A lot of FFL articles these days are debating who is the #1 pick in Fantasy Football. It depends a little bit on the scoring system you use, but, in most cases, it should be Peyton Manning.
A lot of people will go after a running back just because that has been the best thing to do for the last few years. But there are many more quality RBs out there this year. You can take a QB earlier and still get a top RB if you do your homework.
Most people are taking LaDainian Tomlinson first. That's not a bad pick, and you probably can't go wrong, but I would also argue that Priest Holmes should still be considered for the #1 pick. He was on pace to have a huge season last year before he was injured. Holmes' age and work ethic are being questioned, but it's still a good idea to take him ahead of LT, just make sure you get his backup, Larry Johnson. Johnson did a more than adequate job filling in for Holmes last season.
But if you want to know who the real #1 should be, all you have to do is look at the Colts' schedule. They play the AFC South and the NFC West in 10 games. There is not a good defense to be seen in those games. Also, Indianapolis' defense has not improved much, so there could be some shootouts again. Considering his schedule, Manning should easily get to 44 TDs again this year, and that makes him the #1 pick.
Sunday, July 31, 2005
Friday, July 29, 2005
The Myth of Running Backs
The trend in Fantasy Football the last few years has been to draft running backs early and often. This has been the one position where there was little depth and only a handful of stellar players. If you didn't draft a top back, you struggled all year.
It looks like that trend is continuing this year. As one example, just look at this mock draft. Out of the first 24 picks, 20 were running backs. However, the running back position has changed drastically over the past 2 seasons. I don't believe there is still a need to pick running backs in the first 2 rounds to build your team.
In my league last year, those teams that chose running backs in the first 2 rounds did not fair as well as those who chose differently. Look here for a more detailed look. Take another look at the mock draft. At least 4 running backs were taken ahead of Marvin Harrison, including Chris Brown, that have no business being taken at that point.
I agree that having a top-notch RB is extremely important, but drafting 2 RBs with your first 2 picks may not be the best move anymore. There are many more RBs available this year, and that lowers the value of almost all of them. LaDainian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, and Shaun Alexander must be considered if they are there. But passing on Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, or Donovan McNabb to get a RB that doesn't stand head and shoulders above the next 10 on the list is foolish.
You should always draft the best available player, not follow some positional formula.
It looks like that trend is continuing this year. As one example, just look at this mock draft. Out of the first 24 picks, 20 were running backs. However, the running back position has changed drastically over the past 2 seasons. I don't believe there is still a need to pick running backs in the first 2 rounds to build your team.
In my league last year, those teams that chose running backs in the first 2 rounds did not fair as well as those who chose differently. Look here for a more detailed look. Take another look at the mock draft. At least 4 running backs were taken ahead of Marvin Harrison, including Chris Brown, that have no business being taken at that point.
I agree that having a top-notch RB is extremely important, but drafting 2 RBs with your first 2 picks may not be the best move anymore. There are many more RBs available this year, and that lowers the value of almost all of them. LaDainian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, and Shaun Alexander must be considered if they are there. But passing on Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, or Donovan McNabb to get a RB that doesn't stand head and shoulders above the next 10 on the list is foolish.
You should always draft the best available player, not follow some positional formula.
Monday, July 25, 2005
SI Wrong About Owens, Loafers, etc, etc
A few years ago I cancelled my subscription to Sports Illustrated. Mostly because the writers seemed a bit uninformed and seemed to be a little more political than "objective" sports writers should be. Today I was reminded of those reasons again.
I saw the headline for this article, and decided to give it a read. So many things are wrong with it that I just had to say something.
Michael Silver uses the first 2 paragraphs listing just a few of the reasons that Terrell Owens shouldn't get a new contract, then demands that Philly pay Owens whatever he wants.
He writes: "That said, let's get real. The man is good. He is, despite what many in the Eagles organization would have you believe, the biggest reason the team finally shed its big-game choker label and reached a Super Bowl. And, most of all, when the franchise faced its biggest moment in nearly a quarter-decade, T.O. shook off a severe ankle injury and took one for the team -- OUT OF THE GOODNESS OF HIS HEART."
Mr. Silver wasn't paying attention to the Eagles last season, or he would know how flawed that statement is. The Eagles defense rose up at the end of last season to become dominant. It was their defense that got them over the hump and into the Super Bowl. And T.O. never does anything out of the goodness of his heart! He is all about T.O., and he doesn't give a damn about even his own teammates.
And he's not done: "To review: Owens broke his right leg and suffered severe ligament damage to his ankle in the team's third-to-last regular season game and, after undergoing surgery, was told by doctors he'd need at least two months to heal. The Eagles won a pair of playoff games without him to reach the Super Bowl, at which point T.O. pronounced himself fit to return more than a week-and-a-half ahead of schedule.
Sure, the Eagles said. Go ahead. As long as you sign this injury waiver indemnifying us in case you reinjure the ankle.
Say WHAT?"
Yes, Mr. Silver, the Eagles wanted to protect themselves. If they hadn't signed the waiver and Owens had done more severe and possibly permanent damage to his ankle, you would have been one of the first to say how foolish the Eagles were to allow Owens to play without protecting themselves! The Eagles organization didn't have much choice.
Then this: "And please, Philly fans, spare me the rants about how the Eagles won two playoff games with T.O. on the sideline. For one thing, the NFC sucks, so don't read too much into those triumphs over the Vikings and Falcons, each of whom was flummoxed by the Philly D. Need I remind you that with T.O. out, Donovan McNabb's targets were Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell. Next argument?"
Mr Silver contradicts himself badly here. First he said Owens was the reason the Eagles made it to the Super Bowl, but in this paragraph he argues the opposite, admitting that the defense was the reason the Eagles moved on and that the competition was not very good. Next argument? How could I possibly argue? You openly ignore facts, then admit to my theory being correct, then challenge me to argue?!? But I guess I'm ranting.
Terrell Owens has become a poison to the Philadelphia Eagles. To pay him more money would be the single stupidest thing any franchise ever did. Especially after everything the organization did to get Owens out of Pittsburgh, and into Philly in the first place. The Eagles should trade him away as quickly as they possibly can.
Want to know how loved Owens is around the league? He mentioned Atlanta as a place he would be willing to grace with his presence. Do you see the folks in Atlanta rioting to get him?
I mentioned in the opening here that the politics of the SI writers was also a reason not to read them. And Mr. Silver doesn't disappoint, using the Northwestern lacrosse team's completely immature, tacky, and disrespectful wearing of thongs to the White House as an opportunity to do his liberal bandwagon jumping act, and pile on to Karl Rove. As if Mr. Silver had clue one what is going on in the Grand Jury room! Way to insult over half of your target audience, Mr. Silver!
I won't be renewing that SI subscription any time soon, if this is what passes for reasoned opinion!
I saw the headline for this article, and decided to give it a read. So many things are wrong with it that I just had to say something.
Michael Silver uses the first 2 paragraphs listing just a few of the reasons that Terrell Owens shouldn't get a new contract, then demands that Philly pay Owens whatever he wants.
He writes: "That said, let's get real. The man is good. He is, despite what many in the Eagles organization would have you believe, the biggest reason the team finally shed its big-game choker label and reached a Super Bowl. And, most of all, when the franchise faced its biggest moment in nearly a quarter-decade, T.O. shook off a severe ankle injury and took one for the team -- OUT OF THE GOODNESS OF HIS HEART."
Mr. Silver wasn't paying attention to the Eagles last season, or he would know how flawed that statement is. The Eagles defense rose up at the end of last season to become dominant. It was their defense that got them over the hump and into the Super Bowl. And T.O. never does anything out of the goodness of his heart! He is all about T.O., and he doesn't give a damn about even his own teammates.
And he's not done: "To review: Owens broke his right leg and suffered severe ligament damage to his ankle in the team's third-to-last regular season game and, after undergoing surgery, was told by doctors he'd need at least two months to heal. The Eagles won a pair of playoff games without him to reach the Super Bowl, at which point T.O. pronounced himself fit to return more than a week-and-a-half ahead of schedule.
Sure, the Eagles said. Go ahead. As long as you sign this injury waiver indemnifying us in case you reinjure the ankle.
Say WHAT?"
Yes, Mr. Silver, the Eagles wanted to protect themselves. If they hadn't signed the waiver and Owens had done more severe and possibly permanent damage to his ankle, you would have been one of the first to say how foolish the Eagles were to allow Owens to play without protecting themselves! The Eagles organization didn't have much choice.
Then this: "And please, Philly fans, spare me the rants about how the Eagles won two playoff games with T.O. on the sideline. For one thing, the NFC sucks, so don't read too much into those triumphs over the Vikings and Falcons, each of whom was flummoxed by the Philly D. Need I remind you that with T.O. out, Donovan McNabb's targets were Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell. Next argument?"
Mr Silver contradicts himself badly here. First he said Owens was the reason the Eagles made it to the Super Bowl, but in this paragraph he argues the opposite, admitting that the defense was the reason the Eagles moved on and that the competition was not very good. Next argument? How could I possibly argue? You openly ignore facts, then admit to my theory being correct, then challenge me to argue?!? But I guess I'm ranting.
Terrell Owens has become a poison to the Philadelphia Eagles. To pay him more money would be the single stupidest thing any franchise ever did. Especially after everything the organization did to get Owens out of Pittsburgh, and into Philly in the first place. The Eagles should trade him away as quickly as they possibly can.
Want to know how loved Owens is around the league? He mentioned Atlanta as a place he would be willing to grace with his presence. Do you see the folks in Atlanta rioting to get him?
I mentioned in the opening here that the politics of the SI writers was also a reason not to read them. And Mr. Silver doesn't disappoint, using the Northwestern lacrosse team's completely immature, tacky, and disrespectful wearing of thongs to the White House as an opportunity to do his liberal bandwagon jumping act, and pile on to Karl Rove. As if Mr. Silver had clue one what is going on in the Grand Jury room! Way to insult over half of your target audience, Mr. Silver!
I won't be renewing that SI subscription any time soon, if this is what passes for reasoned opinion!
Friday, July 22, 2005
Bruschi Out for 2005
The Patriots will have to go without LB Tedy Bruschi this season. It's too bad, Bruschi is a great player and one of the good guys in sports.
New England would not have repeated as Champs this year, anyway. But this should certainly seal it. Not that they won't have a good season and make the playoffs, I just think there is too much working against them to three-peat.
Here's why they won't return to the Super Bowl:
1. They lost both coordinators. I don't care how good the replacements are, that's a lot of adjusting to do.
2. They're tired. They've basically played 3 seasons of football in 2 years. Better teams than the Patriots have failed to three-peat, and this is one reason why.
3. The AFC is getting better. Someone is going to knock them off.
4. No Bruschi.
New England would not have repeated as Champs this year, anyway. But this should certainly seal it. Not that they won't have a good season and make the playoffs, I just think there is too much working against them to three-peat.
Here's why they won't return to the Super Bowl:
1. They lost both coordinators. I don't care how good the replacements are, that's a lot of adjusting to do.
2. They're tired. They've basically played 3 seasons of football in 2 years. Better teams than the Patriots have failed to three-peat, and this is one reason why.
3. The AFC is getting better. Someone is going to knock them off.
4. No Bruschi.
Wednesday, July 20, 2005
Fantasy Football Real Player Value
Every one of us who has played Fantasy Football long enough knows that the hardest thing to do on Draft Day is to decide, at some point, between 2 players that play different positions. Which one will help the team the most?
A few years ago I read about Real Value. It is a simple way to compare QBs to RBs to WRs to TEs. It is also a great way to decide between 2 players at the same position that are comparable in value. Since I have been using this method to help me rank my players for the draft, I have been doing very well. I even won my league last year.
Now, Real Value is not a magic pill that will make your roster unbeatable, but it is by far the best draft tool I have found. It's a simple math formula that gives equal weight to the skill positions.
The key to drafting is not knowing how many points a player will score during the year. The key is to know which player will provide more points than the other players, or more value. If you are considering a QB, 2 RBs, and a WR, which one will have the most value? The real question is; how many more points are those players worth than the next player on the list? That is where Real Value comes in.
Calculating Real Value is easy. Once you have your players ranked by position and have assigned a point value to each of them, simply draw a line under the last player who would be considered a 'Starter'. For example, if you have 10 teams in your league, there will be 10 starting QBs each week, so draw a line under the 10th QB. Now look at the points for the 11th QB, the first non-starter. Take those points and subtract them from every QB on your list. The result is the Real Value for each QB.
Now do the same thing for the other positions. If you have 2 starting RBs and 10 teams, the 21st ranked RB is the first non-starter, and you subtract his points from all of the other RBs. Same for the WRs and TEs, using the same formula.
Now you can rank your players by Real Value and know exactly where each of them stands in comparison to players at other positions. It is a great way to prepare your draft Cheat Sheet.
In my league last year, going off of the point totals for all players projected over 16 games, here is the 2004 Real Value of the top 10 Players. This is not for the upcoming season, but a view of who the best players to have last year were. Real Value in parentheses.
1. Priest Holmes (128)
2. Peyton Manning (115)
3. Shaun Alexander (97)
4. Daunte Culpepper (96)
5. LaDainian Tomlinson (92)
6. Muhsin Muhammed (86)
7. Terrell Owens (85)
8. Tiki Barber (71)
9. Randy Moss (68)
10. Marvin Harrison (68)
It would be hard to argue against that first 5 going into this year's draft. Some people have argued with me over how well this works, but I have not failed to make the playoffs since starting to use it.
As I said, this is not the only thing you need to have a winning season. Here is my own personal list of the things you must do to win:
1. Draft well. This is where Real Value helps.
2. Have good depth on your roster. Injuries, and how you adjust to them, will make a bigger difference to your success than anything else.
3. React quickly. If someone is hot, get them. If a stud goes down and their backup is available, get them. By picking up Reuben Droughns and Larry Johnson during the season last year, I was able to keep winning all the way throughout the Championship.
4. Don't make bad trades. Real Value can help here, too.
Pretty simple, eh? Of course there is a lot more to it than that. Real Value is a starting point. How you come up with the points you assign to the players on your draft list will also affect Real Value. And there is no way to really know how many points a player will score. There are a lot of factors. Use Real Value only after you have done the legwork and assigned points to your players.
A few years ago I read about Real Value. It is a simple way to compare QBs to RBs to WRs to TEs. It is also a great way to decide between 2 players at the same position that are comparable in value. Since I have been using this method to help me rank my players for the draft, I have been doing very well. I even won my league last year.
Now, Real Value is not a magic pill that will make your roster unbeatable, but it is by far the best draft tool I have found. It's a simple math formula that gives equal weight to the skill positions.
The key to drafting is not knowing how many points a player will score during the year. The key is to know which player will provide more points than the other players, or more value. If you are considering a QB, 2 RBs, and a WR, which one will have the most value? The real question is; how many more points are those players worth than the next player on the list? That is where Real Value comes in.
Calculating Real Value is easy. Once you have your players ranked by position and have assigned a point value to each of them, simply draw a line under the last player who would be considered a 'Starter'. For example, if you have 10 teams in your league, there will be 10 starting QBs each week, so draw a line under the 10th QB. Now look at the points for the 11th QB, the first non-starter. Take those points and subtract them from every QB on your list. The result is the Real Value for each QB.
Now do the same thing for the other positions. If you have 2 starting RBs and 10 teams, the 21st ranked RB is the first non-starter, and you subtract his points from all of the other RBs. Same for the WRs and TEs, using the same formula.
Now you can rank your players by Real Value and know exactly where each of them stands in comparison to players at other positions. It is a great way to prepare your draft Cheat Sheet.
In my league last year, going off of the point totals for all players projected over 16 games, here is the 2004 Real Value of the top 10 Players. This is not for the upcoming season, but a view of who the best players to have last year were. Real Value in parentheses.
1. Priest Holmes (128)
2. Peyton Manning (115)
3. Shaun Alexander (97)
4. Daunte Culpepper (96)
5. LaDainian Tomlinson (92)
6. Muhsin Muhammed (86)
7. Terrell Owens (85)
8. Tiki Barber (71)
9. Randy Moss (68)
10. Marvin Harrison (68)
It would be hard to argue against that first 5 going into this year's draft. Some people have argued with me over how well this works, but I have not failed to make the playoffs since starting to use it.
As I said, this is not the only thing you need to have a winning season. Here is my own personal list of the things you must do to win:
1. Draft well. This is where Real Value helps.
2. Have good depth on your roster. Injuries, and how you adjust to them, will make a bigger difference to your success than anything else.
3. React quickly. If someone is hot, get them. If a stud goes down and their backup is available, get them. By picking up Reuben Droughns and Larry Johnson during the season last year, I was able to keep winning all the way throughout the Championship.
4. Don't make bad trades. Real Value can help here, too.
Pretty simple, eh? Of course there is a lot more to it than that. Real Value is a starting point. How you come up with the points you assign to the players on your draft list will also affect Real Value. And there is no way to really know how many points a player will score. There are a lot of factors. Use Real Value only after you have done the legwork and assigned points to your players.
Ricky's Back, So What's the Good News?
I have not done much blogging lately. Coaching baseball, fixing cars, lawncare, etc, etc, have taken most of my time. Besides, there hasn't been much going on. What a coincidence that, as I get more time to get back to this, Ricky Williams re-joins the Dolphins.
I have a hard time finding any positive in this. There are reports that Williams is contacting his Once and Future teammates and trying to smooth things over. But what can you possibly say to someone you burned so badly?!?
"Sorry, had things to do, places to go!"??
No teammate will be happy about having Ricky back. If Williams dogs even one play, those teammates will hate him and know he is only back for the money. If they start winning, Williams will only be tolerated. Chemistry is a big part of every team, and Nick Saban has just messed with the chemistry.
Personally, I think Williams is getting off easy. Hopefully, some big hungry linebacker will feel the same way and let Ricky know how the whole team really feels about his return.
I have a hard time finding any positive in this. There are reports that Williams is contacting his Once and Future teammates and trying to smooth things over. But what can you possibly say to someone you burned so badly?!?
"Sorry, had things to do, places to go!"??
No teammate will be happy about having Ricky back. If Williams dogs even one play, those teammates will hate him and know he is only back for the money. If they start winning, Williams will only be tolerated. Chemistry is a big part of every team, and Nick Saban has just messed with the chemistry.
Personally, I think Williams is getting off easy. Hopefully, some big hungry linebacker will feel the same way and let Ricky know how the whole team really feels about his return.
Travis Henry to Tennessee
The Buffalo Bills finally got their third round pick for Travis Henry, and he is now a Titan. The strange thing about this trade is that Henry wanted out of Buffalo because he believes he is a starter. But then he accepted a trade to basically share another backfield, this time with Chris Brown. I guess Henry just wanted out of Buffalo. Can't blame him.
The Bills got what they wanted for Henry, but are now without a solid backup for McGahee. With a first year starter at QB, not being deep in the backfield could hurt the Bills. If Losman struggles and the defenses can key on McGahee, it could be a long, painful season for him.
For us FFLers, Henry's stock doesn't climb much unless Brown continues to struggle with injuries. This also lowers the value of Brown. We will have to watch how this shakes out in the pre-season.
The Bills got what they wanted for Henry, but are now without a solid backup for McGahee. With a first year starter at QB, not being deep in the backfield could hurt the Bills. If Losman struggles and the defenses can key on McGahee, it could be a long, painful season for him.
For us FFLers, Henry's stock doesn't climb much unless Brown continues to struggle with injuries. This also lowers the value of Brown. We will have to watch how this shakes out in the pre-season.
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