Week 2 Review

What we larned in Week 2:

• The Chiefs suck more than the Raiders.
• The Patriots are still a playoff team, and Matt Cassel ain't bad.
• The Broncos' offense is a machine!! The defense? Not so much. Can someone please tackle Darren Sproles?
• The Football Gods do not look kindly on those who run up a score and then run their mouths. Philip Rivers and the Chargers learned the hard way.
• Donovan McNabb will show flashes of brilliance and complete lameness on the same play. He still hasn't proven he can win a big game in the clutch. Over-rated.
• DeSean Jackson, what the hell was that? That's why Parcells hates rookies!
• The Browns were a fluke and won't be anywhere near .500 this year because it's only a matter of time before the less intelligent start calling for Brady Quinn to start. When that happens, the team is doomed.
• The only thing standing between the Vikings and a Super Bowl appearance is a quarterback. And Gus Ferrotte is not the answer.
• Peyton's getting his timing back.

I had about the same track record with my predictions last week as the TV pundits. I'm not afraid to show it:

Going Off

Terrel Owens - Playing at home, on Monday night, against the Eagles? I'm guessing over 100 yards and 2 TDs, maybe a lot more. TO is a player I kind of like. He has finally matured and is showing he can be a team guy. Nailed it!
Larry Johnson - I'm a big Broncos fan and a Raider-hater, so last Monday was like a slice of heaven. After all the hype of the Raiders improvement, it turns out Blew it!they still suck. Big time! Larry Johnson should roll this week. 150 yds, 1 or 2 TDs. Blew it!
Peyton Manning - If Aaron Rodgers can do that to the Vikings secondary, Manning should have a career day. Especially coming off a loss. 350 yds and 3 TDs. (I hope I'm wrong about this one, I'm also a Vikings fan.) Close, but that doesn't count.
Brandon Jacobs - The Giants defense should keep the Rams bottled up all day and the Giants running game will be huge. Jacobs should break 120 yds and at least 1 TD. The Running game was huge, the defense kept the Rams down, but Jacobs got pulled because it was a blowout. I'm calling this one nailed.
Santonio Holmes/Hines Ward - Cleveland got exposed last week and Big Ben will take advantage. Holmes and Ward should both have big days. I think Holmes will easily break 100 yds and at least 1 TD. Needless to say, Big Ben should also go off. A hurricane, really!?
Carson Palmer - This one's a stretch, but I think the Bengals might have a little pride left and should rebound at home. Also, the Titans have had a weird week and could be way off their game. Of course this could go the other way and be a huge game for Kerry Collins. If that's the case, start up the Marvin Lewis "time-to-go" watch. It went the other way, the clock is ticking. You have to be impressed by Jeff Fisher.


Going Down

Donovan McNabb - McNabb has a history of stumbling after he has a huge game like he did last week. Dallas has something to prove. I think McNabb gets about 200 yds and 1 TD. Not bad, but a far cry from last week. McNabb didn't collapse like I expected and had Jackson not pulled his dumbass rookie routine McNabb's numbers would look even better. But his second half was not good. I got this one half-right (Which also means it's half-wrong)
The Raiders - Did I mention I'm a Raider-hater? My 2 favorite teams are the Broncos and whoever is playing the Raiders. They looked pathetic Monday night and I would bench any Raider I had on my roster. Except McFadden. But don't get used to it, they only play the Chiefs twice.
Michael Turner - Turner the Burner was great last week. But that was the Lions. It was also the first game Atlanta played with so many new faces. The Bucs should be better prepared. If they're smart, they stack the line and make the rookie QB throw. I can't see Turner getting to 100 yards. He might get 1 TD though. Someone that big and fast should always score from inside the 2-yard line. Nailed it!
Antonio Gates - The Broncos always hold Gates in check. Too bad I can't say the same of LT and Chris Chambers.They held Gates down a little, LT was hurt, and Chambers killed em. I would say I pretty much nailed this one.


Upset Specials
I like the Jets over the Patriots in a close one. Cassel will be ok, but he will need time. They sign Favre and then run 4 times on the goal line? Really!?

The Broncos have struggled against the Chargers lately. But they get the Chargers at home while SD is banged up. Cutler looked REALLY good and he gets Marshall back. I think the Broncos will pull it out. Nailed it! Thanks, Joe!

Finally, the big one is Detroit over Green Bay. Detroit got beat up pretty bad, but they did make some nice adjustments last week. They're coming home and will try some ball control. The Packers had a huge Monday night against the Vikings. I think they may stumble a bit today and the Lions win a close one. Could I be more wrong? Nope!

Going Off .... Going Down: Week 2

I'm no "expert', like those guys on ESPN (insert sarcastic eyebrow raise here), but here's my list of players who will go off or go down in flames this week.

Going Off

Terrel Owens - Playing at home, on Monday night, against the Eagles? I'm guessing over 100 yards and 2 TDs, maybe a lot more. TO is a player I kind of like. He has finally matured and is showing he can be a team guy.
Larry Johnson - I'm a big Broncos fan and a Raider-hater, so last Monday was like a slice of heaven. After all the hype of the Raiders improvement, it turns out they still suck. Big time! Larry Johnson should roll this week. 150 yds, 1 or 2 TDs.
Peyton Manning - If Aaron Rodgers can do that to the Vikings secondary, Manning should have a career day. Especially coming off a loss. 350 yds and 3 TDs. (I hope I'm wrong about this one, I'm also a Vikings fan.)
Brandon Jacobs - The Giants defense should keep the Rams bottled up all day and the Giants running game will be huge. Jacobs should break 120 yds and at least 1 TD.
Santonio Holmes/Hines Ward - Cleveland got exposed last week and Big Ben will take advantage. Holmes and Ward should both have big days. I think Holmes will easily break 100 yds and at least 1 TD. Needless to say, Big Ben should also go off.
Carson Palmer - This one's a stretch, but I think the Bengals might have a little pride left and should rebound at home. Also, the Titans have had a weird week and could be way off their game. Of course this could go the other way and be a huge game for Kerry Collins. If that's the case, start up the Marvin Lewis "time-to-go" watch.


Going Down

Donovan McNabb - McNabb has a history of stumbling after he has a huge game like he did last week. Dallas has something to prove. I think McNabb gets about 200 yds and 1 TD. Not bad, but a far cry from last week.
The Raiders - Did I mention I'm a Raider-hater? My 2 favorite teams are the Broncos and whoever is playing the Raiders. They looked pathetic Monday night and I would bench any Raider I had on my roster.
Michael Turner - Turner the Burner was great last week. But that was the Lions. It was also the first game Atlanta played with so many new faces. The Bucs should be better prepared. If they're smart, they stack the line and make the rookie QB throw. I can't see Turner getting to 100 yards. He might get 1 TD though. Someone that big and fast should always score from inside the 2-yard line.
Antonio Gates - The Broncos always hold Gates in check. Too bad I can't say the same of LT and Chris Chambers.


Upset Specials
I like the Jets over the Patriots in a close one. Cassel will be ok, but he will need time.

The Broncos have struggled against the Chargers lately. But they get the Chargers at home while SD is banged up. Cutler looked REALLY good and he gets Marshall back. I think the Broncos will pull it out.

Finally, the big one is Detroit over Green Bay. Detroit got beat up pretty bad, but they did make some nice adjustments last week. They're coming home and will try some ball control. The Packers had a huge Monday night against the Vikings. I think they may stumble a bit today and the Lions win a close one.

Yes, I Drafted Brady

Faced with the choice at #5 of drafting Tom Brady or Steven Jackson, I chose Brady. The Rams showed in Week 1 why every Jackson owner should be nervous. They're not good and the o-line still has issues.

So when Brady went down my first reaction was "There goes the season!". I instantly regretted not having taken a running back with that first pick. But looking at the RBs who were available at the time I took Brady, my reasoning and decision were sound. It's just bad luck, right? I knew the football gods were peeved at the Patriots, but I didn't know they were THIS mad!!

Brady was the right choice and now that I've had time to think about it, this is not the end. This is a serious challenge, but we've all faced those before. I drafted Terrell Davis the year he blew out his knee, and Fred Taylor, and others. It's part of the game.

If you're in my position, don't panic!! And don't fall for the "Matt Cassell is a respectable replacement, he still has Moss" crap. There are other, better QBs to be found. In our league I drafted Jake Delhomme as my backup QB. That's looking pretty good right now. We also had Chad Pennington available, and he looked decent against the Jets. So Brady goes on IR and Pennington becomes the backup.

And don't take one of those asinine trade offers from someone trying to take advantage of your situation. Do not give up another top draft choice reaching for a middle of the road QB.

The problem I have is, Brady to Delhomme is a loss of about 12-15 points per game in our league. So I have to find a way to replace those points. Time to throw out the handcuffs I accumulated and start looking for players at other positions where I can make up those points. So, my goal is to replace those 12-15 points by getting 4-5 points better at other positions.

Champions are not built in the draft, but from the waiver wire and through trades. My challenge is to build properly without panicking and to have patience. I won't be able to get back on track in one week.

So here's what to look for: If your second running back or flex player is not looking quite so good, pick up Sammy Morris from the Patriots. He looked better than Maloney and should be available in a lot of leagues. New England will be more balanced now and Morris looks better in short-yardage. Don't be surprised if he becomes the primary back real soon.

The other option I'm looking at is the Bills' TE, Robert Royal and Carolina's TE Dante Rosario. Rosario had a huge game against the Chargers.

So I get a little better this week, and hopefully a little better next week. Losing Brady hurts! A lot!! But it's not catastrophic. Get 2-4 points better each week and by week 10 you're looking like a champ again.

Early Draft Lists

A few hardcores are out there putting up draft lists, and for the most part they look about like we all expect. But I do have one issue with these early lists. I am a huge Adrian Peterson (Vikings version) fan and I think he is a great back. But listing him as the number 2 back behind Tomlinson seems risky. Were these guys watching the Vikings' last six games?

I will give my reasons for lowering expectations of AP in another post. For now I think this just points out one problem with how some pundits and "experts" rely on too few stats to make these lists. AP is a perfect example of how you have to really analyze a player's stats.

Peterson had a few huge games, and he was hurt for a few games, and he had some very poor games. I know this because he was on my fantasy team last year. He carried me to some success, then my team stunk it up when it mattered most and AP was nowhere to be seen.

When you analyze a player's stats you have to look beyond the season totals. You need to look at their first 8 games and compare to their last 8 games. You need to look at their opponents, whether they were hurt, and whether their backups also did well. And you need to look at their game averages and "modified game averages" (I'll explain that in yet another post).

Doing research is critical, and you have to wonder how much was done by the people making the lists. You also have to wonder if they watched entire Viking games at the end of last season, or just the highlights. Peterson is a good back and definitely a top 5 back. But #2? The stats and the way he produced at the end of last season don't support that.

It's Never Too Early For Draft Prep

Over the years I have tried various things to prepare for my fantasy football drafts. One thing is true, no matter what: The more effort I put into me preparation, the more successful I've been. For the past two years I've been busy with school and work and haven't spent much time on research. I finished in 5th place both years. The last time I spent a lot of time preparing properly for the draft, I won the championship. Seems obvious, but a lot of people just don't spend the time on draft prep.

Many FFLers walk into their drafts with a couple pages or a magazine. I refer to them as the prize pool. The money the champ wins comes directly from these people. Most of these people are basing their decisions on last year's stats, and they are not evaluating the meaning of those stats.

Over the next few weeks I will share some of the stats I use. Most good FFLers will be familiar with most of them. Hopefully, everyone can benefit. I am also hoping a few people will let me know about their own stats and how they're used. I will be talking about previous year's season stats, half-season stats, game average, modified game average, strength of schedule, and more. The only way to be successful is to be 100% prepared at your your draft. The next few articles will be about getting prepared.

Back To What I Enjoy Doing

After a more than two year vacation, the ArDubby blog is back. I have been away getting my Bachelor's degree (long overdue) and have finally finished. There was little time for blogging, or even for football. There were a few times when I thought there was light at the end of the tunnel, and it turned out to be some idiot with a flashlight going the other way. But it's finally over.

I have also decided to spend more time on Fantasy Football this time around. However, I reserve the right to complain about anything I feel like. Over the last two seasons my Fantasy Teams have suffered from a lack of attention. I intend to get back on track this year and will share what I can with the handful of people who might decide to join me.

I am not an "expert" on Fantasy Football. But I have been very successful in my own league and have spent the last 10 years as my league's commissioner. I'll share my links, some of my own research, and my opinions of the so-called experts who hand out bad advice on a weekly basis. It may be early, but now is the time to get the research done. I'll share what I can.