Early Draft Lists

A few hardcores are out there putting up draft lists, and for the most part they look about like we all expect. But I do have one issue with these early lists. I am a huge Adrian Peterson (Vikings version) fan and I think he is a great back. But listing him as the number 2 back behind Tomlinson seems risky. Were these guys watching the Vikings' last six games?

I will give my reasons for lowering expectations of AP in another post. For now I think this just points out one problem with how some pundits and "experts" rely on too few stats to make these lists. AP is a perfect example of how you have to really analyze a player's stats.

Peterson had a few huge games, and he was hurt for a few games, and he had some very poor games. I know this because he was on my fantasy team last year. He carried me to some success, then my team stunk it up when it mattered most and AP was nowhere to be seen.

When you analyze a player's stats you have to look beyond the season totals. You need to look at their first 8 games and compare to their last 8 games. You need to look at their opponents, whether they were hurt, and whether their backups also did well. And you need to look at their game averages and "modified game averages" (I'll explain that in yet another post).

Doing research is critical, and you have to wonder how much was done by the people making the lists. You also have to wonder if they watched entire Viking games at the end of last season, or just the highlights. Peterson is a good back and definitely a top 5 back. But #2? The stats and the way he produced at the end of last season don't support that.