With all apologies to NFC teams and fans, the NFL Championship is going to be decided on the field in Pittsburgh. These are the two best teams in the league. You can argue if you want to, but you will be wrong. These teams had the 2nd (Pitt) and 4th(NE) highest strength-of-victory rankings in the league.
To win it all, a team must be able to run and play defense. The Steelers are 2nd in rushing and 1st in defense. The Patriots are 7th in rushing and 9th in defense. Pittsburgh and New England match up very well, and this game could be one of the best conference championship games ever. Pittsburgh has the edge in rushing and defense, but New England has the edge in coaching and special teams.
The Patriots lost 2 games where they failed to get an interception. That is a big key for them. New England must win the turnover battle to win this game. They were minus-4 in that department in their first meeting. They will also have to stop Staley and Bettis. The Steelers outrushed the Patriots in their first meeting 221-5!
The Patriots were able to pass against the Steelers in their first game, but they were playing from behind. They will have to be more balanced this time around. Corey Dillon needs to have a big game to keep the pressure off of Brady and the passing game.
For the Steelers, the formula is simple; run the ball. Pittsburgh must run and avoid 3rd-and-long situations. That is what the Patriots feed on. They must be patient and not force the passing game. Duce Staley is healthy and motivated, and Bettis has never been this fresh at the end of a season, so I expect Pittsburgh will come out running and not stop. I don't think anyone, including the Patriots, can stop their running game.
The Steelers defense is the best there is, and they should be motivated after listening all week to how great the Patriots' defense is. They will come out aggressive and keep pressure on Brady. And Dillon has never had a great game in Pittsburgh. The test for the Steelers will be handling all the different things Belichick throws at them. They must not let New England get a quick lead.
Special teams might play a big role here. It nearly cost the Steelers the game last week. Look for both teams to have something special for their special teams.
Belichick gets a lot of well-deserved credit for his game plans and how he uses his players and changes things up. But don't forget that Cowher usually puts in some special plays of his own. And he has a knack for being aggressive at the right times.
I know that most people are picking the Patriots to repeat. But I think that will only help to motivate Pittsburgh. The Steelers have the home field, the best defense, and the best running game. If Pittsburgh wins the turnover battle, they will win this game. The only way they lose is if Big Ben throws a couple of interceptions, and I think Cowher will do what he can to avoid obvious passing situations.
My pick is Pittsburgh, 24-10. But it will be close into the 4th quarter.
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