Tuesday, January 18, 2005

Manning Won’t Win Until Colts Change

In a previous article I wrote about the Colts’ situation. Now that they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs again, everybody wants to blame Peyton Manning. But Manning is not the problem in Indianapolis. In fact, it is the Colts’ management that is holding Peyton back.

If you want to score a lot of points, put people in the stands, win 10-11 games a year, and make the playoffs annually, the Colts have the right formula. If you want to win playoff games and go to the Super Bowl, the Colts have it all wrong. And it is management that has built this team, and it is Manning who will continue to lose playoff games with it.

If you look at the final 4 teams in the playoffs now you see 3 teams with a defensive ranking in the top 10 and another (Atlanta) in the top 15. Indy’s defense is 29th. In team rushing stats, 3 teams are in the top 10 and only one team (Philly) has fewer rushing yards than Indy.

The formula for winning in the playoffs and Super Bowl is rushing and defense. The Colts do not excel at either, and won’t for the foreseeable future. Indianapolis has locked up its best receivers and QB for the next 4-6 years and will probably lock up Edgerrin James soon. That leaves very little cap room to improve the 4th worst defense in the NFL.

Finally, consider that the power in the AFC for the foreseeable future is firmly lodged in New England, Pittsburgh, and New York. And some of the up-and-comers are Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Buffalo. That’s a lot of potential frozen fields to overcome in December and January every year. Not to mention Denver and Kansas City. If the Colts don’t go 15-1 or 14-2, they will have to win on one or more of those fields every year. Their defense can’t do it, and their receivers can’t do it.

Peyton Manning will continue to compile great stats, passing records, and regular season wins. But he will never get to or win the Super Bowl as long as the makeup of this team stays the way it is. For Manning to win a Super Bowl, the Colts will have to change, and the change will have to be philosophical.

No comments: