Rushing and Turnovers Decide Super Bowl

Defenses win championships. It's an old adage, but very true. There are many ways to measure great defenses, but turnover ratio is a good one to look at to see what affect turnovers have on the outcomes of Super Bowls.

On the other side of the ball, a good thing to look at is rushing yards. If a team can run the ball successfully, they have an excellent chance of winning. There have been a few pass-first teams to win the Super Bowl, but it is rare.

And to get a very good picture of how to win the Super Bowl, we just have to look at a combination of rush yards differential and turnover ratio. Win these two battles and you will win the Super Bowl, with very few exceptions.

Only twice in Super Bowl history has a team been out-rushed and lost the turnover battle and still come out on top on the scoreboard; the Baltimore Colts (SB-5) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (SB-14). And no team has accomplished this feat in 24 years.

So we can make a (not so) bold prediction. Whichever team can run the ball and get turnovers will win. By the way, if you look at how these teams got here, New England has a definite advantage in these areas.

A few other tidbits concerning rush yards differential and turnovers:

7 teams have been out-rushed in the SB and won.
4 Teams have lost the turnover battle and won.
No team has been +4 in turnover ratio and lost.
2 Teams have been -3 in turnover ratio and won.
Only 1 team (St Louis Rams) has been out-rushed by more than 100 yards and won.
SB-17 was the last time a team lost the turnover battle and won (Wash-27, Miami-17).
The winning teams have an all-time turnover ratio of +85!!
The winning teams have an all-time rush yards differential of +2,471 yards!!