Looking at the Patriots' injuries and their backfield situation, it is tempting to say the Colts will go there and beat them. But to do that, you would have to ignore some pretty big factors. Mostly, you would have to ignore what Bill Belichick does, and that is to prepare his team to win in any situation. Nobody is better at covering weaknesses and emphasizing strengths than Belichick.
To beat the Colts, you must control the clock. I said this last week about the Broncos, and they failed miserably, losing 49-27. New England won't be as cooperative as Denver was. I expect to see a lot of Corey Dillon and the Patriot Tight Ends, and I expect to see some long, ball-control drives. I also expect Belichick to go for 4th-and-short to keep some drives going.
The key for the Patriots will be how the defense holds up. If the defense can get a couple of turnovers, the Patriots should win. They need to get fast pressure on Manning. I am not talking about bringing a lot of people on the rush, I mean getting someone into the backfield quickly and forcing Manning to throw early or try to run. They will also have to change their coverages and do some things the Colts haven't seen.
New England has left their field uncovered all week (you gotta love it), so the Colts receivers will be slower here than at home. That will really help the Patriot defenders.
The Colts are playing as well as they ever have, so their confidence has to be very high. The Pats' home-field advantage will only slow Indy down, it may not be enough, though. Manning has so many weapons and the Pats are so banged up that you have to believe that the Colts will score 24-35 points. The key for the Colts' offense is to hold onto the ball and not turn it over. If Manning throws interceptions or they put the ball on the ground, New England will make them pay.
The Colts defense can expect to see Dillon about 25-30 times. If they don't stop him and force some 3rd-and-long situations, they will find themselves playing even up, rather than playing with a lead. That means fewer sacks and a tired Colts defense at the end of the game. And that means New England scores easily in the 4th quarter, when it counts. The Colts must stop or slow the Pats' running game.
There are two things to watch here. If turnovers favor New England and Dillon breaks 100 yards, New England will win. If the Colts hold onto the ball and slow Dillon down, the Colts will win. This one could very easily be a blowout for the Colts, but I think the Patriots will keep it close and win it in the 4th quarter. Remember, the Pats have a clutch kicker, and the Colts have an indoor kicker. It may come down to that.
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