Friday, January 21, 2005

NFC Championship: Falcons at Eagles

This might be going against conventional wisdom, and common sense, but I believe a snowy game would benefit the Atlanta Falcons. Snow will take away a big part of the passing game, and that means running suddenly becomes a bigger part of the game. Atlanta already has an edge in the running game, if the weather forces more running, that edge becomes bigger.

Michael Westbrook is the primary runner for the Eagles, but he is a threat because of his pass-catching abilities. He is a good runner, but not a dominant one. The Falcons, though, have 3 running threats. Warrick Dunn is the fast, slashing breakaway runner. TJ Duckett brings the power. And Michael Vick is a threat that must be dealt with on every play.

Donovan McNabb is mobile, but he is not the threat Vick is. Without Terrell Owens, the Eagles lose the deep threat in this game, and the Falcons can concentrate more on containing McNabb and the Eagles runners. Please don't talk about how the Eagles passed all over the Vikings, scored against Minnesota, blah, blah, blah... The Falcons are not the Vikings! The Vikings generated NO pass rush all day, the Falcons bring a great pass rush and a better run defense.

The Eagles defense is what will determine the winner in this game. They must slow the Falcons' runners and contain Vick. When Vick does try to pass, they must get pressure on him. In all 5 Falcons losses, Vick was sacked at least 3 times. Philadelphia definitely has the defense to win this game. They must stop the run first.

I believe there are two things to watch in this game. If the Falcons can get a combined 150 rushing yards, they should win. If the Eagles can throw the ball and get Westbrook involved and get him over 100 total yards, they should win.

I think this game will either be a big Eagles win, or a very close Falcons win. I am going with a close Falcons win, 24-20. Don't be surprised if a big special teams play decides this game.

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