Running Game Not as Important Anymore?

Pat Kirwan has written an interesting article on Superbowl.com where he talks about the decline of the rushing game in the playoffs recently.

He writes: So what is it? In seven of the 11 playoff games last year, the winning team did not have a 100-yard rusher. Not that 100 yards is a benchmark for running the ball, but it was passing yardage that determined winning more than a 100-yard rusher.

Well, with four playoff games in the books for January 2005, not one winning team (Jets, Colts, Vikings or Rams) had a 100-yard rushing performance. In fact, nobody from a winning team rushed for more than 66 yards. The Vikings' leading rusher was Daunte Culpepper with 54 yards. Imagine, a scrambling QB -- who wanted to throw the ball but couldn't find an open receiver -- was his team's leading rusher!

This is an excellent article and Mr Kirwan makes some very valid points. But, if he is trying to say that the rushing game isn't important to winning, he failed to make his case. In fact, a closer look shows that the rushing game is as important as ever.

It's true that no winning team last week had a 100-yard rusher. But 3 of the 4 winners out-rushed their opponents. Only the Colts failed to do so, by 2 yards.

Team Rushing Yards
St. Louis - 102, Seattle - 81
Jets - 126, San Diego - 100
Indy - 76, Denver - 78
Minn - 123, Green Bay - 105

Notice that not only did all 3 UPSET winners go over 100 yards, all 3 out-rushed their opponents. The running game is as vital as ever! Assuming you need a single rusher to get 100 doesn't hold up.

There are several reasons for the current trend that Mr Kirwan found.

Most teams are now using multiple backs and not relying on a single runner. The Rams have Faulk and Steven Jackson, the Jets used Martin and Lamont Jordan, the Vikings used Bennett, Onterrio Smith, and Culpepper. Defenses are stacking against the run, as mentioned in Kirwan's article, but offenses are countering by using 2 or 3 backs, not going pass-happy.

Culpepper did get many yards for the Vikings, but rush yards are rush yards. Mobile QBs are valuable because they can run. When you think of Vick, do you think of his passing accuracy or his running ability?

The other reason is that many teams are using their running backs as receivers more and more. A more accurate stat to look at these days is Yards From Scrimmage. Taking the Vikings as an example, Moe Williams (RB) had no rushing yards but 72 receiving yards. The Vikes' running backs had only 69 rush yards, but had 175 yards from scrimmage.

And if we look at past Super Bowls, the rushing stat becomes much more important. In the last 10 Super Bowls the winning team has out-rushed the loser 7 times, and was very close in another. That's 8 of 10 Super Bowls where the winner had the better running game. In the two games where the winner was clearly out-rushed, the games were fairly close.

In SB-30, Dallas beat Pittsburgh 27-17 despite being out-rushed 56-103. But O'Donnell threw 2 big interceptions that were quickly converted to TDs by the Cowboys. Defense turned the tide. In SB-34, St Louis was out-rushed 29-159, but Faulk had 107 yards from scrimmage. And also remember, Tennessee came up 1 yard short of sending that one into OT.

There may be a statistical trend showing the running game is not as important as before, but the numbers are misleading. Championships are won by teams that can run and play defense.