questions over and over about Moss' socially retarded behavior.
You will also hear a lot about what to do with Moss. What needs to happen is his teammates need to make it clear that this is the last they will tolerate. Daunte Culpepper deserves better than this. Michael Bennet, Burleson, Matt Birk, and every other honorable Vikings player has to somehow try to show Moss that his behavior is hurting every one of them. Coaches and media cannot reach Moss, only his peers can do that, if anyone can. I suggest they take him out behind the practice facility and beat the hell out of him, but that's just me.
I said last week that trading Moss was a foolish idea. Not any more. He is doing more harm than good. And, at some point, an organization must take a stand. Do we tolerate Moss and keep winning with the same formula, or do we trade him and his problems away and risk the losses? He DOES make the Vikings better when he is on the field.
The Vikings showed yesterday that they have the base personnel to win. I also believe they have the makings of a great running game, but not the coaching ideology to make it happen. Trading Moss would hurt the Vikings for a season, and possibly longer, but he is no longer the untouchable that some of us thought he was.
Vikings Defense Magically Appears, Stops Packers 31-17
The Minnesota Vikings defense disappeared several years ago. They have been searching for it ever since. It magically re-appeared in Green Bay on Sunday and intercepted Brett Favre 4 times!
The Vikings came out with a huge play on their opening drive and quickly ran out to a 14-0 lead. Favre got them back to 17-10, and later to 24-17, but the Vikings were able to keep scoring when they really needed it. And the defense kept coming up with the big play; interceptions, run-stops, and a huge sack late in the game.
Daunte Culpepper played a great game and threw 4 TD passes and no interceptions. He also made a couple of timely runs and used his legs to buy some time for his receivers. He kept the Packers defense off-balance.
Mike Tice also appears to have learned a few lessons from the late-season collapse that had many, including me, calling for his firing. His late-game coaching was terrible in the last two months. But on Sunday the Vikings came out with an excellent game plan. Early in the 4th quarter, with a 2 TD lead, Tice kept wanting to throw and produced two straight 3-and-outs. But in the last 8 minutes, Tice finally figured it out and began using his running game to burn the clock.
The Packers did not play well and were hit with some key injuries. The biggest was to WR Javon Walker. Without Walker and Ferguson, Favre struggled and Green Bay suffered another big home loss.
The Vikings used the controversy with Moss and some other distractions to motivate themselves this week. Apparently Randy Moss thinks this is a good strategy, so he is looking for new ways to tick people off, create controversy, and motivate his team. After his 2nd TD catch of the day that put the Packers away, Moss feigned mooning the crowd and then made it worse with another tasteless gesture. It's time to stop trying to talk sense to Moss and just slap the snot out him! More on that later.
The Vikings showed how they ran out to 6-0 and 5-1 starts in the last 2 seasons. Now they have a rematch with Philly, and if they play like they did in Green Bay on Sunday, they have a real chance to beat the Eagles.
The Vikings came out with a huge play on their opening drive and quickly ran out to a 14-0 lead. Favre got them back to 17-10, and later to 24-17, but the Vikings were able to keep scoring when they really needed it. And the defense kept coming up with the big play; interceptions, run-stops, and a huge sack late in the game.
Daunte Culpepper played a great game and threw 4 TD passes and no interceptions. He also made a couple of timely runs and used his legs to buy some time for his receivers. He kept the Packers defense off-balance.
Mike Tice also appears to have learned a few lessons from the late-season collapse that had many, including me, calling for his firing. His late-game coaching was terrible in the last two months. But on Sunday the Vikings came out with an excellent game plan. Early in the 4th quarter, with a 2 TD lead, Tice kept wanting to throw and produced two straight 3-and-outs. But in the last 8 minutes, Tice finally figured it out and began using his running game to burn the clock.
The Packers did not play well and were hit with some key injuries. The biggest was to WR Javon Walker. Without Walker and Ferguson, Favre struggled and Green Bay suffered another big home loss.
The Vikings used the controversy with Moss and some other distractions to motivate themselves this week. Apparently Randy Moss thinks this is a good strategy, so he is looking for new ways to tick people off, create controversy, and motivate his team. After his 2nd TD catch of the day that put the Packers away, Moss feigned mooning the crowd and then made it worse with another tasteless gesture. It's time to stop trying to talk sense to Moss and just slap the snot out him! More on that later.
The Vikings showed how they ran out to 6-0 and 5-1 starts in the last 2 seasons. Now they have a rematch with Philly, and if they play like they did in Green Bay on Sunday, they have a real chance to beat the Eagles.
Colts Roll Over Broncos 49-24
In a game not as close as the score might indicate, the Indianapolis Colts annihilated the Denver Broncos again. Peyton Manning was unbelievable, the Broncos defense was not up to the task, and Denver's offensive game plan was puzzling.
The Colts came out apparently loaded up against the run, and the Broncos, inexplicably, seemed determined to turn this into a shootout. Denver came out throwing and had some success. But their drives stalled at midfield and they gave the Colts the ball. Manning's first drive got some yards, but stalled, then he found what he was looking for and they never looked back.
The Broncos got Champ Bailey to slow down receivers like Marvin Harrison and he did a pretty good job. The problem is, the Colts have so many more weapons. Reggie Wayne did the damage early and opened the flood gates.
The real surprise here is that Denver came out so determined to throw the ball. I wrote earlier this week that Denver would have to run the ball successfully and control the clock to have any chance at all. They ran for only 76 yards and split time of possession evenly with the Colts. In fact, the Colts scored twice as much as the Broncos in the same amount of time. That's why you have to control the clock to beat them.
The Colts dominated the Broncos from the opening kickoff and never gave them a real chance. Now they have to take this show on the road and beat the Patriots and, probably, the Steelers. The Patriots are having some injury and coaching issues, so the Colts may be able to pull it out in Foxboro.
The Colts came out apparently loaded up against the run, and the Broncos, inexplicably, seemed determined to turn this into a shootout. Denver came out throwing and had some success. But their drives stalled at midfield and they gave the Colts the ball. Manning's first drive got some yards, but stalled, then he found what he was looking for and they never looked back.
The Broncos got Champ Bailey to slow down receivers like Marvin Harrison and he did a pretty good job. The problem is, the Colts have so many more weapons. Reggie Wayne did the damage early and opened the flood gates.
The real surprise here is that Denver came out so determined to throw the ball. I wrote earlier this week that Denver would have to run the ball successfully and control the clock to have any chance at all. They ran for only 76 yards and split time of possession evenly with the Colts. In fact, the Colts scored twice as much as the Broncos in the same amount of time. That's why you have to control the clock to beat them.
The Colts dominated the Broncos from the opening kickoff and never gave them a real chance. Now they have to take this show on the road and beat the Patriots and, probably, the Steelers. The Patriots are having some injury and coaching issues, so the Colts may be able to pull it out in Foxboro.
Saturday, January 08, 2005
From Goat to Footnote
In another great game on Saturday the Jets pulled off a big OT upset over the Chargers. And nobody is more relieved about that than Eric Barton. Barton roughed the QB on a 4th and goal very late in the game, and gave the Chargers new life and a second chance. They then scored the tying TD and went to overtime.
But then Marty Schottenheimer got his team in scoring position and then called 3 straight obvious running plays and allowed his kicker to attempt a long FG to win the game. It went right, the Jets drove for their own FG, and Barton was able to breathe again. Did Marty make the right call in trusting his kicker to make a 35-40 yard FG? I think he did, but Madden wasn't so sure.
Eric Barton dodged a historical bullet tonight! If the Chargers had won, he would have had that on his resume forever. But the Jets won and he is now just an interesting footnote in the game.
Speaking of footnotes, I would love to know what Herm Edwards was screaming at his RB coach for! I doubt we'll ever know for sure, but aren't you curious?
Two road teams in a row. Could it be a trend?
But then Marty Schottenheimer got his team in scoring position and then called 3 straight obvious running plays and allowed his kicker to attempt a long FG to win the game. It went right, the Jets drove for their own FG, and Barton was able to breathe again. Did Marty make the right call in trusting his kicker to make a 35-40 yard FG? I think he did, but Madden wasn't so sure.
Eric Barton dodged a historical bullet tonight! If the Chargers had won, he would have had that on his resume forever. But the Jets won and he is now just an interesting footnote in the game.
Speaking of footnotes, I would love to know what Herm Edwards was screaming at his RB coach for! I doubt we'll ever know for sure, but aren't you curious?
Two road teams in a row. Could it be a trend?
Rams Hold On, Seahawks Don't
The Rams played a great game and Martz called a great game! How long has it been since we could say that? The Rams used the run perfectly to set up the pass, but also to use up clock. The St Louis defense also played a great game, but got a lot of help from the Seahawks. Seattle's defense committed a couple of key penalties and their receivers dropped some HUGE passes, including the one that could have sent it to OT.
How many passes have to be dropped before Holmgren cuts someone and gets a decent receiver? But, to his credit, Hasselbeck is saying it was his fault on the final pass.
The Rams must do a couple of things to win. Stopping Shaun Alexander isn't one of them. Alexander has run all over them in both games this year. St Louis must use the run game to control the clock, and they must NOT turn the ball over. If they do that, they will easily outscore the Seahawks.
I am going to hurt myself patting myself on the back, but I wrote that earlier this week. It's a simple playoff formula, but it usually works if you can pull it off. Maybe Martz has seen the light.
Now it's off to Philly, and we'll see if the Rams can pull off two straight. I think they will surprise some people.
How many passes have to be dropped before Holmgren cuts someone and gets a decent receiver? But, to his credit, Hasselbeck is saying it was his fault on the final pass.
The Rams must do a couple of things to win. Stopping Shaun Alexander isn't one of them. Alexander has run all over them in both games this year. St Louis must use the run game to control the clock, and they must NOT turn the ball over. If they do that, they will easily outscore the Seahawks.
I am going to hurt myself patting myself on the back, but I wrote that earlier this week. It's a simple playoff formula, but it usually works if you can pull it off. Maybe Martz has seen the light.
Now it's off to Philly, and we'll see if the Rams can pull off two straight. I think they will surprise some people.
Light Blogging Over the Weekend
It is a busy weekend at the ArDubby house this weekend. Little Dubby 2 is in a wrestling tournament and Little Dubby 3 is in a basketball tournament. That means I get to see the games today, but might miss the Broncos playing the Colts. Back in time to see the Vikings/Packers game.
Possibly missing the Broncos game is likely to inflict a high mental stress, so, if they get blown away like last year, I will take no responsibility for whatever damage I inflict.
Final note: I want the Vikings to win, they are my new home team. But I think we need a new coach. If the Vikings win, the possibility of coaching change plummets. If they lose, the chances increase. I'm torn! Long-term success requires changes, short-term success means no changes. I will cheer if they win, but is it wrong of me to not feel bad if they lose?
Possibly missing the Broncos game is likely to inflict a high mental stress, so, if they get blown away like last year, I will take no responsibility for whatever damage I inflict.
Final note: I want the Vikings to win, they are my new home team. But I think we need a new coach. If the Vikings win, the possibility of coaching change plummets. If they lose, the chances increase. I'm torn! Long-term success requires changes, short-term success means no changes. I will cheer if they win, but is it wrong of me to not feel bad if they lose?
Friday, January 07, 2005
Cleveland Browns Get Right Guy; Baltimore Looking at Wrong Guys
The Cleveland Browns hired Phil Savage away from Baltimore to be their GM. Most people seem to agree that this is a great move by the Browns. It also happened quickly enough that Cleveland can now jump into finding the right coach.
Baltimore is looking for an Offensive Coordinator, and is looking in all the wrong places.
NFL.com reports that the Ravens are looking at Rick Neuheisel and the Vikings' Scott Linehan, among others. Having lived in Colorado until 1998 and in Minnesota since then, I am very familiar with both names. And not in a positive way.
Rick Neuheisel spent time as the CU Buffaloes coach. He had some early success, but the program quickly declined and Neuheisel left under a cloud of NCAA violation suspicions. He even broke a few rules tampering with CU players as he slinked out of town to Washington. The U of W had to compensate CU for Rick's indiscretions.
Neuheisel then had a lot of early success in Washington before getting embroiled in another scandal involving high-stakes basketball pools. He left Washington under a cloud of suspicion also.
"I'm thankful for Coach Billick providing me the opportunity to have a conversation, especially after what's happened to me over the past couple of years. Opportunities have been few and far between," he said. "I long to get back into the game, so it's a thrill to be here."
Tough finding a job when you keep leaving places under ethically-challenged circumstances.
Baltimore is also looking at Scott Linehan of the Vikings. Take our offensive coordinator, please! The Ravens would be doing the Vikes a huge favor. Scoring production is down under Linehan and the running game has all but disappeared. The game plans under Linehan have produced two straight late-season collapses.
"I plan on moving along quickly," said Billick, adding that the process could be completed as soon as next week.
Yeah, no sense wasting too much time searching for someone you only expect to drag your offense out of the ashes. If Baltimore chooses one of these guys, we can expect a lot more 8-8 and 9-7 seasons out of them. The good news for other AFC teams is, it leaves a playoff spot open for the rest of them.
Baltimore is looking for an Offensive Coordinator, and is looking in all the wrong places.
NFL.com reports that the Ravens are looking at Rick Neuheisel and the Vikings' Scott Linehan, among others. Having lived in Colorado until 1998 and in Minnesota since then, I am very familiar with both names. And not in a positive way.
Rick Neuheisel spent time as the CU Buffaloes coach. He had some early success, but the program quickly declined and Neuheisel left under a cloud of NCAA violation suspicions. He even broke a few rules tampering with CU players as he slinked out of town to Washington. The U of W had to compensate CU for Rick's indiscretions.
Neuheisel then had a lot of early success in Washington before getting embroiled in another scandal involving high-stakes basketball pools. He left Washington under a cloud of suspicion also.
"I'm thankful for Coach Billick providing me the opportunity to have a conversation, especially after what's happened to me over the past couple of years. Opportunities have been few and far between," he said. "I long to get back into the game, so it's a thrill to be here."
Tough finding a job when you keep leaving places under ethically-challenged circumstances.
Baltimore is also looking at Scott Linehan of the Vikings. Take our offensive coordinator, please! The Ravens would be doing the Vikes a huge favor. Scoring production is down under Linehan and the running game has all but disappeared. The game plans under Linehan have produced two straight late-season collapses.
"I plan on moving along quickly," said Billick, adding that the process could be completed as soon as next week.
Yeah, no sense wasting too much time searching for someone you only expect to drag your offense out of the ashes. If Baltimore chooses one of these guys, we can expect a lot more 8-8 and 9-7 seasons out of them. The good news for other AFC teams is, it leaves a playoff spot open for the rest of them.
Wildcard Weekend: Broncos at Colts
Nobody is giving Denver a chance in Indy. Nobody!! But, the Broncos could pull off the biggest upset of the weekend. It will be difficult, but Denver is capable of doing it.
The Colts have the great passing game and Peyton Manning, they have Edgerrin James, and they have the Dome. But they don't have the defense. The Colts have a swagger and could be looking ahead to New England. Next to the Eagles, I think the Colts are the most upsettable team in the playoffs. They will score 24-31 points, that is almost a given. But, if they don't score more than that, Denver could burn this defense for a lot of points and beat them 35-31 or 38-35.
The Broncos must do many things well to pull it off. They must run the ball and control the clock. If Denver's time of possession surpasses 35 minutes, they are on the right track. They must score on almost every possession and it must be TDs, not FGs. That is something the Broncos struggled with all year. Plummer can't make a mistake, a tall order for Jake! And the defense must get pressure on Manning and get physical with the Colts' receivers. Make Edgerrin James beat you, not Manning!
The Colts just have to play well and not turn the ball over. They have a great offense and should win this game. But if they are thinking about the Patriots, the Broncos will slap them down.
The Colts have the great passing game and Peyton Manning, they have Edgerrin James, and they have the Dome. But they don't have the defense. The Colts have a swagger and could be looking ahead to New England. Next to the Eagles, I think the Colts are the most upsettable team in the playoffs. They will score 24-31 points, that is almost a given. But, if they don't score more than that, Denver could burn this defense for a lot of points and beat them 35-31 or 38-35.
The Broncos must do many things well to pull it off. They must run the ball and control the clock. If Denver's time of possession surpasses 35 minutes, they are on the right track. They must score on almost every possession and it must be TDs, not FGs. That is something the Broncos struggled with all year. Plummer can't make a mistake, a tall order for Jake! And the defense must get pressure on Manning and get physical with the Colts' receivers. Make Edgerrin James beat you, not Manning!
The Colts just have to play well and not turn the ball over. They have a great offense and should win this game. But if they are thinking about the Patriots, the Broncos will slap them down.
Wildcard Weekend: Jets at Chargers
In a rematch of a game played earlier this season, the Jets make a cost-to-coast trip to take on the Chargers. New York has lost a few tough games to very good teams this year. They are a team that seems to be on the verge of a breakthrough, but just can't make it happen.
Pennington does not seem to be 100% recovered from his injury, and the defense is still dinged up. And their confidence has to be shaken. The one thing that could put the Jets over the top is a huge game from Curtis Martin. The Jets must be able to run to have any chance. It would also help to get the short passing game going and have the defense step up. None of that is out ofthe question.
The Chargers are on a roll and nearly knocked off the Colts in Indy. They have the running game and defense to go deep into the playoffs. Marty Schottenheimer has a lot of playoff experience and I think he will come up with the better game plan. The Chargers defense should be able to the Jets down and control the game.
Pennington does not seem to be 100% recovered from his injury, and the defense is still dinged up. And their confidence has to be shaken. The one thing that could put the Jets over the top is a huge game from Curtis Martin. The Jets must be able to run to have any chance. It would also help to get the short passing game going and have the defense step up. None of that is out ofthe question.
The Chargers are on a roll and nearly knocked off the Colts in Indy. They have the running game and defense to go deep into the playoffs. Marty Schottenheimer has a lot of playoff experience and I think he will come up with the better game plan. The Chargers defense should be able to the Jets down and control the game.
Wildcard Weekend: Vikings at Packers
Earlier this week I said the Packers would win this one easily. Now I'm hedging my bets a little. The reason is the Randy Moss incident last week has really exploded into a big deal. Moss has been in this situation before and he tends to play extraordinary games when he is called out.
Whether or not Moss has that big game depends on a couple of things. If he walked off the field because he was angry at losing, he should respond big time. If he walked off over a complete dissatisfaction with the coaches and defense, I don't think he will have the big game. If Moss doesn't have the big game, the Vikings have no chance.
The Packers have home field, an effective running game, Brett Favre, and a coaching staff that is aggressive and knows how to win. They also have playoff experience. They have one other thing going for them, the confidence of knowing that they can get the ball back with less than 2 minutes left in the game and easily march for a score. I don't remember a team that has lost more games on last minute drives then the Vikings have this year.
Bottom line is, if the Packers can control Moss and not let him go wild, Green Bay wins easily. If Moss has the big game the Vikings have a chance as long as they are ahead by more than a TD at the end of the game.
Whether or not Moss has that big game depends on a couple of things. If he walked off the field because he was angry at losing, he should respond big time. If he walked off over a complete dissatisfaction with the coaches and defense, I don't think he will have the big game. If Moss doesn't have the big game, the Vikings have no chance.
The Packers have home field, an effective running game, Brett Favre, and a coaching staff that is aggressive and knows how to win. They also have playoff experience. They have one other thing going for them, the confidence of knowing that they can get the ball back with less than 2 minutes left in the game and easily march for a score. I don't remember a team that has lost more games on last minute drives then the Vikings have this year.
Bottom line is, if the Packers can control Moss and not let him go wild, Green Bay wins easily. If Moss has the big game the Vikings have a chance as long as they are ahead by more than a TD at the end of the game.
Wildcard Weekend: Rams at Seahawks
How do you possibly predict what will happen between these two teams? Neither team has been able to put 3 consecutive good games together, and both have shown flashes of dominance mixed with moments of pure stupidity. Both teams have what it takes to win, but, for some reason, just can't keep it together.
The Rams must do a couple of things to win. Stopping Shaun Alexander isn't one of them. Alexander has run all over them in both games this year. St Louis must use the run game to control the clock, and they must NOT turn the ball over. If they do that, they will easily outscore the Seahawks.
Seattle must play good defense and come up with a couple of turnovers. They also have to use the running game to pound the ball, but they should also be able to go deep on the Rams. If the passing game is clicking, the Seahawks should pull it out.
I predicted earlier this week that the Rams would win and go on to upset Philadelphia. That is a huge stretch, but I am sticking with it. However, if Seattle wins this game, I don't think they have what it takes to go to Philly and win.
The Rams must do a couple of things to win. Stopping Shaun Alexander isn't one of them. Alexander has run all over them in both games this year. St Louis must use the run game to control the clock, and they must NOT turn the ball over. If they do that, they will easily outscore the Seahawks.
Seattle must play good defense and come up with a couple of turnovers. They also have to use the running game to pound the ball, but they should also be able to go deep on the Rams. If the passing game is clicking, the Seahawks should pull it out.
I predicted earlier this week that the Rams would win and go on to upset Philadelphia. That is a huge stretch, but I am sticking with it. However, if Seattle wins this game, I don't think they have what it takes to go to Philly and win.
A Good Place for Good Info
One of my favorite football-related websites is BudGoodeSports.com. If you like stats, this is the place to go. They have a real knack for finding stats that nobody else is talking about.
The latest post shows the decline in the Rams' takeaways and how it relates to margin of victory. They also attribute this dropoff to the loss of Grant Wistrom. Good stuff! Check out their latest posts on the matchups this weekend.
The latest post shows the decline in the Rams' takeaways and how it relates to margin of victory. They also attribute this dropoff to the loss of Grant Wistrom. Good stuff! Check out their latest posts on the matchups this weekend.
Thursday, January 06, 2005
Drew Brees Comeback Player of the Year
The AP named Drew Brees of the Chargers the Comeback Player of the Year. Not a bad pick and everyone on TV so far has been nodding and agreeing. My only complaint here is that Brees was never really a top NFL QB before, so how could he come back?
It would make much more sense to go with Jerome Bettis for this award. Bettis' stats and playing time have been declining steadily for the last few years and this year he was relegated to a backup role. He responded with one of the best year's of his career when Staley went down. Bettis would be a better pick for this award, but I get the impression he would rather have a ring.
It would make much more sense to go with Jerome Bettis for this award. Bettis' stats and playing time have been declining steadily for the last few years and this year he was relegated to a backup role. He responded with one of the best year's of his career when Staley went down. Bettis would be a better pick for this award, but I get the impression he would rather have a ring.
Randy Moss Apologizes, Still Waiting for Tice and McCombs
Randy Moss walked off the field in Washington last week before the final seconds ticked off the clock. He has now apologized to Coach Mike Tice and his teammates. Randy Moss did NOT walk off the field before the game was over, though. The game was over when Tice decided to punt on 4th and short, in Redskins territory, down by 2 scores, with about 8 minutes left in the game.
Culpepper was on the field waiting for the next play. What he got was the punting unit jogging onto the field. A few short minutes later, the cameras panned the Vikings bench and we saw a dejected team that knew the game was over. The only thing lacking was some assistant coach waving a white flag.
I will not defend what Moss did, but I understand his frustration. He wants to win! What Moss did was a direct result of Tice's foolish, ultra-conservative decision to punt the ball and put the game in the hands of an inept defense. But Moss is NOT the problem with this team.
On HBO's Inside the NFL and in Cris Collinsworth's Superbowl.com article there was much discussion about Moss and it was even suggested that Moss might be traded. That is a ridiculous idea! I can think of 31 other teams in the NFL that would love to have a very talented gamebreaker-type receiver who so obviously wants to win a championship!
Do you think the Ravens would like to have Moss? How about Parcells? Imagine him in a Broncos jersey with an aggressive coaching staff that knows how to win! How about the Falcons? Do you think Moss could put them over the top and into consecutive Super Bowls? Trading Moss would make the Vikings a 4-12 or 6-10 team for the next 3 years, at least. The only people benefiting would be the team he is traded to and Randy Moss himself.
The real problem in Minnesota is ownership and, to a lesser degree, coaching. Moss' behavior was not good, but his frustration is real and to ignore it is to ignore the real reason this team has finished the last 2 seasons 3-7.
Everything starts with ownership and Red McCombs has been more concerned about resale value than wins and losses for the past 2 seasons. He hired Tice to save money and has picked up Tice's option for the same reason. There is no commitment to winning at the ownership level, and that is trickling down through the entire organization.
Mike Tice is a good person and a good coach on the practice field. But, he is a terrible gameday coach! He has a 1974 coaching manual and is following it step-by-step. His real problem is inexperience and there is no longer someone above him to learn from. Going for it on 4th and short in the 4th quarter in Washington should have been a no-brainer. Tice did not seem to even consider it. And why didn't offensive coordinator Linehan suggest it?
The coaching staff is the lowest paid in the league and is fully staffed by castoffs from other teams. The result is consistent mediocrity.
The experts at HBO's Inside the NFL and at Superbowl.com have spent a great deal of time discussing Randy Moss, but not one second talking about the real problems in Minnesota. They should watch the complete Vikings replays for the games at Chicago and Washington before criticizing Moss too much. Those games were two of the worst-coached games you will ever see.
Randy Moss apologized for his mistake. How long will we have to wait for McCombs and Tice to apologize for theirs?
Culpepper was on the field waiting for the next play. What he got was the punting unit jogging onto the field. A few short minutes later, the cameras panned the Vikings bench and we saw a dejected team that knew the game was over. The only thing lacking was some assistant coach waving a white flag.
I will not defend what Moss did, but I understand his frustration. He wants to win! What Moss did was a direct result of Tice's foolish, ultra-conservative decision to punt the ball and put the game in the hands of an inept defense. But Moss is NOT the problem with this team.
On HBO's Inside the NFL and in Cris Collinsworth's Superbowl.com article there was much discussion about Moss and it was even suggested that Moss might be traded. That is a ridiculous idea! I can think of 31 other teams in the NFL that would love to have a very talented gamebreaker-type receiver who so obviously wants to win a championship!
Do you think the Ravens would like to have Moss? How about Parcells? Imagine him in a Broncos jersey with an aggressive coaching staff that knows how to win! How about the Falcons? Do you think Moss could put them over the top and into consecutive Super Bowls? Trading Moss would make the Vikings a 4-12 or 6-10 team for the next 3 years, at least. The only people benefiting would be the team he is traded to and Randy Moss himself.
The real problem in Minnesota is ownership and, to a lesser degree, coaching. Moss' behavior was not good, but his frustration is real and to ignore it is to ignore the real reason this team has finished the last 2 seasons 3-7.
Everything starts with ownership and Red McCombs has been more concerned about resale value than wins and losses for the past 2 seasons. He hired Tice to save money and has picked up Tice's option for the same reason. There is no commitment to winning at the ownership level, and that is trickling down through the entire organization.
Mike Tice is a good person and a good coach on the practice field. But, he is a terrible gameday coach! He has a 1974 coaching manual and is following it step-by-step. His real problem is inexperience and there is no longer someone above him to learn from. Going for it on 4th and short in the 4th quarter in Washington should have been a no-brainer. Tice did not seem to even consider it. And why didn't offensive coordinator Linehan suggest it?
The coaching staff is the lowest paid in the league and is fully staffed by castoffs from other teams. The result is consistent mediocrity.
The experts at HBO's Inside the NFL and at Superbowl.com have spent a great deal of time discussing Randy Moss, but not one second talking about the real problems in Minnesota. They should watch the complete Vikings replays for the games at Chicago and Washington before criticizing Moss too much. Those games were two of the worst-coached games you will ever see.
Randy Moss apologized for his mistake. How long will we have to wait for McCombs and Tice to apologize for theirs?
Wednesday, January 05, 2005
Backing Into the Playoffs
Phil Simms has a pretty good article here about teams "backing into the playoffs". He's a little horked about that cliche! Simms is a former QB who played in a few post-season games and the Super Bowl, so you have to respect what he says about this. But I would disagree on a couple of points.
First, he uses the Jets and Vikings as examples of backing into the playoffs. Here's a note to Phil and the New York media; 10-6 and losing your last game on the road in OT to another playoff team is not backing into the playoffs! The Jets earned their way in, so Phil has a point here.
But, on the other hand, the Vikings went 3-7 in the last 10 games, and one of those wins came when the Lions mishandled an extra point attempt that would have sent the game into overtime. The Vikings DID back into the playoffs.
Using the term "backing into the playoffs", in my opinion, isn't predicting how a team will play in the post-season. It is a criticism of how a team is playing when the pressure is on.
Simms goes on to say that QBs and others don't need "momentum" going into the playoffs, so there is no reason not to rest those players whenever possible. I agree completely with this, but I think some teams may take too much time off. It is not momentum that QBs and receivers have to worry about. It is timing and intensity. Take one week off and you don't lose much.
But here is where Phil lost me. Philadelphia hasn't played a meaningful game in 3 weeks and it will be 2 more before they play again. They (the starters) took the last 2 games off, completely. In 4 or 5 weeks off McNabb and Co will lose some of the intensity they had and will lose a lot of their timing. TO caught the majority of passes during the season and he won't be there for the next 2 games. Do the other receivers have their timing down with McNabb? Did he spend time in any games after TO went down figuring out who the go-to guy is? Does he know who to trust?
Phil Simms knows what he is talking about when it comes to taking time off to rest at the end of a season. But Simms never took a month off and then jumped into a do-or-die playoff game. I think the Eagles will falter in the playoffs because of their lackadaisical approach to the game the last 3 weeks.
First, he uses the Jets and Vikings as examples of backing into the playoffs. Here's a note to Phil and the New York media; 10-6 and losing your last game on the road in OT to another playoff team is not backing into the playoffs! The Jets earned their way in, so Phil has a point here.
But, on the other hand, the Vikings went 3-7 in the last 10 games, and one of those wins came when the Lions mishandled an extra point attempt that would have sent the game into overtime. The Vikings DID back into the playoffs.
Using the term "backing into the playoffs", in my opinion, isn't predicting how a team will play in the post-season. It is a criticism of how a team is playing when the pressure is on.
Simms goes on to say that QBs and others don't need "momentum" going into the playoffs, so there is no reason not to rest those players whenever possible. I agree completely with this, but I think some teams may take too much time off. It is not momentum that QBs and receivers have to worry about. It is timing and intensity. Take one week off and you don't lose much.
But here is where Phil lost me. Philadelphia hasn't played a meaningful game in 3 weeks and it will be 2 more before they play again. They (the starters) took the last 2 games off, completely. In 4 or 5 weeks off McNabb and Co will lose some of the intensity they had and will lose a lot of their timing. TO caught the majority of passes during the season and he won't be there for the next 2 games. Do the other receivers have their timing down with McNabb? Did he spend time in any games after TO went down figuring out who the go-to guy is? Does he know who to trust?
Phil Simms knows what he is talking about when it comes to taking time off to rest at the end of a season. But Simms never took a month off and then jumped into a do-or-die playoff game. I think the Eagles will falter in the playoffs because of their lackadaisical approach to the game the last 3 weeks.
Playoff Predictions
AFC Playoffs
Wildcard Weekend
NY Jets at San Diego Chargers -- Chargers
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts -- Broncos (just wishful thinking?)
Divisional Playoffs
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers -- Steelers (I might be hopeful, but I'm not stupid)
San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots -- Patriots
AFC Championship
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers -- Pittsburgh Steelers
NFC Playoffs
Wildcard Weekend
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers -- Packers, easily
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks -- Rams
Divisional Playoffs
St Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles -- Rams
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons -- Falcons
NFC Championship
St Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons -- Falcons
Super Bowl
Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers -- Steelers
There, I made my picks and I'll stick by them. Picking the Broncos might be crazy, but pride will play a part here. The Broncos remember what happened there last year and will be looking for payback. It all depends on the Broncos running game and how much pressure the defense can put on Manning.
Picking the Rams to beat the Eagles is a huge stretch, but I think Philly has lost their MVP and hasn't played a real football game in over a month. They will be ripe for an upset. If they get past their first round game, their chance of advancing to the Super Bowl increases, obviously, but I still think the Falcons will knock them off.
No matter what happens, I feel confident that Atlanta goes to the Super Bowl and that Pittsburgh and New England fight it out for the AFC Championship. If Pittsburgh is full strength and playing well, nobody will beat them this year.
Wildcard Weekend
NY Jets at San Diego Chargers -- Chargers
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts -- Broncos (just wishful thinking?)
Divisional Playoffs
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers -- Steelers (I might be hopeful, but I'm not stupid)
San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots -- Patriots
AFC Championship
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers -- Pittsburgh Steelers
NFC Playoffs
Wildcard Weekend
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers -- Packers, easily
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks -- Rams
Divisional Playoffs
St Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles -- Rams
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons -- Falcons
NFC Championship
St Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons -- Falcons
Super Bowl
Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers -- Steelers
There, I made my picks and I'll stick by them. Picking the Broncos might be crazy, but pride will play a part here. The Broncos remember what happened there last year and will be looking for payback. It all depends on the Broncos running game and how much pressure the defense can put on Manning.
Picking the Rams to beat the Eagles is a huge stretch, but I think Philly has lost their MVP and hasn't played a real football game in over a month. They will be ripe for an upset. If they get past their first round game, their chance of advancing to the Super Bowl increases, obviously, but I still think the Falcons will knock them off.
No matter what happens, I feel confident that Atlanta goes to the Super Bowl and that Pittsburgh and New England fight it out for the AFC Championship. If Pittsburgh is full strength and playing well, nobody will beat them this year.
USC 55 - OU 19
USC did look every bit the national champions last night as they annihilated the Sooners 55-19. Of course, the Sooners contributed with a Chernobyl-type meltdown. The Trojans can now celebrate their 2nd national championship and look forward to possibly continuing their streak next year.
Now think about this; the Trojans are #1, but have not played Auburn or Utah. I believe the Trojans are capable of beating those two, but we will never, ever know for sure. Auburn played a very good Virgina Tech team and looked very good in beating them, except for one drive and one big pass play. Utah dominated their bowl game.
Would Auburn or Utah lay down and die for USC the way Oklahoma did? Not Auburn. They were ready to play. After last night's blowout, Auburn and Utah now have even more legitimate complaints about the BCS system. And 2 more teams of disappointed athletes are left wondering, "What if?".
The only team that really knows whether or not they are legitimate champions is the Oklahoma Sooners. They know they are NOT.
Now think about this; the Trojans are #1, but have not played Auburn or Utah. I believe the Trojans are capable of beating those two, but we will never, ever know for sure. Auburn played a very good Virgina Tech team and looked very good in beating them, except for one drive and one big pass play. Utah dominated their bowl game.
Would Auburn or Utah lay down and die for USC the way Oklahoma did? Not Auburn. They were ready to play. After last night's blowout, Auburn and Utah now have even more legitimate complaints about the BCS system. And 2 more teams of disappointed athletes are left wondering, "What if?".
The only team that really knows whether or not they are legitimate champions is the Oklahoma Sooners. They know they are NOT.
Tuesday, January 04, 2005
Coach of the Year
Yeah, it's that time of year when everyone does their end of year awards. I don't intend to do much of that, but coaches deserve some credit. I will try to be a little different and offer up a few different categories.
Maybe Next Year
These are the coaches who made good progress this year and/or should make good progress next year. These are the guys you hear very little about, but are building future winners.
1. Mike Mularkey, Buffalo -- A nice run at the end very nearly put the Bills in the playoffs. The defense is sound and the offense will be one year more experienced. A good start next year would give them a chance for 10 wins.
2. Steve Mariucci, Detroit -- Remember how bad the Lions were 2 or 3 years ago? Leno was making fun of them nightly! They were 6-10 this year, but their last 3 losses were by 1, 3, and 5 points. Change those losses to wins and they are in the playoff hunt. They had a tendency to get blown out, but they are definitely headed in the right direction.
3. Joe Gibbs, Washington -- The defense is solid, the running game will improve, and they have most of the pieces in place for a decent title run. They just need to improve at QB and receiver. A healthy Portis should explode next year.
4. Dennis Green, Arizona -- The Cardinals are no longer a doormat. Green has them playing good defense and most of their losses were by a TD or less. In that division it won't take much improvement to win. Green just needs to find a long-term solution at QB and RB positions.
5. Nick Saban, Miami -- I know he hasn't coached a down in the NFL, but he is taking over a Dolphins team that has a very good defense and a lot of potential on offense. If he improves the offensive line dramatically, gets the team healthy, and settles on a decent QB, he could find that he jumped on board with a playoff team in his first season.
Honorable Mention
1. Mart Schottenheimer, San Diego -- A lot of people think he should be the coach of the year. He did a great job getting the Chargers on top of the AFC West and in position to make some noise in the playoffs, especially now that Elway is retired (Elway ended many a Marty playoff run). Schottenheimer has built a solid defense and now has the offense he always wanted; solid running game, smart QB, and good receivers. He'll be back next year, too.
2. Tony Dungy, Indianapolis -- The only thing between the Colts and the Lombardi Trophy is their own defense. Dungy did a good job racking up 12 wins, but needs that defense to move up.
3. Jim Mora, Atlanta -- The Falcons changed coaches and offensive and defensive styles, then won 11 games and the NFC South. Not bad. And if they pull an upset and get to the Super Bowl, a lot of people will want to change their votes.
They Just Keep Winning
1. Bill Belichick, New England
2. Andy Reid, Philadelphia
3. Mike Shanahan, Denver
4. Mike Sherman, Green Bay
Underperformed
1. Mike Tice, Minnesota
2. Dick Vermeil, Kansas City
3. Bill Parcells, Dallas
4. Tom Coughlin, New York Giants
5. Jim Haslett, New Orleans
Coach of the Year
Bill Cowher, Pittsburgh Steelers
There can be little debate about this one! Cowher keeps building great defenses and this is one of his best. The aggressive, hard-hitting style fits perfectly into what you think of when you think back to the Steelers' glory years. Next, he brought in Staley and convinced the Bus to play a role on the team, rather than starring. Bettis responded with character and showed that team is more important than stats if you want the ring (take note Shaun).
And who else but Cowher (maybe one or two others) could bring in a rookie and win 13 straight? Roethlisberger is not flashy and is not putting up big numbers, but Cowher has him playing smart football. If 15-1 doesn't deserve coach of the year, what does it take?
Maybe Next Year
These are the coaches who made good progress this year and/or should make good progress next year. These are the guys you hear very little about, but are building future winners.
1. Mike Mularkey, Buffalo -- A nice run at the end very nearly put the Bills in the playoffs. The defense is sound and the offense will be one year more experienced. A good start next year would give them a chance for 10 wins.
2. Steve Mariucci, Detroit -- Remember how bad the Lions were 2 or 3 years ago? Leno was making fun of them nightly! They were 6-10 this year, but their last 3 losses were by 1, 3, and 5 points. Change those losses to wins and they are in the playoff hunt. They had a tendency to get blown out, but they are definitely headed in the right direction.
3. Joe Gibbs, Washington -- The defense is solid, the running game will improve, and they have most of the pieces in place for a decent title run. They just need to improve at QB and receiver. A healthy Portis should explode next year.
4. Dennis Green, Arizona -- The Cardinals are no longer a doormat. Green has them playing good defense and most of their losses were by a TD or less. In that division it won't take much improvement to win. Green just needs to find a long-term solution at QB and RB positions.
5. Nick Saban, Miami -- I know he hasn't coached a down in the NFL, but he is taking over a Dolphins team that has a very good defense and a lot of potential on offense. If he improves the offensive line dramatically, gets the team healthy, and settles on a decent QB, he could find that he jumped on board with a playoff team in his first season.
Honorable Mention
1. Mart Schottenheimer, San Diego -- A lot of people think he should be the coach of the year. He did a great job getting the Chargers on top of the AFC West and in position to make some noise in the playoffs, especially now that Elway is retired (Elway ended many a Marty playoff run). Schottenheimer has built a solid defense and now has the offense he always wanted; solid running game, smart QB, and good receivers. He'll be back next year, too.
2. Tony Dungy, Indianapolis -- The only thing between the Colts and the Lombardi Trophy is their own defense. Dungy did a good job racking up 12 wins, but needs that defense to move up.
3. Jim Mora, Atlanta -- The Falcons changed coaches and offensive and defensive styles, then won 11 games and the NFC South. Not bad. And if they pull an upset and get to the Super Bowl, a lot of people will want to change their votes.
They Just Keep Winning
1. Bill Belichick, New England
2. Andy Reid, Philadelphia
3. Mike Shanahan, Denver
4. Mike Sherman, Green Bay
Underperformed
1. Mike Tice, Minnesota
2. Dick Vermeil, Kansas City
3. Bill Parcells, Dallas
4. Tom Coughlin, New York Giants
5. Jim Haslett, New Orleans
Coach of the Year
Bill Cowher, Pittsburgh Steelers
There can be little debate about this one! Cowher keeps building great defenses and this is one of his best. The aggressive, hard-hitting style fits perfectly into what you think of when you think back to the Steelers' glory years. Next, he brought in Staley and convinced the Bus to play a role on the team, rather than starring. Bettis responded with character and showed that team is more important than stats if you want the ring (take note Shaun).
And who else but Cowher (maybe one or two others) could bring in a rookie and win 13 straight? Roethlisberger is not flashy and is not putting up big numbers, but Cowher has him playing smart football. If 15-1 doesn't deserve coach of the year, what does it take?
Monday, January 03, 2005
Shaun Alexander Miffed
Shaun Alexander of the Seahawks is miffed. He lost the rushing title to Curtis Martin by a single yard.
From MSNBC:The focus of Alexander's frustration was what proved to be the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. Faced with a second-and-goal from the Falcons' 1-yard line with 4 1/2 minutes to play, the call was for a sneak by quarterback Matt Hasselbeck.
Not a handoff to Alexander.
I wonder how many times Alexander ran out of bounds rather than fight for the extra yard? He's a great back who works hard and all that, but apparently losing the rushing title was more important than winning their division!
Get a grip, Shaun!
From MSNBC:The focus of Alexander's frustration was what proved to be the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. Faced with a second-and-goal from the Falcons' 1-yard line with 4 1/2 minutes to play, the call was for a sneak by quarterback Matt Hasselbeck.
Not a handoff to Alexander.
"This is the first time I've ever been back-stabbed in my life," Alexander said in the Qwest Field locker room after the Seahawks won the NFC West title by outlasting the Atlanta Falcons 28-26.
Apparently he means Holmgren did the stabbing. Click here for the complete story.I wonder how many times Alexander ran out of bounds rather than fight for the extra yard? He's a great back who works hard and all that, but apparently losing the rushing title was more important than winning their division!
Get a grip, Shaun!
Um, Excuse Me, Joe... Could We Get That Trophy Back?
In 2003, Bill Parcells came out of retirement to coach the Cowboys. Many sportswriters and prognosticators immediately crowned him coach of the year and predicted Super Bowls galore for Dallas. Bill got them to the playoffs, but the Cowboys fell flat. And this year was not a good one for Bill.
This year it was the Washington Redskins that lured a retired superstar coach back to the locker room. Joe Gibbs took over and everyone began stumbling all over themselves to give him the Lombardi Trophy. Turns out it is not his after all.
Gibbs is a great coach and I think the Redskins will be a force next year in the NFC. If you saw his team against the Minnesota Vikings Sunday you got a glimpse of what the Redskins will be like next year. They dominated the Vikings with a punishing running game and used an aggressive, blitzing defense to shut down Culpepper and Co. It was vintage Gibbs. I was screaming at the televised Mike Tice to stack the line with 8 defenders, but that might not have worked, either. "Do you hear that, Mr Anderson? That is the sound of inevitability."
We must also remember that the Vikings' defense couldn't stop Cub Scout Troop B from marching 10 yards down a narrow trail. But Gibbs made his point. Expect more of the same next year.
All of the experts were a year or two early with their Super Bowl predictions for the Cowboys and Redskins, but expect the Redskins and Cowboys to be much improved in 2005. The Eagles won't be wrapping up the division in Week 13 next season!
This year it was the Washington Redskins that lured a retired superstar coach back to the locker room. Joe Gibbs took over and everyone began stumbling all over themselves to give him the Lombardi Trophy. Turns out it is not his after all.
Gibbs is a great coach and I think the Redskins will be a force next year in the NFC. If you saw his team against the Minnesota Vikings Sunday you got a glimpse of what the Redskins will be like next year. They dominated the Vikings with a punishing running game and used an aggressive, blitzing defense to shut down Culpepper and Co. It was vintage Gibbs. I was screaming at the televised Mike Tice to stack the line with 8 defenders, but that might not have worked, either. "Do you hear that, Mr Anderson? That is the sound of inevitability."
We must also remember that the Vikings' defense couldn't stop Cub Scout Troop B from marching 10 yards down a narrow trail. But Gibbs made his point. Expect more of the same next year.
All of the experts were a year or two early with their Super Bowl predictions for the Cowboys and Redskins, but expect the Redskins and Cowboys to be much improved in 2005. The Eagles won't be wrapping up the division in Week 13 next season!
Possible Coaching Changes
John Clayton had a good column about possible coaching changes that may be coming in the offseason. Here is my two cents' worth.
Miami and Cleveland are already making changes. Cleveland is dragging their feet, so it looks like more of the same from them. Miami has already picked up Nick Saban, whom Denver fans might recognize as the son (I believe) of Coach 'half-a-loaf'. Saban is taking over a team that I believe will be ready to compete for a division title next year. The defense is good and an improved o-line would really take them to the next level.
Herman Edwards is safe in New York, but should look into a new offensive coordinator. He should also rethink his two-point conversion strategory, as it could have cost him. You think the Saints' fans are a bit miffed about that decision?
What's going on in Jacksonville? Jack Del Rio proved he is a good coach and deserves more time with the Jags, but he seems intent on messing things up. Hopefully for Jags fans it will be the same staff next year.
Denver - I touched on this in an earlier post. I believe Pat Bowlen and Mike Shanahan have a long-term plan that includes Shanahan in a front office position and Gary Kubiak as head coach. What else could explain the lack of interest in Gary Kubiak as a head coach, and Kubiak's lack of interest in other jobs? The real question is when will it happen?
Oakland - Speculation is running rampant here. Al Davis is just stupid enough to fire a proven winner after only a year, so it wouldn't surprise anyone if he did let Norv Turner go. If he does, it almost guarantees continued Raider mediocrity for the next few years. Fine with me. I love watching the Broncos (and every other team) stomp on the Raiders (the MNF snow game is blocked from memory).
Tom Coughlin had the Giants in the playoff race and decided it was time to start Eli. Goodbye playoffs! Is this another case of sacrificing winning to bring along a high-contract QB? If it was strictly the coach's decision, he should be fired. His job is to win and get to the playoffs. If it was the owners' decision, their free agents will think twice about playing there for another year. Either way, it was a bad decision. Warner will move on and they will have a lousy backup QB next year. And another losing season.
Minnesota Vikings - If you have been reading this blog for a while you know how I feel about the ownership and coaching staff of the Vikings. The owners are cheapskates, the coaches are inexperienced and unwilling (or unable) to adapt. Tice's contract option has been picked up for next year and all appears gloomy. But after the Vikings performance in Washington and Tice's horrible decision to punt the ball away late in the 4th quarter when down by two scores, you have to wonder if he is truly safe. A bad showing in Green Bay could be the last straw. Red McCombs needs to find a real football guy and let him run the team.
Detroit - Mooch is safe. He is building a good team that will be able to compete in the NFC very soon. He is not building a purely "dome-team". He has a power runner and is trying to build up the defense. I think, in a couple of years, he might have a great team that can win outdoors as well as in.
New Orleans - Haslett saved his job with a 4-game winning streak that very nearly put him in the playoffs. But you have to ask; where was that fire in the first 13 weeks? He can't afford another year like this one.
Seattle - Division champs don't usually make changes. But a third loss to the Rams might force the issue. The Seahawks did NOT look good outside of the Metrodome (they beat the Vikes) in November and December. I still believe Favre made Holmgren look like a better coach than he is.
St Louis - All NFL teams have a "get back" coach. Someone who constantly tells the players to get back off the field after big plays. The Rams need a "think-about-this-Mike" coach. This guy would just follow Martz around the sidelines and, whenever Martz starts to do something stupid, this guy could just say "Think about this Mike". That would be Martz' clue to stop, think, and then do the right thing. Martz is safe in St Louis, but their patience is wearing thin. He needs to improve his gametime coaching and decision-making.
San Francisco - If Dennis Erickson leaves, it will be a favor to him. The 49ers screwed him over and are now trying to blame him for the debacle. The new owners have no financial commitment to winning, so replacing Erickson with a quality coach will be difficult. Who wants to take over a team that refuses to even approach the salary cap and instead loads up with second rate talent? What free agents will stay?
Miami and Cleveland are already making changes. Cleveland is dragging their feet, so it looks like more of the same from them. Miami has already picked up Nick Saban, whom Denver fans might recognize as the son (I believe) of Coach 'half-a-loaf'. Saban is taking over a team that I believe will be ready to compete for a division title next year. The defense is good and an improved o-line would really take them to the next level.
Herman Edwards is safe in New York, but should look into a new offensive coordinator. He should also rethink his two-point conversion strategory, as it could have cost him. You think the Saints' fans are a bit miffed about that decision?
What's going on in Jacksonville? Jack Del Rio proved he is a good coach and deserves more time with the Jags, but he seems intent on messing things up. Hopefully for Jags fans it will be the same staff next year.
Denver - I touched on this in an earlier post. I believe Pat Bowlen and Mike Shanahan have a long-term plan that includes Shanahan in a front office position and Gary Kubiak as head coach. What else could explain the lack of interest in Gary Kubiak as a head coach, and Kubiak's lack of interest in other jobs? The real question is when will it happen?
Oakland - Speculation is running rampant here. Al Davis is just stupid enough to fire a proven winner after only a year, so it wouldn't surprise anyone if he did let Norv Turner go. If he does, it almost guarantees continued Raider mediocrity for the next few years. Fine with me. I love watching the Broncos (and every other team) stomp on the Raiders (the MNF snow game is blocked from memory).
Tom Coughlin had the Giants in the playoff race and decided it was time to start Eli. Goodbye playoffs! Is this another case of sacrificing winning to bring along a high-contract QB? If it was strictly the coach's decision, he should be fired. His job is to win and get to the playoffs. If it was the owners' decision, their free agents will think twice about playing there for another year. Either way, it was a bad decision. Warner will move on and they will have a lousy backup QB next year. And another losing season.
Minnesota Vikings - If you have been reading this blog for a while you know how I feel about the ownership and coaching staff of the Vikings. The owners are cheapskates, the coaches are inexperienced and unwilling (or unable) to adapt. Tice's contract option has been picked up for next year and all appears gloomy. But after the Vikings performance in Washington and Tice's horrible decision to punt the ball away late in the 4th quarter when down by two scores, you have to wonder if he is truly safe. A bad showing in Green Bay could be the last straw. Red McCombs needs to find a real football guy and let him run the team.
Detroit - Mooch is safe. He is building a good team that will be able to compete in the NFC very soon. He is not building a purely "dome-team". He has a power runner and is trying to build up the defense. I think, in a couple of years, he might have a great team that can win outdoors as well as in.
New Orleans - Haslett saved his job with a 4-game winning streak that very nearly put him in the playoffs. But you have to ask; where was that fire in the first 13 weeks? He can't afford another year like this one.
Seattle - Division champs don't usually make changes. But a third loss to the Rams might force the issue. The Seahawks did NOT look good outside of the Metrodome (they beat the Vikes) in November and December. I still believe Favre made Holmgren look like a better coach than he is.
St Louis - All NFL teams have a "get back" coach. Someone who constantly tells the players to get back off the field after big plays. The Rams need a "think-about-this-Mike" coach. This guy would just follow Martz around the sidelines and, whenever Martz starts to do something stupid, this guy could just say "Think about this Mike". That would be Martz' clue to stop, think, and then do the right thing. Martz is safe in St Louis, but their patience is wearing thin. He needs to improve his gametime coaching and decision-making.
San Francisco - If Dennis Erickson leaves, it will be a favor to him. The 49ers screwed him over and are now trying to blame him for the debacle. The new owners have no financial commitment to winning, so replacing Erickson with a quality coach will be difficult. Who wants to take over a team that refuses to even approach the salary cap and instead loads up with second rate talent? What free agents will stay?
Sunday, January 02, 2005
Broncos Beat Up Colts' Second Stringers!!
The Denver Broncos dominated the Colts' backups after an early scare, and rolled into the playoffs. And for the second year in a row, the Broncos beat the Colts to earn a playoff spot and then had to travel to Indy to play the Colts in the first round.
There has been a lot of criticism of Jake Plummer in Denver this year. After all, all he did was set a team record (Elway's) for passing yards, win 10 games, lead his team to the playoffs for the 2nd straight year, and nearly break Elway's team record for passing TDs in a season. There were some mistakes and bonehead plays, but Jake came through when it counted. And don't forget, three of the Broncos losses came when a running back fumbled in the red zone in Jacksonville, and when the defense allowed the Falcons and Raiders to run up big scores. Plummer led this team to the playoffs, like it or not.
Now the challenge is for the Broncos to shutdown, or at least keep up with, the Manning TD machine. Not very likely, but you never know in this league. Champ Bailey was brought in just for these kinds of teams. We'll see if he was worth it.
There has been a lot of criticism of Jake Plummer in Denver this year. After all, all he did was set a team record (Elway's) for passing yards, win 10 games, lead his team to the playoffs for the 2nd straight year, and nearly break Elway's team record for passing TDs in a season. There were some mistakes and bonehead plays, but Jake came through when it counted. And don't forget, three of the Broncos losses came when a running back fumbled in the red zone in Jacksonville, and when the defense allowed the Falcons and Raiders to run up big scores. Plummer led this team to the playoffs, like it or not.
Now the challenge is for the Broncos to shutdown, or at least keep up with, the Manning TD machine. Not very likely, but you never know in this league. Champ Bailey was brought in just for these kinds of teams. We'll see if he was worth it.
FFL Champion, Finally
Yours truly finally won his FFL League's Championship today!! It has been a dry spell of nearly a decade since I won it all. There were some close calls and good years, but I always seemed to fall short.
This year I made some critical pick-ups when some of my starters were injured that put me over the top. Rueben Droughns, Larry Johnson, and the Bills defense/special teams carried me through the end of the season and playoffs. None of them were even on my team before week 8.
And, of course, Daunte Culpepper led the way with the best statistical season of his career.
It is a fine day, indeed!!
This year I made some critical pick-ups when some of my starters were injured that put me over the top. Rueben Droughns, Larry Johnson, and the Bills defense/special teams carried me through the end of the season and playoffs. None of them were even on my team before week 8.
And, of course, Daunte Culpepper led the way with the best statistical season of his career.
It is a fine day, indeed!!
Rams Beat Jets in OT, Reach Playoffs
If you had told me that a critical coaching mistake would decide the outcome of this game, I would have bet money it would be Mike Martz. But it was Herm Edwards who made the mistake by going for a 2-point conversion in the 3rd quarter, with the lead. It allowed the Rams to convert a 2-pointer of their own in the 4th quarter and then play for a tying field goal, instead of forcing them to go for the TD.
It was a fun game to watch and both teams played well. There was a playoff atmosphere. But in the end, the Jets showed they are still not in that elite class of teams. And the Rams showed that they can still play wide-open and win against good teams.
The Jets' loss did not affect their playoff position, however, as the Bills lost to the Steelers. The Rams eliminated the Saints and clinched the final NFC playoff spot for themselves.
It was a fun game to watch and both teams played well. There was a playoff atmosphere. But in the end, the Jets showed they are still not in that elite class of teams. And the Rams showed that they can still play wide-open and win against good teams.
The Jets' loss did not affect their playoff position, however, as the Bills lost to the Steelers. The Rams eliminated the Saints and clinched the final NFC playoff spot for themselves.
Panthers Lose to Saints, Neither Gets Playoffs
There are two teams in the NFC that played like playoff teams down the stretch. But neither of them will be in the playoffs. The Saints played a great game at Carolina and beat the Panthers soundly. Aaron Brooks looked super and McAllister ran wild.
Most football fans would much rather see the Saints and Panthers as the wildcard teams in the NFC. Instead we get the Vikings and Rams. There are now two 8-8 teams in the NFC playoffs and one 9-7 team. None of them would be close to the playoffs in the AFC.
The fortunes of the two conferences have sure reversed in the last decade!
Most football fans would much rather see the Saints and Panthers as the wildcard teams in the NFC. Instead we get the Vikings and Rams. There are now two 8-8 teams in the NFC playoffs and one 9-7 team. None of them would be close to the playoffs in the AFC.
The fortunes of the two conferences have sure reversed in the last decade!
Vikings Stumble Into Playoffs
It's 4th and 5, you're at midfield, you're defense hasn't stopped the opponent all day long, and you need 2 scores to clinch a playoff spot in the final 8 minutes. What do you do? Well, if you're Mike Tice and the Vikings, you punt the ball away and then watch helplessly as the other team drives effortlessly down the field and consumes most of the remaining time on the clock.
When the Vikings got the ball back with less than a minute to play, they immediately threw a 2-yard pass. 2 yards!!
The Vikings lost their way into the playoffs on a botched Lions extra point attempt 2 weeks ago and a Panthers loss at home to the Saints on Sunday. Now they have to go to Green Bay and play the hated Packers in the playoffs.
And the Head Coach in charge of this fiasco was given a contract extension in the middle of the collapse! Now we have to watch this train wreck for another week.
When the Vikings got the ball back with less than a minute to play, they immediately threw a 2-yard pass. 2 yards!!
The Vikings lost their way into the playoffs on a botched Lions extra point attempt 2 weeks ago and a Panthers loss at home to the Saints on Sunday. Now they have to go to Green Bay and play the hated Packers in the playoffs.
And the Head Coach in charge of this fiasco was given a contract extension in the middle of the collapse! Now we have to watch this train wreck for another week.
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