Saturday, February 05, 2005

Keys to Winning the Super Bowl

Tomorrow is the big game, finally! We are all tired of the hype and just want the game to start. When they do kick it off on Sunday, both teams will have certain things they want to accomplish to win the game. Here are the keys to winning the Super Bowl for each team as I see them.

Philadelphia Eagles
Donovan McNabb. How McNabb plays will determine the outcome for the Eagles. He must be patient and avoid forcing any passes. If he throws 2 or more interceptions, he will put his team in a hole I don't think they can get out of. McNabb must also be mobile. That doesn't mean he has to run a lot, it just means he has to move in the pocket and run when necessary. We all know McNabb is capable of taking the game over, he just needs to take what the Patriots give him.

Michael Westbrook. How the Eagles use Westbrook will be a huge factor. With Owens less than 100% and Lewis out, Westbrook must be able to get some big runs and get open out of the backfield. If Westbrook goes over 120 total yards yards, the Eagles will be in this game at the end and could pull it out.

Eagles D. The Philadelphia defense must do 2 things; keep Corey Dillon under control, and don't give up the big plays. If they can stop Corey Dillon from making the big runs and force some 3rd-and-long situations, their job will get much easier. The most important thing for the Eagles, though, is to keep Brady in a small pocket, limit his mobility in the backfield, and prevent him from going deep. Philadelphia must force New England into several 3-and-outs, prevent the big strike, and force them to make long, ball-control drives.

Special Teams. This may turn out to be the biggest key of all for the Eagles. Their best hope of winning is to win the field-position battle. If they can keep New England bottled-up deep in the Patriot side of the field, they will be able to hold the Patriots' scoring to a minimum.


New England
Corey Dillon. If Dillon breaks 100 yards and has a couple of big runs, the Patriots should win. I look for Dillon to get the ball often and for the Patriots to run at Philadelphia's defensive ends.

Blocking Trotter. The Eagles defense became much better this year when Trotter became a full-time starting linebacker. The Eagles held their opponents to far fewer yards after Trotter came on than before. He is the key to their defense. The Patriots must get a blocker on Trotter to make the running game work. If they get him blocked, the running game will work.

Tom Brady. If Brady has time to throw, and Dillon is able to be a little successful running the ball, the Patriots will run away with this one. How the Patriots handle the well-timed Eagle blitzes will determine Brady's effectiveness. I look for Brady to go deep a couple of times early.

New England D. One stat says it all; the Patriots did not lose a game this year when they got at least 2 interceptions. McNabb is a good passer, but he tends to throw some bad ones. If the Patriots get hold of 2 of them, this game could be a blowout. The Patriots must contain Westbrook, and I believe that will be the plan. With Owens at less than 100%, the Patriots will be able to concentrate more on Westbrook. It will be ok for New England if McNabb gets a couple of short runs, but they must not let him get open lanes and 20-yard runs.


Bold Prediction
I predicted a Steelers/Falcons Super Bowl, so my track record isn't that great. But I am going to throw it out there anyway.

The first quarter will be closely played and field position will be huge. Sometime in the first half the Patriots will come up with a big turnover or two. Dillon will start to get established and the Patriots will go into halftime with a small lead. I think the Patriots will slowly pull away in the 3rd quarter and put it away in the 4th.

Dillon goes for 125+, Owens is a non-factor, McNabb gives up 2 picks, the Patriots linebackers control the 2nd half.

New England 38, Philadelphia 20

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